Bullets Fever

ATTENTION: Bullets Fever is moving to Bulletsforever.com

2006-12-10T13:01:00.000-08:00

A while ago, I casually mentioned that there was big news happening with the site in the near future. Ladies and gentlemen, the future has officially arrived.

Bullets Fever is officially moving to bulletsforever.com. That's right, I'm now going to be blogging for Sports Blog Nation. Why Bullets Forever? Blame the SB Nation guys. They started building the site under that url and neither of us wanted to change back. I kind of like the ring anyway, so it was probably a blessing that they got the url wrong initially.

In case you don't know, Sports Blog Nation is arguably the premier sports blogging network on the internet, and it's home to some amazing team blogs, including Blogabull, Sactown Royalty, Golden State of Mind, Blogging the Boys, Sunday Morning Quarterback, U Dub Dish, Athletics Nation, and many more. They're adding more basketball bloggers and I've signed on to be their Wizards guy.

So why make the switch? There are a ton of reasons. In no particular order.

1. Community: In case you haven't noticed, I've bent over backwards on this site to try to make Bullets Fever a community website. I've posed discussion questions at the end of each entry in an attempt to empower you, the reader. Unfortunately, there's only so much you can do on blogger. However, SB Nation has some amazing features that allow you guys to actively participate in the Bullets Forever community. They have these features called "Diaries" that basically allow you guys to create your own mini blog entries. You also have the power to easily comment on my own posts. All you have to do is create an account. It literaly takes two seconds. Just give an e-mail address, and you're pretty much all set.

2. Exposure: Not gonna lie. SB Nation blogs get a ton of readers, and this move will give the blog a lot more exposure. The more readers a blog gets, the better a blog becomes. I'm hoping Bullets Forever can be the #1 independent source for Washington Wizards on the internet, and the move to SB Nation certainly helps with that goal.

3. The Layout: Blogger can be really frustrating to deal with, and I'm tired of fiddling around with margins and sidebar stuff only to get a so-so layout. The SB Nation sites have this revolutionary software called "Scoop" that makes their sites look freaking amazing. They created that cool logo and all the stuff on the sidebar (except for the links). Better yet, the stuff is insanely easy to use. So to sum it all up, better layout + easy to use=no brainer.

The content itself isn't going to change much. There will be open threads, game recaps, and all the other random stuff that already is here. I don't expect much of that to change.

So please, I encourage everyone to join me at bulletsforever.com. I've been blessed to have some awesome readers, and I hope that you all can still be here even as the site switches. Update your blogrolls and your feeds, and come along for the ride.

Once again, I welcome everyone to join me at bulletsforever.com!

Rockets 114, Wizards 109: Can I write a check?

2006-12-09T21:25:00.000-08:00

When Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison combine for 70 points, it's usually enough to get the Wizards the win. Tonight, however, it simply wasn't the case, as the Wizards fell to the Houston Rockets 114-109 at home.

In the game preview, I suggested that the Wizards let Yao and T-Mac get theirs and focus on stopping the rest of the team. Quite simply, it was a silly suggestion. Yao was unstoppable last night, as he constantly used his size and length to dominate Etan Thomas and the other Wizards centers. When he didn't score, he was fouled, and he hit 12 of 14 from the line. The Wizards had no chance against him last night. Before McGrady left the game with back spasims (be concerned, Rockets fans!), he was dominating on the perimeter with 28 points on 10 of 21 from the field. Finally, even with all of that, the Wizards still allowed 4 other guys to score in double figures. It was simply a dreadful defensive performance.

On the other end, the Big 3 played their game, but nobody else showed up. DeShawn Stevenson was 2 for 9, Etan Thomas 1 for 5, and Antonio Daniels 0 for 1. How in the world is Daniels only shooting one shot? That simply can't happen again. As good as Arenas, Butler, and Jamison are, they need a fourth scorer to do anything.

The defensive performance in particular is somewhat troubling. It's true that no other team has a guy like Yao, and the Wizards simply never have a chance to stop him. However, T-Mac should not be getting 28 points in such a short amount of time. The Wizards surrendered too many open jumpers to Shane Battier, Luther Head, and Juwan Howard. Once again, the Wizards struggled defensively to guard teams that play a half-court style. It happened in Chicago and it happened again last night.

I did see three encouraging signs, however. 38 free throws is really good, even if they gave up 38 to the Rockets. Jamison had a big game yesterday, and his production continues to be a major key for the team. Finally, Eddie opened up the bench, as Roger Mason, Calvin Booth, and even James Lang got into the game yesterday. I've been begging for this the entire season, and it finally seems like Jordan is getting the message. True, Booth and Lang probably only played because of Haywood's injury, but at least Jordan is making the effort.

All in all, it's been 20 games, and the Wizards are 9-11. They've proven they can beat bad teams and even a couple good ones. However, they have to beat good teams at home more consistently to reach the next level. They have two of those types of games next week against Denver and Miami. A sweep of those two teams will signal the Wizards are really back.

Postgame thoughts? What did you take away from the loss?

Open Thread: Game 20

2006-12-09T15:09:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 20
Rockets (13-6) vs. Wizards (9-10)
Verizon Center
7 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

Previous Matchups: Rockets 86, Wizards 82

Tonight, the Houston Rockets come into town to play the Wizards at 7 PM. A win would put the Wizards back at .500 for the first time since very early in the season.

Houston's a team I really like. They have two big stars and great surrounding role players. The key to their improvement this season has been defensively. Shane Battier has been a revelation on the defensive end all year, and Yao and T-Mac have stepped up their game on the defensive end. The Rockets are coming off games where they've held teams to 63 and 62 points, and they held the Wizards to only 82 points in the first matchup.

Offensively, the Wizards need to guard Tracy McGrady well. He's the one that makes the Rockets go, and he's really improved his offensive playmaking ability. Yao of course is the go-to-guy, but the Wizards have to be careful about doubling him because he's a great passer and will kick it out to open shooters. The Wizards have to make Yao and T-Mac beat them on their own. I would honestly suggest single covering Yao most of the game to take guys like Rafer Alston and Luther Head out of the game.

On the other end, Antawn Jamison remains the key. Last night's game was the first the Wizards won all year when he had under 18 points. The Rockets aren't going to give anything easily, so Jamison, Arenas, and Butler need to attack the tin. If the Rockets win the free throw battle tonight, it's a recipe for disaster.

Rockets Blogs: Rockets Blast, Clutch Fans.

The Wizards are at home, so I like their chances. Battier will probably stick to guarding Caron Butler, leaving Alston on Arenas. The Wizards stunk in the last game against the Rockets, and at home, I expect the offense to be much better. Guarding Yao will be key. He'll get his points, but you can't let him get his assists. The Wizards need to turn Houston into a two-man team to win this one.

Prediction: Wizards 94, Rockets 80

If you're online during the game, give a shout!

Wizards 113, Sixers 98: They did play the game, you know

2006-12-09T13:38:00.000-08:00

The big news of the game may have been Allen Iverson, but the Wizards and the Sixers did in fact play a game last night. After falling way behind early on, the Wizards turned things around emphatically and got a pretty easy 15 point win. Gilbert Arenas has another big game, and guys like Brendan Haywood and Roger Mason stepped up with big contributions off the bench.
Early on, the Sixers were playing with much more energy than the Wizards. Guys like Kyle Korver, Willie Greene, and Andre Iguodala were playing as if they had something to prove. Finally freed from the AI shadow, these guys had Phily up 46-26 midway through the second quarter. Then, the Wizards started to hit shots. Gilbert Arenas and DeShawn Stevenson hit key shots, and after Arenas’ buzzer-beating halftime three, the Wizards were only down by 4. It got better in the third quarter, as the Wizards finally got some easy hoops and took control of the game. Phily had nothing left in the fourth and the Wizards got their second road win of the year.

It took time, but the more talented team won. The 76ers simply were overmatched tonight in the talent department. When your best player can barely jump, you know you’re in trouble. The Sixers couldn’t stop the Wizards offensively once the Wizards pulled themselves together. All in all, the Wizards didn’t play their best game by any means. The Sixers shot nearly 50 percent from the field and didn’t turn the ball over. The Wizards won because they got to the line, shooting 30 free throws compared to 19 for the Sixers. Other than that, the Wizards didn’t really do anything crazy well. They had significantly more talent than the Sixers, and their offense ran circles around Phily’s porous half-court defense the entire game.

Without AI, the Sixers are a mess. Chris Webber is too old and everyone else is too one-dimensional and inexperienced. None of those young guys impressed me at all, and this team needs a major makeover fast. Life without Iverson simply isn’t going to be fun for Sixers fans.

Three plays in particular showed how bad the Sixers are during the third quarter.

With the score tied at 65, Caron Butler had the ball on the wing and dribbled aimlessly towards the middle, with Kyle Korver staying right with him. Despite this, Rodney Carney, who was guarding DeShawn Stevenson on the wing, takes his eye off his man and commits slightly towards Butler. Stevenson goes backdoor and Butler hits him for the easy jam as Carney just stood there helplessly. Probably the worst man defense I’ve ever seen.
Off a Sixers miss, Gilbert Arenas sees the Sixers getting back slowly and throws a long pass ahead to Stevenson. Carney and Steven Hunter are slow to get back, and Kevin Ollie is standing aimlessly in the middle of the court staring at the flight of the ball. Stevenson makes the catch and both Kyle Korver and Chris Webber run at him. Meanwhile, Brendan Haywood sneaks behind Ollie and is wide open on the other side. Easy alley oop, easy slam for Haywood. 71-65 Wizards.
78-73, final minute of the quarter. Haywood comes out and sets a high screen for Arenas at the top of the key. Steven Hunter and Kevin Ollie attempt to trap Arenas, but Ollie is easily picked off and Hunter cheats left when trying to hedge. Arenas splits the two and comes right down the lane. Korver and Webber both come to greet him, leaving Caron Butler wide open on the right side. Butler takes the pass and goes right to the rim. Carney, who had been guarding Stevenson on the other side, comes to meet him, but instead of holding his ground, Carney jumps in a feigned attempt to block the shot. Butler easily maneuvers around Carney in the air for the huge two-handed jam.

Three horrible defensive sequences helped to bring the Sixers down last night. The Wizards weren’t doing anything fancy, but the Sixers still had no idea how to rotate as a team. Phily is just a downright terrible defensive team.

As for the bigger news, I’ve heard Denver, Minnesota, the Clippers, Golden State, Seattle, Indiana, and even Boston mentioned as potential Iverson destinations. It appears the Sixers don’t want to deal him to an Eastern Conference club, so I doubt he ends up with Indy or Boston. Denver and Minnesota both sound good, but both break down in a hurry. A KG/Iverson or Melo/Iverson combo sounds great, but Minnesota would be even further in salary cap hell and Denver isn’t looking to add another scorer. Seattle and the Clippers sound the most intriguing to me. The Clippers could do it with Shaun Livingston or they could put together a Maggette/Mobley/Singelton/Sofoklis Schortsianitis package. Iverson and Elton Brand would get along really well together, and if Livingston stays, the Clippers would be right up there with the best in the West. Seattle also may work, possibly something like Rashard Lewis/Luke Ridnour/one of the young centers. Iverson and Ray Allen may be able to put Seattle back near the top again. Also, don’t rule out teams like Sacramento and Chicago. Both teams have imaginative GMs and interesting trade pieces. A Mike Bibby/Kevin Martin package is intriguing, and the Bulls could do it with a Ben Gordon/Luol Deng/P.J. Brown/ offer. Either way, expect the unexpected with an Iverson trade.

As for the Wizards, last night was a good win, and with Houston coming into town tonight, another victory would be huge.

Postgame thoughts? What did you think about the win?

Arenas at 24, or AI at 24?

2006-12-08T08:43:00.000-08:00

Editor's Note: I've just pulled an all-nighter, so actual clear writing just simply isn't going to happen at this moment. My apologies. -Pradamaster

With the Wizards traveling to Phily to face the 76ers, we get a chance to see a battle between two of basketball's most dynamic scoring point guards in Allen Iverson and Gilbert Arenas. The players are so similar it's uncanny. Both can be playmakers, but function best through explosive scoring ability with the ball in their hands. Iverson was more explosive, but Arenas has a better jumper and uses angles extremely well.

One commenter said a while ago that he'd rather have Iverson than Agent Zero right now. Considering AI is 31 and Arenas is 24, this makes no sense. But who was the better player at age 24? That's certainly still open to debate.

A quick look at the stats actually gives Arenas the overall advantage.

Iverson in 2000: 28.4 points, 4.7 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 2.1 steals, 42% field goal percentage, 34% 3 point percentage, 20.0 PER
Arenas in 2006: 29.3 points, 6.1 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 45% field goal percentage, 37% 3 point percentage, 23.8 PER

In terms of pure numbers, Arenas has the overwhelming advantage. The only categories Iverson has a leg up are in rebounds and steals, and the difference is negligable. Arenas has a moderate advantage in points and three point percentage and a significant advantage in assists, field goal percentage, and player efficiency rating. However, we also have to account changes in the rules that may account for Iverson's smaller scoring average. Scoring is up around the league, so it only makes sense that Arenas' scoring is better. In addition, Arenas' inconsistency is maddening, while Iverson's production was more level from game-to-game.

So now it's your turn. Who's the better player at age 24? Iverson, or Arenas? Explain your reasoning.

[edit]: I just woke up to see the Wizards getting their butts kicked by an Iverson-less Sixers team before turning it around now emphatically. Strange game. I'll have a lot more on the game itself and the news about Allen Iverson later on, but for now, I guess this can also be an open game thread.

Wizards 113, Knicks 102: No more monkey on our backs!

2006-12-06T23:20:00.000-08:00

The Wizards finally got their first win on the road tonight against the Knicks in the place where the road funk really started. They didn't even play well except for some insane shooting, so it's nice that they got a win not playing their best. The Knicks outrebounded the Wizards again and got to the line more, but Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison simply were hitting everything.

Of course, for the Knicks, playing at home usually is akin to playing a road game, so if you really want to be facetious, you could say the Wizards still haven't really won on the road. Whatever. At least they won away from the Verizon Center.

For more, I'm going to turn it over to Seth from Your New York Knicks, who attended the game and was kind enough to drop me an e-mail with his thoughts. Even though Seth's an enemy blogger, it's great to hear thoughts from someone who attended the game, and I really hope this can become a common practice in future games. Thanks, Seth!

Yo, here's a few thoughts on the Wiz from tonight's game:

- The Wiz as a team really seem to be an extension of Arenas. In the last Knicks-Wizards game, Arenas couldn't buy a bucket, and the team followed suit. Tonight, Gilbert hit just about everything (including a casual 40 footer after a whistle), and the Wizards followed suit. Streakiest team I've seen in a while.

- Speaking of Arenas, one of things that makes him so amazing, in my opinion, is that he's completely predictable. When he's hot, you can tell very early on in a play when and where's he gonna shoot. The entire crowd knows, his teammates know, and even the defender knows. But when he's hot like he was tonight, it just doesn't matter.

- I don't remember Antawn Jamison ever being anything more than an occasional three-point shooter, but he was ridiculous (6-8) tonight. Now that I look, he's been raining threes for most of the season.

- Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood are both total stiffs on offense (which makes Curry's performance look much worse.)

- Songaila and Ruffin are hurt, but even still, the Wiz are not a very deep team.

- Apparently, the Wizards shot 41 of 84, but off the top of my head I can remember about 3 or 4 misses. They were unbelievable.

Anyway, the Wizards looked quite fluid, and they are due much credit for completely sucking the life out of the Garden. It was impossible for them to lose when Jamison and Arenas were so damn perfect from the field. Congrats.

Thanks again Seth, and tell your team that the Wizards thank them for making it possible to finally get the monkey off our backs!

As a sidenote, I'm probably out of commission tomorrow due to finals, so I will probably see you Friday when the Wizards take on Phily. If anyone has anything long to say, send me an e-mail and I'll put it up tomorrow.

Postgame thoughts? What stood out during this game?

Open Thread: Game 18

2006-12-06T13:35:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 18
Wizards (7-10) vs. Knicks (7-13)
Madison Square Garden
7:30 PM
CSN, MSG, and NBA League Pass

Previous Matchup: Knicks 102, Wizards 82

Not much time to preview this thing in depth, but clearly, we cannot have a repeat of last time. Everything went wrong in that game. They didn't run an offense, they missed every shot, they failed to get any real rebounds, and they let Renaldo Balkman have a huge game. I hope it doesn't happen again.

Knicks Blogs: Knickerblogger, Your New York Knicks

I'll let Eddie Jordan have the last word.

"You have to grasp the opportunity, you have to grasp the moment and say, 'Look this is it, New York City, a team that beat us, really probably started a bad feeling in us. And this is a great opportunity, where it began. Let's end it.' And I think that's what they'll do," he said. "If you're going to win on the road, what better place than in New York City? It's a great place to play, our guys feel good about themselves after that performance last night, and I don't think there is, as Al Maguire would say, a pink elephant in the back of our minds or anything like that, that's gonna disrupt us and distort our focus. I think we feel good, we're jacked up. I think we all believe, from the players to us, that it's the energy and the confidence and the aggressiveness and yet the discipline we need to win on the road that we got last night."

Let's hope you're right, Eddie. I also agree and think it will stop tonight, but this team has baffled me before. Let's just say I'm not guaranteeing anything.

Prediction: Wizards 104, Knicks 94

If you're online during the game, give a shout!

[edit]: In honor of the Knicks, here's the video of Nate Robinson's travel from last week.

Wizards 106, Mavericks 97: HIBACHI!

2006-12-05T14:41:00.000-08:00

For three quarters, the Wizards played possibly the best game they played in the last two years. A subpar fourth quarter made the Wizards’ performance look a lot worse than it really was.

The Wizards did two things very well. First, they really moved the ball well offensively. When the Wizards struggle offensively, it’s because there is too much one-on-one play. With Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, the Wizards have two fantastic one-on-one guys they can depend on when the shot clock goes down, but it’s dangerous to think they can just go one-on-one every single possession. It really wasn’t surprising to see than Antawn Jamison, a guy whose production rises when he’s in the flow of the offense, had his best game of the season last night. Dallas is a tough defensive team, especially inside, so to get all those open looks was really encouraging.

The other thing the Wizards did unbelievably well was they pounded Dallas on the glass. That really shocked me when I looked at the numbers. The Wizards outrebounded a very good Dallas rebounding team 53-39! That’s really solid, especially considering Dallas’ incredible offensive rebounding ability. Etan Thomas was an absolute monster last night with 10 points, 11 boards, and that one block on Devin Harris. That block was a play that really set the tone for the entire game. The Wizards showed tons of energy on defense and locked down on a really explosive Dallas team. Jason Terry, Josh Howard, and Devin Harris shot a combined 5 for 23. If you do that, you’ll beat Dallas.

While Arenas was huge with 38 points and 8 assists, (you listening, Michael Redd! You can score a shitload of points and be a good playmaker. It’s possible) the key to this game was Jamison. Unsilent pointed out a couple days ago that the Wizards are a completely different team when Jamison is playing well, and tonight showed it. Jamison’s the one guy that really needs to get his points in the flow of the offense. If the offense becomes too much based on one-on-one play, Jamison ends up trying to overcompensate and jacks up bad 19 foot jumpers. This also prevents him from getting inside for rebounds. When the offense is moving the ball well, Jamison is much more successful, and when Jamison is successful offensively, he’ll get in there and grab key rebounds. The play he made to seal the game at the end was a prime example of this.

However, I hate to say it again, but this game didn’t really prove all that much. The Wizards are 7-2 at home and could very easily be 9-0. We know they can play up to their potential against anyone in the Verizon Center. Now, they have to prove it and play well on the road. The offense needs to keep moving the ball well instead of stagnating and watching Arenas or Butler go 1 on 5. With road games against the Knicks and the Sixers on the docket this week, the Wizards have a great chance to finally get a road win.

In other news, Gilbert Arenas is going to be signing autographs/discussing his new shoe over at the NBA store in New York City. This wouldn’t ordinarily be newsworthy, but, apparently, Dan Steinberg, Unsilent Majority, Will Leitch, SLAM, and With Leather are all going to be there. Steinberg is calling this event a “Blogocalypse.” If anyone else is planning on being there, I’d really like to hear about it.

Also, Steinberg pops the “what if you could pretend you guys are at home when you’re on the road” question, and gets a ton of player responses. In an earlier Bog entry, Post Wizards beat writer Ivan Carter wondered aloud, "Is there a Shakespeare tragedy about an army that was great on its own soil but couldn't win on the road?" Clearly, this road thing is getting old and the players really have to find a way to break through. It better come this week with the Knicks and Sixers on the docket.

Finally, if you were at the game yesterday, let me know and send me your postgame thoughts. I’ll put them up here on the blog when I get them. E-mail me at pradam@brandeis.edu.

Postgame thoughts? Please someone be positive for now!

WIZARDS WIN!!!!!

2006-12-04T20:41:00.000-08:00

More to come tomorrow after my final is over, but what a huge win!!!!

I got concerned at the end, for sure, but what's with the negativity right now? The Wizards just kicked the hottest team in the NBA's ass! They were up by 30 points and they held Dallas to 34 percent in the first half!! They still haven't won on the road, and it still sucked that they allowed Dallas to come back like they did, but let's be happy for once. They needed a big win tonight and they got it!

If you were at the game, it must have been sick! I really want to hear about it, so send me your recap of the game so everyone can see it. E-mail me at pradam@brandeis.edu.

More tomorrow, but for now, I can be happy studying for my final!

Open Thread: Game 17

2006-12-04T15:20:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 17
Mavericks (12-4) vs. Wizards (6-10)
Verizon Center
7 PM
NBA TV and CSN

This would be a great game to have.

The Mavericks, winners of 12 in a row, come into Verizon Center tonight. I’d say a little more about this game, but I think it’s obvious how big a win would be for the Wizards. It also doesn’t help that I’m in the middle of finals week.

On another note, thanks to the commenters that pointed out that Eddie Jordan signed an extension this summer. Total oversight on my part and I can’t believe I forgot about that. It doesn’t mean he can’t get fired, but it makes it unlikely in the first year.

As a clarification, I’m not necessarily saying the Wizards need to fire Eddie Jordan RIGHT NOW. It’s still really early in the season, and the Wizards got off to a similarly bad (12-18) start last year. There’s still a lot of time to turn things around. Instead, my main point was that I’m not sure Eddie is the best guy to get the Wizards to the next level. Eddie’s a fantastic offensive mind, and it’s no coincidence that the Wizards had the top scoring trio in the past two years with different personnel (Butler replacing Hughes last year). His in-game tactics, especially his substitution patterns, can be baffling at times, but I don’t think they’ve played a major role in costing the Wizards more than one game (the Cleveland one) this year. At the end of the day, the players have really struggled with late-game execution. There’s nothing Eddie could do about the team’s inability to score against Houston late in the game, for example. However, it’s clear so far that the defense is no better than last year, and it doesn’t even seem like its getting better. I wrote in my preview that the Wizards needed to get that ranking to 15^thto have a chance at 50 wins. It hasn’t happened so far, and for that reason, the Wizards may need to get someone on the bench (assistant or head coach notwithstanding) that can teach the team the discipline needed to play good defense.

Mavericks Blogs: Mavs Moneyball, Rebel Ballin

As a reminder, if you’re going to the game tonight (especially if you're the one I had a subtle dig at in the post yesterday) send me an e-mail at pradam@brandeis.edu with an eyewitness report. I’ll post it up tomorrow in a separate entry.

Prediction: Wizards 107, Mavericks 105 (I know, but it’s been a long week and I need to have some optimism here)

If you’re online during the game, give a shout!

Bulls 112, Wizards 94: At the risk of sounding like a broken record...

2006-12-03T11:10:00.000-08:00

Admittedly, I didn’t follow one second of this game in any way. I guess it’s a good thing that happened.

112 points to the Bulls? Are you serious? The same Bulls that scored 72 points against a mediocre Lakers defense earlier this year? Quite simply, that’s about as bad as it gets.

I actually felt there have been times this season where the Wizards were on the verge of turning a corner defensively. Even on their horrendous recent road trip, they had a couple games where they held teams to around 40 percent from the field. These games coincided with horrendous offensive performances, but you had to think the offense would come around.

Now, the Wizards come back and throw up two defensive performances like this? I really don’t get it. Chicago doesn’t have much offensive talent at all. They rely simply on looking for holes to drive and kick outside for open jumpers. They have nobody who can score consistently in the post, and they have nobody (save for Ben Gordon at times) that can consistently break down a defense off the dribble. As a defense, all you really need to do against the Bulls is adhere to the basic defensive fundamentals of contesting shots, moving your feet, and rotating quickly as a unit.

If the Bulls are shooting 60 percent for the first half and 50 percent for the game, then the Wizards screwed up the most basic defensive elements. It seems like any team can get an open shot on this defense if they just make 3 or 4 passes. This would make sense if the Wizards had a ton of slow plodders on their team, but the only person that really fits this description is Antawn Jamison.

The problem then has to be coaching. I’ve usually been an Eddie Jordan supporter because he’s been the guy to take the Wizards to the playoffs the past two years. But this whole situation feels like the Don Nelson situation in Dallas. Nelson was a fantastic coach and did great things to pull Dallas up from the bottom of the Western Conference, but his teams never played defense and only significantly improved once Avery Johnson took his place. Jordan is a great offensive mind, but I'm not sure he’s the type of guy that can get the Wizards better defensively. Just like Don Nelson ultimately wasn’t the guy to take Dallas to the next level, so to is Jordan not the guy for the Wizards.

What this team really needs is a fiery young hotshot who isn’t afraid to get up in the players’ grill. It’s no secret that the two offensive-minded teams that made great strides in the past two years—Seattle in 05 and Dallas last year—had young fiery coaches in Nate McMillan and Avery Johnson. The Wizards could really use a guy like that who can get in the players' faces and let them know that the team isn't playing to their full potential. Many have said the Wizards could use some toughness in their personnel, but it's much more important to get a tough coach than one tough player. This is what the Wizards really need.

Unfortunately, the coaching market isn’t exactly brimming with these types of guys, so we may just have to hope that the Wizards can get back to where they were at last season. Maybe, when this guy retires, he can then take Jordan’s place.

But coaching change or not, the Wizards clearly need a spark from somewhere. Last year, it was giving Caron Butler more playing time. This year, it might have to be firing Eddie Jordan.

By the way, big stuff is happening with the site soon, so I’m looking to incorporate some eyewitness accounts into the recaps. If you are attending any of the Wizards upcoming home or away games, I’d love it for you to send me an account of your experience at the game to put up on the blog. Even if you're writing in a million different places already, it would be really cool to get an actual eyewitness account on this blog somewhere. E-mail me at pradam@brandeis.edu if you’re planning on attending any future games so we can set this up.

(And yes, I realize this is the same thing the guys over at Blazers Edge do, but I think it's really cool thing.)

Do you think a coaching change is the right move here?

Recap and Open Thread for Game 16

2006-12-02T11:28:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 16
Wizards (6-9) vs. Bulls (6-9)
United Center
8:30 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

I'm going to be gone all day, so we're going to combine the recap and preview this time.

I have to say, I was more impressed by the win over Atlanta on Tuesday than the win last night. Obviously, the Wizards played a better game yesterday, but we knew the Wizards could win games like these. It's the games where they aren't scoring a ton of points and they need to rely on defensive stops that we weren't so sure about.

I expected Charlotte to try to grind it out and force the Wizards to win a low-scoring game, but their perimeter defense stunk, allowing way too many open shots. It also helped that the Big 3 were shooting the lights out, and Gilbert Arenas had arguably his most impressive all around game with 33 points and 11 assists. Still, the Wizards defense absolutely stunk last night. There's no other way around it. You can't let Charlotte shoot 59 percent in the first half and 54 for the game. It's not like Charlotte is an offensive powerhouse either: they rank in the bottom 5 in the league in points per game. In the end, the Wizards forced enough turnovers to win, but against a better team, that would have been a loss.

Moving ahead to tonight, the Wizards look to finally get a win on the road against the Bulls tonight. You'll probably remember my proposed wager with Matt at Blogabull about which team will win more games. So far, both teams are struggling, and I don't think either of us wishes we made the wager.

I love when these two teams play because they are complete opposites of each other. Scott Skiles preaches attention to detail, whether it be on or off the court. They run disciplined sets offensively and beat you with solid perimeter defense on the other end. The problem with the Bulls is that they're wound too tightly. Nobody on that team is a consistent difference maker on either end of the court. Ben Wallace was supposed to be that guy, but it simply hasn't happened. Chicago has nobody who can score consistently when their offensive sets break down, meaning that you see a lot of low-percentage contested long jump shots.

The Wizards, on the other hand, have a ton of offensive talent. They have guys who can score in any given situation, and they only struggle offensively when they get lazy. When the shot clock winds down, the Wizards have a pletora of players that can create their own shot. However, they don't pay much attention to detail, whether it be perimeter defense or offensive scheming. If you put the two teams together, you'd have the perfect team.

Bulls blogs: Blogabull

Whenever these two teams play, it's close. There was that epic matchup at the end of the year in the United Center that featured a red-hot Ben Gordon and the charging call on Jared Jeffries when the Wizards tried to tie it. I think this one will be close as well, but I'm not encouraged by the Wizards inability to defend the perimeter against Charlotte. The Bulls should get plenty of open looks and score enough to win this one at home.

Prediction: Bulls 96, Wizards 89

If you're online during the game, give a shout!

Open Thread: Game 15

2006-12-01T16:21:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 15
Bobcats (4-11) vs. Wizards (5-9)
Verizon Center
7 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

Here's to falling asleep in the middle of the afternoon and waking up after the game starts! Post your game thoughts here. A win is essential.

Bobcats Blogs: Bobcat Bonfire

Prediction: Wizards 92, Bobcats 88

A follow up to yesterday

2006-11-30T18:29:00.000-08:00

A day has passed since yesterday's entry, and Gilbert Arenas has somewhat addressed the issue of his inconsistent start in his blog. The entry still gave me the feeling that he's overthinking a little too much, but he does bring up a couple interesting moments that lead me to think that he's going to be okay.

The first was his meeting with Ernie Grunfeld. Grunfeld correctly mentioned to Arenas that he's improved in many other facets of his game.

He felt I was down because he asked me, “How do you think you’re playing this year?” And I told him, “Oh, I’m not playing very well.” And he was like, “Numbers don’t lie.” So he showed me the numbers, he said besides the shooting percentage, everything is up. Steals is up, rebounds up, assists up…

The other was this seemingly offhand statement.

You know what’s funny? As much as I’m complaining about not getting to the free throw line, I’m having more free throws than I did last year.

I sometimes wonder whether Arenas is self-aware, but I've started to realize that he is more aware of his actions than it seems. His brain seems to function in a way where he understands that his complaints are sometimes unnecessary, but also truely believes that he's right. It's a subconscious inner conflict that can cloud his mind at times when it should be more open.

Again, this is mostly my personal theory. I'm no psychologist, but as a college student trying to involve himself in many causes, I get the same struggles to concentrate as Arenas seems to get.

A few bloggers have also responded to the situation. True Hoop had this to say.

This season everyone, especially Gilbert Arenas, had the idea that Arenas was going to be an MVP candidate. In years past he was seen as a good player, even a great player (especially for a second-round pick). Now he's supposed to be outdueling the likes of Dwyane, LeBron, and Kobe every night.
And that changes everything. Because it used to be that if he had an OK game, that was OK. Now if he has an OK game, everyone--especially Gilbert Arenas--needs someone to blame.

It also means that on nights when he's just not scoring effectively--which hasn't been all that rare--well, the system, driven by the expectation that he's this team's savior, still seems to be in place for him to keep firing away. Just in the month of November he has had games of 2-12, 6-20, 6-23, 5-19, 7-20, 9-25, 8-26, and 1-12. Ouch.

Brett Edwards of The Association and NBA Fanhouse takes Arenas' side and agrees that the officials, particularly Steve Javie, are giving Arenas a raw deal.

The real problem here isn't Arenas, or his alleged need to adjust to the officiating. It's the refereeing of one Steve Javie. Now unless you've been a close follower of the top teams in the league, you may not recognize this official as being any better or worse than the rest. But after sitting in person at several playoffs and Finals games where Javie was involved, I can assure you that this guy has it in for star players, especially in their home building.

DC Sports Bogger Dan Steinberg feels like this will all boil over and Arenas will be back to his sniping ways.

Seriously, you usually think of guys popping off about the officiating when they're still in the heat of the moment, but I see this more as Gil's very straight-faced ruminations on the changing whims of referees, which is why he's saying the same thing in the same words on his blog. I wouldn't worry, all you people worrying about his well-being and focus and distractions and all that. He'll go for 40 or 45 within the next week.

I realize that people probably got the wrong idea from the last line of yesterday's post. Looking back on it, I realize I came off a little too strongly against Arenas at the end. I don't necessarily believe he should explicitly stop blogging or stop sponsering his HALO as I seemed to suggest. I'm really just saying that I think Arenas has to prioritize more effectively. This is not to say that he believes outside endeavors are almost as important as basketball, but it does mean that he needs to realize the limits of his own mind and try to scale down to casues he truely believes are important.

As much as I love Gilbert Arenas the person, at the end of the day, he's paid to play basketball first. If he's playing below his potential, it's a problem. I believe he'll turn it around, but if Arenas continues this inconsistent act, the Wizards are going to continue to struggle.

How much of an issue is this latest controversy? Is it even an issue at all?

Ivan Carter on Gilbert Arenas: "I have no idea what he's talking about half the time."

2006-11-29T16:41:00.000-08:00

In terms of pure numbers, the Wizards rank right around where they did last year. They're shooting a lot of free throws, taking good care of the ball, giving up too many open shots, and allowing too many points. Yet they still sit at 5-9 on the season only a year after finishing 42-40 with an pythagorean won-loss record of 46-36.

What's the difference so far? Ivan Carter says there's something very wrong with Gilbert Arenas.

Gilbert's problems remain a mystery to me. With each passing game it seems that he's getting more and more caught up in the referees than actually playing. After the game, he talked at length about how the refs are calling the game different from last season, about how he can't "figure out" how a particular game is being called and how he can't wait until January when the refs find some consistency. This is disturbing on many levels but especially so because he's the franchise player and controls the ball most of the time. Basically, I have no idea what he's talking about half the time.

Gil's in his sixth season, he's a two-time all star and this franchise has deeply invested in him so perhaps it's time for him to focus on what's important and forget about the zebras. It's affecting his play and that in turn, is affecting this team.

Of all members of mainstream and independent media, Carter is probably the closest to the Wizards. If he has no idea what's going on with Gilbert Arenas, then I don't know who does.

There are a couple interesting theories in the comments section of Carter's blog entry. One commenter speculates that Arenas' scouting of officials' tendencies in the offseason has caused a phenomenon where "every time he drives to the basket he appears to be trying to get a 3 point play." Another speculates that "Gil usually uses the 'everyone is against me' thing as motivation, but lately, I think he's just getting too wrapped up in it. He's so focused on trying to be a super-star, and getting noticed for this and that."

I personally think that the major problem with Arenas right now is that he's stretched himself too far into other causes. There's no doubt that his antics (including promoting his Halo team and his blog, among others) allows Arenas to feel loved by a city who's been betrayed far too often, but Arenas is starting to get to the point where he can't concentrate mentally.

It seems wierd to say this, but Gilbert Arenas' plight reminds me of college students who succeed in high school, but struggle with grades in college. One would think that the students struggle due to increased academic difficulty, but the element that kills many college students (including me, to some degree) is the tendency to thrust yourself into so many clubs and extracurricular responsibility that you simply don't have time or mental capacity to work dilligently on anything. Eventually, the pressures of so many different activities crash together in one's head, making it difficult to completely focus on each individual one. Eventually, simple prioritizing is not enough to prevent your brain from overloading, and the only way out is to drop one of the activities.

Considering some of Arenas' past actions, he doesn't seem to have a brain that prioritizes well. Arenas tends to do what he feels without thinking the action through. You can only go back and look at his denial of the claim "quirky" to understand his self-awareness. This is not a knock on Arenas at all: in many ways, it is a blessing. He's an extremely kind soul who wants to pour himself into many causes, and he gives off a sense of genuiness that is so rare among professional athletes.

However, Arenas is facing the classic college student dilema. He knows he wants to be involved with many things, and he knows he wants to show genuine devotion to all of his causes. But just like the college student's sagging academic performance, Arenas is struggling to perform his best consistently in what matters most: on the court. His facade with the referees is an expression of personal confusion—he's stronger and faster than ever, so he believes it can't be his fault that he's been so inconsistent. The reality is that Arenas is often too subconsciously preoccupied in his head to perform as consistently as before.

So, even though we've seen Arenas antics produce some incredible material for the blogosphere, as a Wizards fan, I sincerely hope he takes down his blog, stops sponsering the Halo team, and try to focus on what's important.

Agree? Disagree? What's Agent Zero's problem this year?

Wizards 97, Hawks 96: Offensive aggression allows Wizards to win an ugly one

2006-11-28T23:48:00.000-08:00

It's one of the strangest lines you'll ever see, but in a game where both teams struggled to hold onto the basketball, Caron Butler's 21 point, 15 free throw performance in the win tonight is something that needs to be explored more extensively.

In their last two losses, the Wizards have suffered from a lack of aggressivness in taking the ball to the basket. The Wizards shot significantly more free throws than their opponents last season, but in losses to Memphis and Detroit, the Wizards did very little to debunk the popular idea that they are a soft jump-shooting team. As soon as shots stopped going in, the Wizards offense stopped working. Even the best teams can't win too many games scoring 80 points every game.

This backdrop is why Butler's performance tonight is particularly important to understand. He made more free throws tonight (15) than field goals (10). Instead of hoisting jumper after jumper in hopes of heating up, Butler made sure to attack the rim and get easy points at the free throw line. This in turn allowed the Wizards to win the game despite turning the ball over 21 times (this will be a subject of a future post) and getting outrebounded 44-38.

In terms of quantitative analysis, the Wizards +11 in points at the free throw line won them this game. The Hawks shot only 42 percent, but they still were +10 in points on field goals because they attempted 20 more shots. Combine that with a 15-6 advantage on the offensive glass, and it's safe to say that Atlanta's offense was working better than Washington's. Still, the Wizards were able to win this game because of their renewed offensive aggression. The Wizards' offense struggled with turnovers and a lack of flow, but because they attacked the basket with a renewed vigor, they were able to get enough to win.

Also, I can't recap this game without giving props to Jarvis Hayes. I've been hard on the guy, but he had a superb game tonight, pnroviding 9 points on 3-3 from three point range as well as superb defense on Joe Johnson when it mattered most. If Hayes could simply focus on playing his role and improving his shot selection, he could provide the type of bench spark this team desperately needs. When he's shooting 10 times in only 18-2o minutes, it's a problem. Tonight, he picked his spots well and made three huge treys.

Overall, there were lots of encouraging signs. The turnovers are a huge problem--one big enough to tackle in a future post--and the inability to score in the halfcourt at the end of the game is troubling, but the Hawks are a tricky team to play because they have a real star and a number of athletic surrounding pieces. The Wizards did not play their best game at all tonight, but because of a renewed focus on aggression (led by Butler), the Wizards found a way to win an ugly one.

Postgame thoughts? What do you guys think went well and what do you think still needs work?

Open Thread: Game 14

2006-11-28T14:37:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 14
Hawks (5-6) vs. Wizards (4-9)
Verizon Center
7 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

The Hawks haven't won at MCI/Verizon Center since 2003, and if that changes tonight, there will be serious problems. The Wizards desperately need wins this week against Atlanta and Charlotte at home to stop the bleeding. The Hawks started off 4-1, but have since lost 5 of 6, including a dreadful 98-79 loss to the Magic last Saturday that included an 11 point second quarter. Both teams are struggling right now and both could use wins tonight.

Hawks blogs: Impending Firestorm

The Hawks pose a lot of interesting problems on the defensive end of the court for the Wizards with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith. Johnson's the type of guard that is difficult for any team to stop, and the Wizards are going to have to stick DeShawn Stevenson on him and take their chances. Smith is a demon on the offensive glass, meaning the big guys really need to make an effort to clean up the glass.

In a lot of ways, the Hawks are Wizards-lite. The difference is that the Wizards have more reliable second and third options alongside their alpha dogs. Other than Joe Johnson, the Hawks are full of inconsistent performers. Guys like Smith, Lue, Josh Childress, and Zaza Pachulia are even more inconsistent than Wizards guys, if that's even possible.

On the other end, keep an eye on Jamison tonight. Without Marvin Williams, the Hawks have been going small with Smith at power forward. Smith is a great shot blocker, but I'm not sure he's such a great man defender. Jamison should have a ton of open shots tonight, so we'll see whether he can knock them down.

In the end, it should be a Wiz win, but it'll be pretty close.

Prediction: Wizards 107, Hawks 100

If you're online during the game, give a shout!

Quick Hits

2006-11-28T12:06:00.000-08:00

SLAM is giving Wizards center Etan Thomas an opportunity to write a regular column for the online section of their website. In his first article, Thomas discusses an interaction he had with a referee and his reactions to the referee's surprise that Thomas writes poetry.

We were playing a home game against Cleveland, and after a timeout a referee with dark, slicked-back hair (who shall remain nameless) approached me. He said that he had heard that I write poetry, have a book, speak at universities, am into politics, etcetera, and he asked me if this was true.

I replied, Yes.

To my surprise, he responded: “You’re not as dumb as you look.”

I turned toward my teammate Antawn Jamison, who also heard the exchange, and we both looked back at this ref with eyes of bewilderment, as if to say that we couldn’t have possibly heard him right.

He saw that I was in no way amused, without even the slightest hint of a smile, and attempted to clean up his statement, saying, “Well I think it’s great, I could never do anything like that…” I simply nodded my head and returned to the game.

Sometimes someone can make a statement that is so unbelievably blatant that it renders you speechless, left without a response or reaction, until you think about it at a later date. This was one of those times for me.

The rest of the article is very interesting and it ends with one of Thomas' trademark poems. Thomas is incredibly articulate and I recommend this column to any NBA fan.

Also, on the latest "Daily Fix" podcast from The Basketball Jones, they address the Wizards' disappointing 4-9 start. Skeets and Tas mostly attribute the struggles of the team to defense. Tas brings up the loss of Jared Jeffries, while Skeets discussed the overall team mindset and the lack of rebounding. They also touch on the loss of Darius Songaila and wonder whether Gilbert Arenas and his antics are a distraction.

Speaking of TBJ, Lowpost's Jason Gurney interviewed Skeets in the latest of his "Meet the Blogger" series.

Personally, I don't think a lack of defense can explain why the Wizards seem worse than last year. It can explain why they aren't any better, but defense was a problem last year and the Wizards still were a 42 win team with a point differential of a 47 win one. The problem to me really seems to be the complete inability to put together a complete game. The defense has played well in some games, the offense has played well in some games, but neither have come at the same time much this year. This is a team that could really use a shot in the arm off the bench to put the pressure off their starters.

Also, let's wait to see how the Wizards perform with this easier stretch coming up. If they can't get back close to .500 by the turn of the calendar year, then we can honestly say that the problems are substantial. Right now, it's much more difficult to tell.

Forget Offense and Defense: The Bench is the Problem!

2006-11-27T14:54:00.000-08:00

It seems wierd to say this, but let me be the first to do it.

Darius Songaila's injury and the effect it has had on the Wizards bench is the primary reason why the Wizards are 4-9.

Okay, maybe Songaila himself isn't the only culprit. Gilbert Arenas has been hot and cold all year. Antawn Jamison's shot has deserted him. The two have been inconsistent all year, and the overall defensive effort still needs some work.

Still, the injury to Songaila, while not playing a major role on its own, has exposed the Wizards absolute lack of a bench. It is my firm belief that this problem has caused all the other problems and needs to be fixed.

Commenter Mel Turpin had this to say.

One of the biggest problems with this team is a total lack of any fire power off the bench. Good teams in the NBA get thirty or forty points per game from their bench. The Wizards are lucky to get ten points.

I'd agree with the sentiment of the statement, but I'd slightly amend the meat of it. A bench doesn't necessarily need to provide scoring, and between Antonio Daniels and Jarvis Hayes, they usually get 10 points most games. What is necessary from a bench is a spark; a player who can play 20-25 minutes and potentially provide the necessary offense, defense, rebounding, or playmaking necessary to win a game. In lieu of one player, many teams like Dallas and San Antonio rely on a lot of bench guys to be successful.

Either way, you have to have one or the other to be a successful team. San Antonio makes up for the lack of star power with a ton of options, including Brent Barry, Michael Finley, Fabricio Oberto, Francisco Elson, and Beno Udrih. Dallas is very much the same way, but they also have a potential impact player in Jerry Stackhouse. Phoenix relies on the offensive spark of Leandro Barbosa off the bench to win games for them. The Lakers are at least two deep at every position, and Orlando often gets more production out of bench players like Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling than their starters. Even Utah gets a lot of intangible qualities out of guys like Matt Harpring, Ronnie Brewer, and Paul Millsap, and this change has arguably been one of the catalysts to their sudden improvement. Good teams therefore either need to have one of their best players come off the bench (like Barbosa, Harpring, and Mike Miller on Memphis last year ) or have a multitute of options so that someone invariably emerges every night (the Dallas-San Antonio-LA Lakers strategy).

This is ultimately where the Wizards have failed this year. The offense and defense have struggled, but I think it's all tied back to the bench. Only 7 players on the Wizards have a PER (player efficiency rating) over 10. The Hawks, Nets, Heat, Bobcats, and Sonics are the only teams that have a similar lack of efficiency from their bench.

The Wizards bench can basically be summed up as follows.

Antonio Daniels: Nice player, a personal favorite, but best suited to being a 7th man. Probably isn't good enough to start on a playoff team. If there were 3 players as good as Daniels on this bench, it would be a solid unit, but there isn't.
Brendan Haywood: Pretty solid backup center, but way too inconsistent to provide a spark every night.
Jarvis Hayes: Has been really bad this year, with a PER under 9. He takes too many shots and doesn't make enough of them.
Michael Ruffin: No offensive ability, pretty poor defensive ability, average rebounder, commits tons of fouls, and the team's +/- with him on the floor stinks.
Calvin Booth: Michael Ruffin, but with slightly more defensive skills and worse rebounding skills.
Roger Mason, Donnell Taylor, Andray Blatche: Unproven.

With this cast of characters, the Wizards' bench fulfills neither requirement presented above. There are no consistent impact players on the bench, and there isn't enough depth to ensure that the team will get something out of this unit no matter what. Daniels comes closest to being an impact player, but he doesn't really add a new dimension to the team game like Barbosa, Millsap, Ben Gordon, or Jerry Stackhouse do. Haywood is a decent backup center who would be a real asset if the bench was deeper. Hayes and Ruffin receive too many minutes, and nobody else really plays much.

Coming into the season, this wasn't expected to be a problem. At the end of last year, a lack of a bench really killed the Wizards, and Ernie Grunfeld went seeing a remedy to the problem. Songaila and Stevenson were brought in, and combined with the continued maturation of Blatche and the healthy return of Hayes and Etan Thomas, the Wizards were all set to be two-deep at every position. Songaila in particular was a particularly good pickup; he probably would have averaged a solid 10 points and 7 rebounds a game in this system. He would have been a versatile impact player off the bench for the Wizards all year and would have singlehandily significantly upgraded a sore weakness for the Wizards.

Then, Songaila got hurt and threw everything off. Injuries happen, and I'm not blaming the Wizards season on an unfortunate event. But the Wizards have dealt with this setback horribly thus far this season, as Eddie Jordan's shortening of the rotation have put too much strain on the starters all season, which has caused them to press and be prone to spells of inconsistency.

Entering the season, a great point of comparison for the Wizards in terms of their benches were the Sacramento Kings. The biggest knock on Sacramento entering the season was their lack of depth, made possible by a bench that seemed to only include Kenny Thomas and John Salmons. Any injury to their top seven would have potentially killed them. As John Hollinger said:

The Kings are so lacking off the bench, with their best reserve a year ago ([Kevin] Martin) now forced to start. The frontcourt has obvious weaknesses, but the backcourt is no picnic either -- just to have a decent seven-man rotation would require either [John] Salmons or [Francisco] Garcia to play much better than a year ago, or [Quincy] Douby to hit the ground running.

So far this season, the Kings have suffered a loss from one of their top 7 (Brad Miller) and survived okay. Instead of shortening his rotation, coach Eric Musselman lengthened it, giving extended looks to youngsters such as Salmons, Garcia, and Ronnie Price and old relics like Corloss Williamson. The end result is that Williamson has experienced a revival and Price has emerged as a solid backup guard, thereby giving Sacramento more sources for the spark they desperately need. What was once a putrid bench is now a solid one now that Miller has returned to the lineup.

For the Wizards to improve and snap out of their slump, they need to develop the same type of bench Sacramento did when they lost Miller. Eddie Jordan needs to play the young guys more so they can gain experience where they can be potential sparks off the bench for the rest of the season. Instead of playing Michael Ruffin 8 minutes, why not play Andray Blatche? The kid is still raw, but the only way he will significantly improve is if he gets more playing time. Instead of playing the Big 3 over 37 minutes a game each, why not cut their time down to the 35 minute range and give the remaining minutes to Roger Mason and Donnell Taylor? Mason impressed Jordan in camp, but he barely even gets a look now. If he's not going to play, I don't see any reason to have him on the team.

Here's the current average minutes breakdown of the team, rounding up the decimals.

Jamison: 39
Arenas: 38
Butler: 37
Stevenson: 27
Daniels: 27
Thomas: 22
Haywood: 18
Hayes: 16
Ruffin: 8
Blatche: 7
Booth: 6
Taylor: 5
Mason: 5

Here's what I would propose until Songaila comes back.

Arenas: 38
Butler: 36
Jamison: 33
Stevenson: 27
Daniels: 25
Thomas: 22
Haywood: 20
Hayes: 12
Blatche: 12
Mason: 10
Booth: 8
Taylor: 7
Ruffin: 5

In each situation, the total minutes are the same, but the three youngsters, along with Haywood and Booth, see a hike in their minutes. To compensate, Jamison sees his MPG drop by 6 and Ruffin and Hayes see much less of the court than before.

More minutes for the youngsters is the key to improving this team. The Big 3 are currently forced to do too much, and when they're having a bad game, the team suffers significantly. The Wizards need to develop a decent bench, or else their fortunes will continued to be tied to Gilbert Arenas' shooting. The only way to do this is to give Blatche, Mason, and Taylor more playing time in the hope that someone can emerge as a decent threat, a la Ronnie Price. Only then will the Wizards make that jump into the East's upper eschelon.

More Julian Wright Love and a Preview of Tomorrow

2006-11-27T00:00:00.000-08:00

I was planning on writing a long post today about the consequences of losing Darius Songaila early in the season and it's effects on the Wizards bench even before commenter "Mel Turpin" brought it up. That comment only makes the point even stronger, and as such, it will certainly be discussed.

Still, today was a really bad travel day for me, so I'm holding that off for tomorrow. Apologies to all, but be sure to stay tuned.

In the meantime, I need to give more love to Kansas' Julian Wright. That was an insane game last night between Florida and Kansas, and I'm convinced this Wright kid (along with Taurean Green...he really impresses me) will have long futures in the NBA. I follow a ton of college ball, and those two were the ones I came away most impressed with last night. Anyway, here's a clip of Wright's two huge dunks in the Big 12 title game last year. Enjoy!

Be back tomorrow with a real post.

Who watched the Florida-Kansas game on Saturday night? How good can Julian Wright be? How much better would the Wizards be if they had Wright (IMO, not that much better, but still)?

Pistons 115, Wizards 111: I'm Getting Nightmares of 2000

2006-11-25T20:09:00.001-08:00

No doubt about it, this was a game they needed to have.

The Big 3 all had big games at the same time. Scoring, as a whole, wasn't really a problem. Gilbert Arenas had arguably his most complete game with 28 and 10 assists. Antawn Jamison had 22 and Caron Butler had exactly the type of game I know he can have with 25 points on 12 of 16 shooting. DeShawn Stevenson even chipped in with 15. Offense is solved, right? How could the Wizards lose?

Two uncharacteristic things killed the Wizards. The first was the huge free throw difference. Detroit is really more of a jump shooting team, yet they were able to get to the line 40 times! On the road! They were +18 at the free throw line, which is an insane difference. At some point, the Wizards need to be able to defend without committing too many fouls. Offensively, the Wizards only got to the line 23 times, which is a lot less than usual. Considering this also happened against Memphis, it may be the beginning of the trend.

The second uncharacteristic thing that killed the Wizards were the turnovers. The Wizards forced only 9 turnovers and had 17 of their own. This probably was the main reason why the Pistons were able to score at will on Washington last night. The Wizards were not able to get easy buckets in transition, which is something that has become a trend recently. However, the Wizards still usually take decent care of the ball, which makes the 17 turnovers tonight troubling.

This team is starting to remind me of the 29-53 team of 2000. I went to many home games that year, and after a while, each one started to mold together. The Wizards would fall behind early, be down like 8-10 at the half, and would see the lead baloon to 15 or so in the third quarter. Then, by the end of the quarter, the Wizards reserves would make a run and it would carry over to the fourth quarter. By the middle of the fourth, the lead would be down to 6 or so, and we'd honestly believe the comeback would continue. After a timeout by the opposition (this always happened after a Tracy Murray three...this was simply uncanny), the Wizards would miss a shot to cut it down further and the opponent would close them out eventually. I can't tell you how many games have followed that same pattern this year. It's just unbelievable.

I still think this ship can be rightened. The Wizards played pretty well tonight, to be honest. Detroit is just a super team playing really well right now. They could have beaten nearly any team tonight. There still is more that needs to be done, but the schedule calms down and the Wizards have a lot of home games coming up. A nice run is going to come sooner or later, just like it did last year.

I'd have more to say, but I need to keep watching this Kansas-Florida game. If only the Wizards had an athlete like Julian Wright on their team...

Postgame thoughts? What's your take on tonight?

Open Thread: Game 13

2006-11-25T13:54:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 13
Pistons (8-5) vs. Wizards (4-8)
Verizon Center
7 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

Previous Matchup: Pistons 100, Wizards 91

Not much to say here...suffice to say this game is a must for the Wizards.

Pistons Blogs: Detroit Bad Boys, Need4Sheed, Motoring

I have honestly no idea what will happen with this team tonight. Part of me says they'll come out with a renewed passion at home and blow out Detroit like they blew out Cleveland last weekend. Another part of me says that they'll show up flat again and allow Detroit to grind away at them like last matchup. Being in a relatively optimistic mood, I'll take the former. I can't really explain why, but then again, very little is explainable right now with this team.

Prediction: Wizards 100, Pistons 95

GO WIZ!!!

If you're here during the game, give a shout!

Grizzlies 95, Wizards 80: Shoot Me Now

2006-11-24T21:47:00.000-08:00

By running this blog, I realize that I'm supposed to be some sort of quasi-expert on the Washington Wizards team. Granted, I'm not down there with the team, but I do what I can to stay on the beat from afar.

With that being said, I really don't have too many answers for tonight. It was like the anti-Wizards were out there. Instead of Washington driving and getting buckets at the free throw line to compensate for so-so shooting, it was Memphis sloppily driving to the rim and getting a majority of their points from the charity stripe. Looking at the game stats, the only one where Memphis had a clear advantage was in free throws (36 to 15), which is completely uncharacteristic of the Wizards. They were settling for too many midrange jumpers, and while it often seems like this happens every game, the reality is that the Wizards usually have a free throw advantage against their opponents.

Tonight, it simply wasn't happening. The Wizards are your classic rhythm team. If their jumpers are falling, then they can kick their offense into high gear. Teams have to acknowledge the jumper, which opens up the lane for easy buckets. The problem is that if you aren't hitting your jumpers, that lane never opens up.

Speaking of uncharacteristic, I have absolutely no answer as to what was wrong with Gilbert Arenas. All I can say is that he's a rhythm shooter, meaning he is prone to streaks where he's on and where he's off. Usually, however, Arenas can shoot himself out of them, but I guess he never got the chance to do it when he was on the bench in the third and fourth quarters.
That was probably the worst game Arenas has ever played, and he's given no indication that there was anything wrong with him, making it even wierder. He didn't admit that he was restless after sleeping three hours and bouncing around a basketball all night, so I don't know. Perhaps he was spending too much time worrying about blogs.

Ultimately, as much as I tend to advocate Arenas not shooting as much, the reality is that the Wizards need him to consistently score 25+ to win. That doesn't mean the Wizards should be over-reliant on Arenas--after all, Dallas has won 8 in a row and they need Dirk to score 25+ to win--but it just means that Arenas has to bring it every night. Nobody can really win against anyone if their star scores 3 points, and if there is a positive to take away from this, it's that the Wizards did hang around without Arenas and Antawn Jamison playing well. At least Caron Butler finally showed that he can be a monster.

Obviously, it looks bad now, and the Wizards are in big trouble. Judging from some of my comments in the game thread, I'm feeling the pain. Still, there are two good pieces of news. First, the Eastern Conference has been horrendous, which opens the door for a nice Wizards run once they play some Eastern Conference foes. Second, as Gilbert Arenas said to Marc Stein here, this isn't so different than last year.

Q: The last time we spoke, you said you thought the Wiz were about a year and a half away from challenging for the East title. But you guys haven't won a road game yet. How concerned are you with this start?
A: With this team, I'm never worried. I've been with this group for three years now and we've been through worse times. Last year, what did we start, 7-14?
(Editor's note II: It was actually 9-14 and 12-18, but you get his point.)

Hopefully, some home-cooking tomorrow should help heal the wounds. As crazy as it sounds, the Wizards don't need to do anything big to get better. All the parts have been there, just at different times and in different games. If they can simply put it all together, things can get better. I'm not saying they will, but as crazy as it sounds, the Wizards picked the right year to start 4-8 and score in the 80s in four road games.

Still, "The Takeover" needs to start tomorrow. Detroit has to be defeated. There is simply no alternative at this point.

GO WIZ

Postgame thoughts? The floor is open to venting.

Open Thread: Game 12

2006-11-24T14:10:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 12
Wizards (4-7) at Grizzlies (2-9)
Fed-Ex Forum
8 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

It's a must-win game tonight, as the struggling Wizards take on the even-worse Grizzlies tonight on the road. The Wizards have come close at Cleveland, Orlando, and Houston, but are still searching for their first road win. Tonight should be the best chance, as the Grizzlies are struggling and are among the worst teams in the league.

Grizzlies blogs: The Beale Street Beat

Memphis has really struggled this season after star Pau Gasol went down in the World Championships. Gasol is out until January, forcing the Grizzlies to rely on a lot of unproven youngsters, one of which, Kyle Lowry, is out for tonight and probably much longer.

That's not to say Memphis has not been competitive. They haven't been blown out of any game, with the 13 point loss to Charlotte being their largest margin of defeat. They have close losses to Cleveland, Houston, Dallas, and Sacramento, all of which are pretty good teams. Without Gasol, they've been forced to rely on youngsters like Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick, and Lawrence Roberts and aging veterans like Eddie Jones and Chucky Atkins.

Essentially, the Wizards should win, but I don't think it will be easy. Memphis will hang around long enough to make this a game, and the Wizards can easily be defeated if they let Memphis hang around. The key, once again, will be getting everyone going. Arenas and Butler should be able to explode for a ton of points, but Arenas can't be coming down and jacking up threes every time. On the other side of the ball, the Grizzlies run a disciplined slow-down offense, relying on perimeter shots to succeed. This means the Wizards need to continue to do a good job of fighting through screens and contesting every shot.

Ultimately, I expect a Wizards victory, but it will be closer than you think.

Prediction: Wizards 97, Grizzlies 89

If you're watching or listening, drop a comment with your thoughts.

[editor's note: The Basketball Jones apparently agrees with my prediction, as they've made this game their "Book it!" of the night.]

Why I Love Antonio Daniels

2006-11-24T11:02:00.000-08:00

There's a great article in the Washington Post today about Antonio Daniels and his offer to pay for the funeral of former University of Miami star defensive lineman Bryan Pata, who was shot earlier this year. Upon learning that Pata's family was having trouble financially, Daniels, spurred on by the memory of his brother Chris' sudden death in 1996 while playing for the Dayton Flyers, offered to lend a helping hand to the family.

"I was sitting there and all I could think about was his mother," Daniels said. "They were talking about how Miami was going to go ahead and play that next week, and all I thought was, 'What about her?' I thought about my own mother and what my family went through when my brother died. What happens is, life goes on and people forget about the family and the fact that the family is still struggling and life just goes on.
"The next day I'm sitting there getting dressed to leave for a game and I told my wife: 'This is crazy. People are going on with their lives and imagine how his mother must feel.' "
Daniels, who honors his late brother with three tattoos, decided to do something. The next day, through Wizards public relations director Zack Bolno, Daniels reached out to the Pata family and asked what he could do. When Daniels learned that the family has struggled financially, he offered $10,000 to help cover funeral expenses.

If you go to Daniels' website, there is a special page dedicated to the memory of Chris Daniels. I'd recommend reading both pieces, as they shed an incredible light on the persona of Antonio Daniels.

I'm not going to really add much about Antonio Daniels as a person. The article does a great job of painting a picture of AD, and Hoops Addict has more to say about that as well. I will take this time, however, to say why I love Daniels as a basketball player.

In my opinion, Daniels is the third most important player on the Wizards, behind Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. In the last two months of last season and the first month of this season, Antonio Daniels has arguably been the best sixth man in basketball. His stats may not be as good as Mike Miller's last year, and he probably won't win it this year if either Ben Gordon or Leandro Barbosa don't start for over half the year. But to me, it's a crime that Daniels has never won the sixth man award.

When you think of the ideal sixth man, there are a lot of things that come to mind. The late Red Auerbach was the first person to place an importance on a sixth man. On his Boston Celtics teams, the sixth man came in to provide energy and quick scoring ability. Many times, sixth men like Frank Ramsey and John Havlichek led the team in scoring and changed the tide of games. It's hard to argue that Ramsey or Havlichek was the best player on the team, but they still played a huge role on the team.

Nowadays, a sixth man's role is not so easily defined. You have your pure scorers like Barbosa and Gordon, but there are other ways a sixth man can help the team. Detroit's Antonio McDyess is an ace sixth man because of his ability to help out on the glass as well as score inside. Donyell Marshall and Brent Barry come in and simply hit perimeter shots, while Jazz rookie Paul Millsap provides rebounding and toughness. However, one thing that does bind every sixth man together is that they come in to provide a spark of energy, whether it be through scoring, shooting, rebounding, or defense/hustle.

What makes Daniels unique, however, is that he is able to provide a spark in multiple departments. He's instant offense off the bench, but he doesn't need the ball as much as Gordon to be successful. His tough drives and three point plays also provide the type of hustle and grit that can get the Wizards going. When the Wizards are stuck in jump-shooting mode, it is usually Daniels that brings them back (reference the Cleveland and Houston games). He also provides underrated perimeter defense and the type of veteran leadership that a team with an alpha dog like Arenas so desperately needs.

So why doesn't AD get more love? He's simply not as flashy as Gordon or as dynamic as Barbosa or Paul Millsap. He comes in there and simply does his thing night in and night out. As such, you're rarely going to see him on Sportscenter doing anything crazy. At the same time, however, it is a breathtaking drive to the basket that often ignites the Wizards. I routinely wonder how Daniels is able to finish the way he does. He's not slamming anything down, but he has spectacular body control, which allows him to finish around the rim without being called for charging fouls.

It doesn't seem possible that someone can not be flashy while still being an ace sixth man, but Daniels proves that the task can be done. Combine that with his veteran leadership and his incredible generosity off the court, and I'm proud to say that Antonio Daniels plays for my team.

Obligatory Thanksgiving Post

2006-11-23T11:54:00.000-08:00

Seeing as it is Thursday November 23, I want to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving. I have so much to be thankful for, and I'm sure everyone else does too.

I'll be back with solutions to fix the Wizards tomorrow. Until then, I'm going to celebrate with the family and watch tons of football.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Wizards 87, Wizards 82: The Real Problem is Clear

2006-11-22T20:08:00.000-08:00

With 4:45 left in the third quarter, Tracy McGrady's three pointer gave Houston a 15 point lead. The Wizards then went on a 26-12 run to pull to within one point at 72-71 with 5:43 left in the fourth quarter. This was probably the best offensive stretch the Wizards have had on this road trip. But a second glance at the play-by-play of the stretch reveals the very problem the Wizards' offense has had.

During the stretch, here are the facts.

Number of Gilbert Arenas shots during the stretch: 3
Number of Gilbert Arenas points during the stretch: 4
Number of Gilbert Arenas shots the rest of the game: 23

In those 11 minutes, Arenas shot only 3 of the Wizards 15 field goals and scored only 4 of the team's 26 points. Yet during this two game road trip, Arenas has jacked up 51 of the team's 159 shots. Nearly one third of the Wizards shots on this road trip so far have come from the hands of Gilbert Arenas. This all despite the fact that the Wizards best offensive stretch on this road trip came when Arenas was shooting the least.

The problem, therefore, is clear. If the Wizards do much better when everyone is involved in the offense, why is Arenas shooting the ball so damn much? Where is that Princeton-style rhythm offense that was so good last season? How the hell are the Wizards supposed to win games scoring only 87 and 82 points?

When most basketball pundits analyzed the Wizards' potential problems this year, chief among them was the defense. Well guess what. The defense is doing quite well. The Wizards held Dallas to 40 percent shooting last night, and they held Houston to 41 percent shooting and only 86 points tonight. DeShawn Stevenson has been really solid on the wing, and Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood have given the Wizards some semblance of an inside presence. All should be good. But instead, all is bad.

The Wizards can't win on the road right now because Arenas is taking matters completely into his own hands. The Wizards are never going to win by going down the court and adopting the Arenas attitude, jacking up the first decent look they get. There are certainly times when Arenas' quick-scoring ability will be instrumental. Hell, he almost brought the Wizards back with that bank three in the final seconds. There is a reason why you can rarely count the Wizards out of any game.

But you can't do this for 48 minutes. If all you're doing is jacking up shots with 18 seconds left on the shot clock, no matter how good the shot is, you're incredibly easy to defend. Opponents have to expend very little energy on defense and can therefore focus on attacking a suspect Wizards offense. It's no wonder the Wizards have had three games in the 80s on the road this season.

Here's what needs to happen on offense. Antwan Jamison has his faults, for sure, but he is an extremely difficult matchup off the dribble and off the ball for any power forwards. Jamison is at his best hitting open threes or driving to the lane. Instead, Jamison is simply jacking up mid-range jumpers and missing them at an alarming rate. It's as if Arenas' disease is rubbing off on Jamison, who had previously been one of the league's most efficient scorers.

More importantly, the Wizards must get Caron Butler going. Butler is such a tough matchup off the dribble. He's strong enough to post up most threes, but has too good of a mid-range jumper to lay off him. If you get too close to him, he can take it to the hole and is among one of the best finishers in the game. Butler is also a monster on the offensive glass, and his rebounding has been awesome so far this year. There is no reason why he should not be getting 18 shots every game.

Finally, Antonio Daniels, when he's in the game, needs to be utalized offensively. He's among the best slashers and finishers out there and has become adept at the mid-range jumper. It seems like every time the Wizards make a comeback, it is a Daniels drive and three-point play that catalyzes it.

When Arenas shoots the ball 26 times a game, that means fewer shots for those 4 players. The Wizards offense functions best when Arenas is Option 1, Butler option 1A, and Jamison option 1B. When Daniels is in the game, he is usually option 3. The four of them played off each other
so well last year, so I really don't understand why suddenly it's become this bad. Arenas doesn't strike me as the kind of player who will suddenly become big-headed, making this all the more worse. Quite simply, this has baffled everyone, including me.

Oh, and one more thing. I don't think this is Eddie Jordan's fault. Sure, he's made a couple questionable substitution patterns, but it's not his fault if these guys have concentration lapses. Ivan Carter, in his latest Washington Post chat, said it best.

Didn't this guy just take this franchise, which hadn't pissed a drop in decades, to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons? Am I missing something here? Who do you want to hire? Sam Mitchell? Flip Saunders after he's fired in Detroit? Isiah Thomas? Larry Brown? Bill Fitch? Leonard Hamilton? Gene Shue? Kevin Loughery?

I agree 100 percent. There's nobody out there better at this point.

Anyway, I've aired my grievances, and I'm sure you have some, so I'll step aside for now and let you guys have the floor. Consider this an open forum for complaints thus far. I realize it's the time of year to be thankful, but I'm sure people have a lot to say.

[editor's note]: The title is actually the number of points the Wizards scored in the last two games, not the actual game score tonight. I realize it's pretty misleading, but I was trying to illustrate how bad the Wizards offense has been. It is pretty confusing though]

Open Thread: Game 11

2006-11-22T17:40:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 11
Wizards (4-6) vs. Rockets (7-4)
Toyota Center
8:30 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

Not much time to post. Traveling was tough today and I have limited internet access until Sunday, so I'll post a full recap of Dallas and Houston in tandem tomorrow. Wizards are looking for their first road win, but coming off last night's performance, I don't like their chances. They're going to struggle to deal with Yao more than the Rockets guards are going to struggle with Arenas, even with Kirk Snyder out. Don't be surprised if Houston puts Shane Battier on Agent Zero to bother jump shots.

Rockets Blogs: Clutch Fans, Rockets Blast, Globetrotter

For the Wizards to win, Antwan Jamison and Caron Butler need to help Arenas with scoring. Both have been focusing on other things recently (defense for Jamison, rebounding for Butler), but Arenas needs help with scoring. They also have to stay close with Houston for three quarters, because the Rockets have struggled to finish games this year. Avoid the lapses and runs they've given up in previous road games, and the Wizards have a chance in the fourth quarter to pull this one out.

I still don't see it happening. Houston is rested and Yao is going to have a field day inside.

Prediction: Rockets 108, Wizards 95

If you're watching, feel free to post some thoughts.

A Missed Opportunity

2006-11-21T22:58:00.000-08:00

I'll have more tomorrow once I land in Florida for Thanksgiving vacation, but that just sucked in the second half tonight. You had to think that the Mavericks would heat up after shooting 35 percent in the first half, but that was ridiculous. When are the Big 3 finally going to all click in the same game?

Dallas, by the way, is the best coached team in basketball. Avery Johnson has inspired his team to a 7 game winning streak without arguably their second-best player in Josh Howard (I think Terry is a bit overrated). They have a superstar and a number of guys who fill their roles incredibly effectively. Thrashing any team that way in the fourth of a five game swing is remarkably impressive.

Again, more coming tomorrow.

Open Thread: Game 10

2006-11-21T13:09:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 10
Wizards (4-5) vs. Mavericks (6-4)
American Airlines Center
8:30
CSN and NBA League Pass

The Wizards embark on a crucial three game road trip against the Texas twosome of Dallas and Houston in the next two days and Memphis on Friday. Combined with the home game against Detroit on Saturday, and this 4-games-in-5-days stretch is potentially brutal. It seems odd to say it, but this may be the Wizards best chance to get a win, even if Dallas has won six games in a row.

Mavericks Blogs: Mavs Moneyball, who says the following on this game.

The Mavs will have to play a lot better than they did yesterday to beat the Wizards tonight. Not only is Washington significantly better than the Bobcats, they had the day off yesterday and Gilbert Arenas is coming off a 45 point game. If Devin Harris and Greg Buckner, who will probably have the job of guarding Agent Zero, look as tired as Anthony Johnson did last night the Mavs are in trouble. But if they win, it will be their 7th in a row and their fourth in five nights. They'll officially be back (they're back already, but I don't think it's official yet) with a win tonight.

I'm with Wes on this analysis. Dallas did not look good last night in their win over Charlotte, and now they have to travel halfway across the country to play a Wizards team that is coming off a big win and two full days of rest. The Mavericks guards looked hobbled last night with the exception of Devin Harris, and unless Dallas decides to put a big wing like Greg Bucker on Arenas, they should struggle to defend him. If there is any night that Arenas can break out of his road funk, it's tonight.

Of course, there are still two problems that remain. First, who do you put on Dirk Nowitzki. San Antonio had success a couple years ago with Bruce Bowen, but Dirk has learned to take that player down on the block and shoot over him. Antwan Jamison, as an anonymous commenter said, "could not guard a locked door," so he's probably not an option. That may leave the Wizards with no choice but to play Etan and Haywood together, which hurts the offense's output. The other option is to have Butler guard Dirk, but then Dirk will just shoot over him. It's a dilema, for sure.

The other is that Erick Dampier has been a monster recently. The Wizards pride themselves on attacking the rim, but with Dampier down there, it may be more difficult. If he has a big game, the Wizards are just going to be the same jump-shooting team they are always accused to being, and that's not going to bode well.

Still, I think Dallas will be tired and the Wizards will have enough to get a road win before getting spanked in Houston tomorrow night.

Prediction: Wizards 106, Mavericks 96

Sound off if you're watching!

He Did What!

2006-11-21T13:05:00.000-08:00

It's been posted all over the internet, but Nate Robinson's block on Yao last night was freaking insane.

Play of the year? When will Gilbert Arenas do something like that?

Remember When MJ Was Supposed to Lead Us to the Promised Land?

2006-11-20T23:05:00.000-08:00

It feels like most Wizards fans are happy with the team as it is now, but there was a time when Michael Jordan was supposed to be the savior of the franchise. I know this can be a depressing topic, and I have already posted about this before, but I stumbled across this 2001 ESPN the Magazine article, and it just made me laugh reading the type of stuff that was said.

I'm just going to let the excerpt speak for themselves.

In fact, us Bullets fans have just read the first media-contrived trade rumor -- San Antonio’s Tony Parker for MJ -- which is enough to make us keel over. Parker’s had a nice couple of months, and now he’s Jason Kidd? Stop it.

Tony Parker would be nice right about now. But don't worry, there's more.

The truth is, Michael’s helping us over the long and short run by staying exactly where he is. We don’t want to hear how his presence is retarding Courtney Alexander’s growth or how he’s nit-picking Kwame Brown to death. In two months, he has taught them more about winning than they knew their whole lives. He’s taught them about not moping when your shot is off. About actually playing defense when your shot is off (see that, Courtney?). About hitting the boards and boxing out when your shot is off (see that, Kwame?).

Yeah...okay...whatever. This next part is funny for current Wizards fans.

We’re not promising we can make the playoffs, but have you seen Brendan Haywood lately? Teams aren’t waltzing in for layups anymore because of the 7-footer, and, on offense, Haywood has shown incredibly efficient hands, Chris Webber hands. Had 17 points, 15 boards and four blocks in Memphis. Of course, all of those drooling GMs are coming after Haywood now, figuring they can dupe Wes into trading him (which they probably can). Alas, the Washington Post just reported that the Bullets consider Haywood an "untouchable." We’re hoping that’s a sign that Wes isn’t actually in charge, and we’ll leave it at that.

More Haywood stuff.

The other enigma everyone’s talking about is Brown, and we think you all need to leave him alone. He’s 19, for godsakes...The point is, Brown just needs to keep observing Haywood, and keep figuring this four-games-a-week thing out. Just a few games ago, he went for 10 points and 12 boards, and he’s got a nice touch. You can play him at the 3, even.

And finally, my favorite part.

Obviously, if [Richard] Hamilton could bring you a guy like Shawn Marion -- who, mind you, Wes passed on in the 1999 draft -- we’d do a trade, but the other team will have to give up an athletic future superstar to get us to part with Rip.

Or...you could trade him for an older version of the same player in Jerry Stackhouse. That makes perfect sense! Also, the Wizards took Rip Hamilton instead of Marion. I don't think you can really fault Wes Unseld for that pick.

"Bullets Fever" [ESPN the Magazine]

Eddie Jordan Trying to Lose Weight

2006-11-20T15:34:00.000-08:00

From the DC Sports Bog comes this video of Eddie Jordan running shirtless on a treadmill while talking to reporters.

Hillareous? Pointless? What's the reaction?

Arenas Says Officials Bother Him on Road

2006-11-20T15:10:00.001-08:00

Via Ivan Carter's Wizards Insider:

At home, where they are 4-1, the Wiz are averaging 112.3 and on the road they are averaging 92.5. One key is Gilbert Arenas. For whatever reason, he's gotten way too caught up in the reffing on the road and has allowed that to affect his overall game. He had that odd opening night in Cleveland where he dished out 11 assists but otherwise looked passive and he was ice cold in New York.

"I've just got to carry over how I was tonight on the road and not worry about the calls and that other stuff. Sometimes, when I'm getting those charges on me and those ticky tack foulsI let that get me out of my rhythm."

To me, this is an interesting way to think about it. Arenas has certainly not been himself on the road; that's unquestionable. He's only averaging 18.3 points per game, 28 percent field goal shooting, and 17 percent from three point range on the road this season. I also do agree that it semes like he's worrying too much about the officials. It's not that he's whining--he has no technical fouls this year--but it seems like he's broken down his moves in such a way that is designed to get officials to notice and call fouls. This is invariably leading to Arenas making moves that he isn't necessarily comfortable and good at making, which takes away a lot of his production.

The problem with this is that the Wizards have been a bad road team for some time even before this season. They were 15-26 on the road last season and 16-25 the year before, and Arenas wasn't worrying as much about the officials then. That means that there has to be something else that is holding Washington back. My guess is that the Wizards lack the defensive intensity to win tough road games, but road wins can often be flukish by nature. Sometimes, you end up catching the better teams on back-to-backs, which means they don't play as well. This doesn't mean we can denounce the Wizards' disturbing trend, but it makes you wonder whether the solution is as simple as it seems.

Do you agree that Arenas plays too much for the officials? What do you think is ultimately the Wizards problem in road games?

Gilbert Arenas says...

2006-11-19T22:51:00.000-08:00

Gilbert Arenas' blog is definetly one of my favorite reads, but I don't get a chance to check it out all the time because it doesn't have an RSS feed. But, in spirit of his 45 point game and Hype's hillareous post, let's take a look at the best from his latest entry.

On his Halo team:

My Halo team, the Halo team I sponsor, “Final Boss,” they play in Las Vegas on the 17th for the championship round. And they have their own television show on, what is it? USA Network, I think. I don’t even have my own TV show! But I’m on their show Dec. 9.
It’s just amazing. I’m just trying to get my hands into different things that people are interested in. You know, see how we can get the young video game minds into basketball courts and vice versa.

Of course, what invariably ends up happening is that it's a one-way street with Gilbert simply playing Halo with them. I'd love to see these Halo players come to Verizon Center and maybe shoot some shots at halftime. Maybe the crowd can watch the guys play Halo against each other on the big screen. The possibilities are endless.

On the stigma that he's a ball-hog.

To me, I don’t even pay attention to that anymore. Because, if I was a two, a 2-guard, you know, I’d just be a great scorer. But, since I’m playing the point position, you know, I’m a guy who shoots a lot. It’s easy to pick on me for some reason, but, every team I’ve played with I might average 29-28, but I’ll also have two players that average 20 and 20. So, for some guy who is jacking it up, how come I’m always with two other players that score that much? I’ve never seen anybody else in this league that have two players on their team that are scorers like mine.

Very true. I'm not sure where this comes from, honestly. How many people think Arenas is a ball hog? Raise your hand if you do.

On the Knicks.

If they decide to play basketball, they’ll be a dangerous team.

I guess Arenas should inform Isaiah Thomas that Stephon Marbury throws a wicked gyroball.

Finally, on the all-star ballot.

I know ballots are out. I know Puffy had the Vote or Die, you know, with them shirts. You know, I want to have, “If no one votes for me, I’m not going to do anymore blogs.”

I'm just going to refer you over to Hype's post for more on this. It's pure comedic gold.

Gilbert Wants You to Vote, For Him [The Hype]
Gaining In the Race [Gilbert Arenas' NBA.com Blog]

How hillareous is Gilbert Arenas' blog? Does it do his character justice?

Wizards 111, Cavaliers 99: Agent Zero Loves Goooold

2006-11-19T15:22:00.000-08:00

I guess forgetting to post an open thread is lucky.

Either that, or gold jerseys do something to Gilbert Arenas and the rest of the Wizards, because that was about as satisfying a win as this team has had in a while. The score may be 111-99, but that looks a lot closer than it really was, because Cleveland went on a pointless 14-0 nothing run to close the game.

I said yesterday that despite the loss to Detroit, there were some positive signs. The Wizards shot poorly even by their standards for two straight games, and you had to expect that to turn around simply by the law of averages. The perimeter defense was better Friday, and the Wizards were able to win the rebounding battle. The only thing stopping the Wizards was their own shooting, which was bound to improve after three off nights in a row.

One need not look further than at Arenas to see the difference in shooting yesterday. Arenas was on fire, scoring 45 points and draining 7 of 11 threes. With Larry Hughes injured, there was nobody that could guard Arenas yesterday. Cleveland put LeBron James on Arenas for a stretch, and we all know that the King leaves a little to be desired on the defensive end. Combine all that with the home-court advantage, and it's no surprise that Arenas went off last night.

DeShawn Stevenson was also solid yesterday, with 15 points and really solid perimeter defense. The Wizards did allow Cleveland to shoot 47 percent from the floor, but for the most part, it was guys like Damon Jones and Sasha Pavlovic that had success. Drew Gooden, who gave the Wizards so much trouble in the first matchup, was nowhere to be found. Cleveland also really missed Larry Hughes, who was the real star of the opening day win. The Wizards defended the three well (31 percent) and forced guys like Jones and Pavlovic to beat them. It was a strong defensive scheme and it worked extremely well, especially in the third quarter, where the Wizards made their big run.

I hate to be the guy shooting down all the optimists, but despite blowing out a really good Cavaliers team, the Wizards didn't answer two of the biggest questions surrounding this team.

First, can this team win if Arenas is not shooting the ball well. In the Wizards' four wins this year, Arenas has scored 45, 43, 40, and 29 points. The best teams find ways to win even if their star is having an off night, and I still haven't seen any sign that the Wizards can win if Arenas is struggling. I don't expect Arenas' Jekyll and Hyde routine to continue, but there are going to be plenty of games where he doesn't produce. When that happens, the Wizards need to buckle down and figure out how to grind their way to wins. Caron Butler and Stevenson need to be consistent defensively and still be able to find ways to produce enough offensive scoring.

Secondly, and most importantly, this wasn't a road win. We know the Wizards can destroy even the best teams at home. We know the Wizards shoot better and somehow play much more aggressively in the Verizon Center than they do on the road. Obviously, the Wizards couldn't answer this question tonight, but when you watch this team play at home, it's easy to wonder where this type of effort and scrappiness is when they hit the road. If the Wizards are serious about competing, they need to start winning key road games. This next stretch of games is going to be huge for the Wizards. They desperately need a big win, especially against either Dallas or Houston.

A couple more thoughts:

I wasn't sure what I thought about the gold jerseys when I first heard about them, but I know now. They're horrendous. Get them out of there. I'm sure UniWatch will be all over these jerseys soon, but I can't understand how gold and black actually makes sense. The colors clash incredibly. A gold jersey like that is blinding on its own, but when you combine it with black, it makes it so much worse. However, if the Wizards contiue to play this well in gold, then I'm all for the unis.
I'm glad to hear Jarvis Hayes is okay. That spill looked pretty bad, and it was scary to watch him be carted off. Les Bullez is all over Hayes, saying he should have known better than to put himself in that situation. I have to respectfully disagree. There's no way you can expect a competitor like Hayes who is there to bring energy off the bench to suddenly let a guy go right by him. If this was a situation where Cleveland was down 7 with 45 seconds left, where an And 1 would have really hurt, I can understand, but when it's that much of a blowout, the score doesn't even matter anyway. It's unfortunate that Hayes got hurt, but you can't just let someone drive by you without even trying to stop him. I'm happy Jarvis is okay. Now just stop shooting bad jumpers! [edit] Hayes is day-to-day, which probably means he'll miss two months.

Postgame thoughts? What did you think of the win?

Not Wizards Related, But...

2006-11-18T11:53:00.000-08:00

It's an exciting time to be a Maryland Terrapins basketball fan.

I'm not going to analyze this too much (that's for the guys at Turtle Soup), but I will leave you with this.

The last team to win the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic? Florida. What happened to them last year? We all pretty much know.

How did you feel about Maryland winning the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic yesterday?

Pistons 100, Wizards 91: Wizards D Cures Ailing Pistons O in Detroit Win

2006-11-18T11:38:00.000-08:00

For nearly four full quarters, the Wizards outplayed Detroit last night, but one 13-0 stretch in the third quarter allowed Detroit to pull away for the 9 point victory last night.

I actually thought the Wizards did a lot of things right yesterday. They shot fairly well from two-point range, held Detroit to 43 percent shooting, and won the rebound battle. But two things really went wrong yesterday that cost the Wizards the game.

First, Detroit was an obscene 8 of 16 from three point range. Tayshaun Price and Rasheed Wallace on their own shot 6 of 9. Prince hit two of those threes during that decisive 13-0 third quarter run. I said the Wizards would struggle to defend Richard Hamilton on the perimeter (and they did), but I expected a better effort defending Tayshaun Prince.

The other thing was that the Wizards shot only 21 free throws. For a team that jacks up as many shots as Washington, they need to get to the line more. Arenas was a main culprit, as he only shot 6 free throws on the night. Without Ben Wallace in the middle, the Wizards have no real excuse to not attack the rim. This is not a characteristic problem, but when you combine it with the inability to defend the perimeter, it becomes a much greater problem.

One of these days, I'm going to devote a post to Antonio Daniels. He's arguably the teams most unsung hero, and it feels like he helps bring the Wizards back from a fourth-quarter deficit every night. He did it again tonight with some awesome drives to the basket, especially in the fourth. If only the Wizards had not created a deficit for themselves.

Overall, it's disappointing to lose, but the Wizards did play better. Detroit needed this one badly and it showed. With Cleveland playing really well right now, the Wizards need to match the desire Detroit had last night in tonight's home contest. Both teams are on a back-to-back, so that cannot be an excuse.

Postgame thoughts? What did you take away from yesterday's loss?

Open Thread: Game 8

2006-11-17T12:51:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 8
Wizards (3-4) vs. Pistons (3-5)
The Palace at Auburn Hills
8 PM
ESPN

Despite winning 64 games last year, the Pistons curiously struggled with the Wizards last year. Of their 18 losses, 3 came against Les Bullez. Granted, one of those games was a late-season contest where Detroit rested all their starters, but it's still very interesting that the Pistons struggled so much against the Wizards last season. There was that double overtime thriller early in the year where Gilbert Arenas scored 39 and Caron Butler and Chucky Atkins had 27 and 20 each. Hopefully, the success carries over this time around.

Pistons Blogs: Detroit Bad Boys, Need4Sheed, Motoring, The Detroit Pistons Today

Last year, the Wizards had success against Detroit because they were able to turn the contests into perimeter battles. Without a real inside threat to play against, Ben Wallace wasn't his usual self last year in the three games. He fouled out of the first one, was rendered useless in the second matchup, and barely played in the third one. Wallace, obviously, is gone, and Nazr Mohammad is there in his place, meaning conventional wisdom should dictate that the Wizards are going to have similar success.

Of course, conventional wisdom doesn't always work with this team. The Wizards outshot Detroit from the line in every game last year, and that should continue again. This means that as long as the Wizards make some shots, they should have at least a fighting chance. Arenas has to have a big game tonight from the field if the Wizards are going to win.

On the other side, the Wizards need to keep Detroit in jump-shooting mode and focus on contesting every shot. Richard Hamilton is back in the lineup tonight, and he has the ability to work off screens for open shots. Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson have to be able to fight through the picks and prevent open jumpers. That's not an easy task, but the Wizards did hold Hamilton in check last year. On the ball defense on Chauncey Billups is key as well.

The other major problem is that Detroit is going to be desperate and they're playing at home. The Wizards have the ability to win this game, but they must match Detroit's desperation. This is a major game for the Wizards too. They have to play like it.

Go Wizards!

Prediction: Wizards 102, Pistons 99

If you're here during the game, post your thoughts!

Keeping Things Simple

2006-11-16T20:29:00.000-08:00

Losing to the New York Knicks can naturally set off a fan base as fragile as ours. Considering all the stuff we've been through, it makes sense for fans to go crazy after every bad loss. It's easy to forget that the Knicks, as bad as they were last year, did win 23 games, some of which were blowouts. Bad games happen, and even back-to-back bad games happen.

Reading some of the comments on the latest Wizards Insider entry made this post necessary. I feel like the problem with the Wizards through 7 games this year is not as complex as people are making it out to be. Time and time again, fans wondered aloud why the Wizards weren't taking the ball to the basket in this game. Ivan Carter himself even mentioned it. All these complaints ignored the fact that the Wizards scored over a third of their points last night on free throws. They were 36-40 from the line!!!! There are lots of reasons the Wizards got spanked last night, but a lack of aggressivness taking the ball to the rim is not one of them.

To me, the problem is much, much simpler. Jones on the NBA has a great post preaching patience and showing tons of examples of teams trying to do too much too quick. He applies this logic mostly in terms of front office moves, but I see the same type of things happening with the Wizards on the court. Players are pressing because they are trying to do too much. It's as if they are thinking in the back of their heads about their deficiencies instead of figuring out how to maximize their strengths.

Gilbert Arenas isn't going to turn into a playmaker overnight. Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood aren't going to be great every night right away. Jarvis Hayes hasn't played in a real game in a long time, so expecting him to suddenly fit in is unrealistic. I feel like the Wizards have failed thus far because they are trying to become a perfect team too quickly. Instead of looking at development as a series of stages, the Wizards want to jump all the way to the end.

I don't really have any emperical evidence to prove this, but it seems to me that the last two games have indicated that Wizards players are overwhelmed out there. Arenas is not playing with the same free flow as he did last year, probably because he's become overwhelmed with his deficiencies. Same with Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood. In general, the offense seems too routine; it's as if I can predict exactly what will happen on any given possession. Defensively, there have been high points and low points, but we can't expect the team to become a better unit right away.

What I'm advocating for is a simple mindset change. The Wizards have gotten away from their scrappy style in the last few games, and that needs to return. Interestingly enough, Detroit is another team that has to regain their mentality early on. I hate resorting to an argument like this, but the bottom line is that whichever team can regain their edge will win tomorrow.

Is this warranted? Should we actually be concerned after 7 games? Is this really the problem?

Knicks 102, Wizards 82: Umm...Yeah...

2006-11-15T22:08:00.000-08:00

I'm always hesitant to promote intangibles as a primary cause for success or failure, simply because of the danger of over-relying on elements that are difficult to emperically define. However, in light of this performance, I feel pretty confident in saying the following statement.

The Knicks wanted it more than the Wizards tonight.

How else can you explain how the Knicks' second unit, led by David Lee and Renaldo Balkman, outplaying the Wizards starters in the fourth quarter? How else can you explain the Wizards going 36-40 from the free throw line and getting blown out by 20?

Understandibly, the Knicks second unit has arguably been stronger than their first unit, but this has occured mostly against other team's second units. Today, Isaiah Thomas finally played them for extended minutes, and it paid off. Balkman finally got real minutes and he made the most of them. They had more energy on both ends of the floor, and it was contageous. Lee in particular was a beast on the offensive boards, and Balkman was all over the floor offensively and defensively. It's no accident the Knicks pounded the Wizards 52-39 on the boards, held them to 31.5 percent from the field and 0-15 from three-point range.

This kind of felt like one of those mid-majors going up against a Kansas or a North Carolina in the NCAA Tournament. The underdog, with the crowd in its favor, uses the energy and races ahead to a consistent 4-8 point lead for a long period of time. All the while, you sit there thinking sooner or later the better team will get their act together and turn things around. The problem is, the more the underdog, energetic team invariably gains more energy, gets the crowd into it more, and uses that energy to thwart a comeback and potentially turn the game into even more of a blowout. I can remember the crowd being very out of it early on and slowly getting into it when the Knicks were turning it on.

Again, I hate using this analysis, because it's all based on subjective findings and it doesn't help to signify a strong trend. But I have to hand it to the Knicks tonight; they deserved to win by even more and they really shut down the Wizards' offense.

If I can pick out a real trend that is particularly disturbing, it's rebounding again. Do not ignore the importance of rebounding. The Wizards struggled tonight, and it meant that they got blown out despite going to the free throw line so much. The Knicks aren't exactly known as a rebounding powerhouse, which makes tonight's line even more disturbing.

All this makes for an interesting game on Friday against Detroit. Both teams are struggling, and both teams are in about as much of a must-win situation as you can be this early in the season. One thing's for sure though; a loss tonight really hurts the Wizards.

Postgame thoughts? What did you think of tonight's loss? If you need to air some grievances, feel free to let it loose.

Open Thread: Game 7

2006-11-15T16:53:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 7
Wizards (3-3) vs. Knicks (2-6)
Madison Square Garden
7:30 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

The game has already started, so this will be short and quick. Wizards need a win, Knicks stink, therefore, a win is expected.

If you are here from SI.COM, welcome to Bullets Fever, your community site for the Washington Wizards. If you are a regular reader, the big news is that Sports Illustrated writer Andy Gray mentioned Bullets Fever in his 3-Pointers column, specifically the open thread for Brendan Haywood trade offers. Be sure to check out the column.

Knicks Blogs: Knickerblogger, Your New York Knicks, Father Knickerbocker

There's more major site news coming soon, so stay tuned, whether you are an old reader or a new one. That's all I'll say about that.

In the meantime, a prediction. Wizards 118, Knicks 107. And yes, I know Jamison is sucking so far today, and the Knicks have the early lead. Take it to the hole!

Go Wizards!

It Gets Tough Now

2006-11-14T16:50:00.000-08:00

The Wizards' blown opportunity against New Jersey on Sunday was bad enough, but considering the difficulty of the upcoming schedule, it could end up being a catastrophic performance.

After going to Madison Square Garden to face the Knicks tomorrow, the Wizards have no easy games until the end of November. A win tomorrow is even more imperitave when you consider the games that follow.

-At Detroit
-Cleveland
-At Dallas
-At Houston
-At Memphis
-Detroit
-Atlanta

I'm guessing that this is as tough a 7 game stretch as the Wizards will face all year. The back-to-back in Texas is particularly imposing, considering how well Houston is playing. Two games against Detroit are certainly not going to be easy, even though they're struggling and the Wizards swept them last year. Cleveland is always a tough game, and they're playing better than ever before. Memphis is not particularly imposing, but it's right after the Texas games and the Wizards have a tendency to let down on the road. I add Atlanta in there becuase I think they're still going to be a tough out by the end of the month.

So what's realistic here? If the Wizards go 7-0, 6-1, or 5-2, it's pure gravy. Such a stretch wouldn't shock me considering how hot this team can get, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.

4-3 is a legitimate possiblity, and it puts the Wizards right where they should be as they enter an easy part of their schedule (all tough games in early December are at home). If the Wizards can split with Detroit and beat Cleveland, Memphis, and Atlanta, that would be alright. This seems like the logical projection, but this team can make you want to pick up logic and slam it on the floor.

What if the Wizards go under .500? 3-4 wouldn't concern or shock me. Cleveland is rebounding the ball at an astounding rate, and they could easily win that one. If the Wizards win the other 3 games, they'll be alright.

2-5 or 1-6 or even 0-7 would be a major problem. It would signify that the rebounding woes still exist and the team may need to make a move.

Clearly, however, this stretch will define the early part of the Wizards' season. Whether it's positive or negative will depend on rebounding and defensive progress.

Go Wizards!

What's a realistic possiblity for this stretch in your eyes? What do you think is going to end up happening?

Why Rebounding Matters and Why Small-Ball Needs It

2006-11-13T23:35:00.000-08:00

2007 was supposed to be the year where small-ball revolutionized the game of basketball, but so far, there is a stigma that it's failing. Already, we're seeing analysts like Scoop Jackson and Charles Barkely calling out the Phoenix Suns for their failure to make small-ball work.

So far, we've mostly seen speculation about Phoenix's lack of chemistry and inability to defend. The Amare situation is screwing with their heads, Boris Diaw is out of shape, they don't like playing together anymore, Jalen Rose does nothing, etc. It's this humble bloggers' opinion that all this gibberish is worthless, and the real problem lies is something much more simple.

Rebounding.

6 games does not signify a trend, but this was staggering to me.

Top 5 Rebounding Margins:

1. Cleveland: +10.5 (5-2)
2. Utah: +10.1 (6-1)
3. Houston: +6.1 (5-2)
4. NOOCH: +5.9 (4-3)
5. Orlando: +5.7 (5-3)

Bottom 5 Rebounding Margins:
1. Golden State: -8.0 (4-3)
2. Phoenix: -7.4 (2-5)
3. Milwaukee: -6.6 (2-5)
4. Minnesota: -6.5 (2-4)
5. Toronto: -6.0 (2-4)

What can we learn from this? Good teams need good rebounders. Even the good top scoring teams, excluding Golden State, rebound the ball decently. Atlanta is -0.3, Seattle is only -1.9, the Clippers are +2.6, and the Lakers are +2.1. The three teams doing poorly in the top 10 in scoring (Phoenix, Denver, and Milwaukee) all have negative rebound margins. Phoenix doesn't rebound well and it's killing them, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

Then, there are the Wizards, who are 3-3 with the sixth worst rebounding margin (-5.5) and the league's highest scoring offense (107.8 points per game). Washington has been a painfully average team all year, save for their blowout against Indiana. Take away that game, and the point differential has been -6.
As mentioned above, other up-tempo teams that succeed are ones that have rebounders. Atlanta has Zaza Pachulia and Josh Smith, two athletic, strong rebounders. Seattle has Nick Collison, a consumate tough guy and rebounder. The Clippers have two great big guys, and the Lakers are getting a ton of rebounds from Andrew Bynum.

The Wizards? Well, Etan Thomas is a good shot blocker and a tough guy, but he's not a great rebounder. Brendan Haywood is a taller version of Thomas, and Michael Ruffin plain sucks at everything. The end result has been that the Wizards go as Gilbert Arenas goes this season. When he's feeling it, the Wizards win; when he's off, they lose. If this happens all year, Washington will go 41-41 and miss the playoffs.

The team needs to find a consistent rebounding presence. If no trades are made, I'd advocate more playing time for Calvin Booth, as he at least will rebound better than Michael Ruffin. However, there's a trade that can happen, in my opinion.

Commenter Josh mentioned this briefly, and I'll add to it. Wait a month, and then trade Haywood to Denver for Reggie Evans and DerMarr Johnson. Haywood gives Denver insurance when Marcus Camby inevitably goes down, and Evans and Johnson are simply bit parts for them that they can afford to give up.

Would this work now? Hell no. Denver has no reason to do this, and they actually can't until December 15 anyway. But what happens when Camby goes down? Francisco Elson is in San Antonio, and Nene is still rehabbing his knee. They should be desperate for size, and Washington has it. So while this trade is not going to happen now, and may not happen in the end, I'm a fan of it.

For his efforts, Josh will be posting on here later this week. This doesn't mean other offers weren't good by any means (Haywood for Steven Hunter and parts intrigued me, as did Haywood for Dan Gadzuric). Still, rumors and speculation make this stuff fun, even if it's probably not plausible. So please, if you have a trade idea, shout it out, and I'll put up a post about it if I feel so inclined.

Do you think this trade work? Do you think the Wizards even need rebounding as bad as I think they do? Is a trade the answer to solve the problems, in your opinion?

Nets 105, Wizards 93: Ideal Wizards Hit Miracle Three, Survive Real Wizards in OT

2006-11-13T00:50:00.000-08:00

I'll get to the explanation of that title in a minute, but first, I need to get something off my chest.

My opinion of Bill Simmons has wavered, and readers of my old blog probably remember my classic takedown of this column he wrote after being knocked out of the 2006 World Series of Poker. However, after watching Vince Carter's game tying three hit the back of the rim and somehow drop in, I'm thinking he may be on to something about this new ball.

Take it from somebody who's been watching NBA games since he was still peeing on himself and calling P-B-and-J's the ideal meal: Something's up with the new ball. During Friday's Detroit-Boston game, Rip Hamilton dribbled full-speed toward the basket at the end of the first half, planted his feet at the top of the 3-point line with his momentum still going forward, then launched a 28-foot line drive that rammed off the back of the rim ... only that it stopped like it had been gunned down by a sniper and dropped through the basket.
Watching the game while running on the treadmill, I almost thought I'd blacked out for a second. How the hell did that brick go in? It seemed like an optical illusion, as if Fox Sports Net had CGI'd the shot (like MJ missing against the Cavs in the Gatorade commercial). Intrigued, I replayed the shot on TiVo ... and sure enough, the ball seemingly hit a dead spot on the rim and fell through like a bean bag.
One problem: There are no dead spots on metal rims. Wanna know why? THEY'RE MADE OF METAL!!!

I didn't see that shot, so I shook it off as classic Bill Simmons column filler. I felt like he was making a big deal out of nothing. But after watching that shot go in, I'm inclined to believe his claim that there's something up with the ball. I've honestly never seen a shot go in like that Carter shot did, and while my friends claimed that a ball shot with backspin can do that, I still was confused as to why we never saw that with the old ball.

But this loss was not about the ball, and I don't want to make it seem that way. Both teams played with it, meaning that both teams should have benefited from it equally. The Wizards had one great stretch in the third and fourth quarters, but were held in check in the first half and in overtime. Their inability to play a consistent game doomed them in the loss.

If the Wizards are ever going to take the next step as a defensive unit, the one team they should try to emulate is New Jersey. When you think of the Nets, defense doesn't usually come to mind right away. With Kidd, Carter, injured Richard Jefferson, and Nenad Kristic, this seems like the type of team with tons of offensive firepower, but the reality is that the New Jersey Nets win tons of games with their defense. Last year, they were third in the league in defensive efficiency, allowing only 102 points per 100 possessions, or about 1.02 points per possession. The Nets didn't have anyone ranked in the top 40 in blocked shots last year, and were only in the middle of the pack (16) when it came to forced turnovers.

What gives? The Nets simply defend the perimeter extremely well, as evidenced by the Wizards' 35 percent shooting tonight. What makes this even more shocking is that nobody on the team is known as a defensive stopper. Kidd was a few years ago, but he's too old to be that guy now. Jefferson probably comes closest, but he didn't even play today.

Basically, the Nets are a team that outworks their opponents defensively. By focusing on limiting open looks, the Nets are a remarkably better defensive unit. This proves for the millionth time that defense is not about your personnel, but about your approach and your effort. Nothing about the Nets team on paper screams defensive proficiency, but through hard work and an emphasis on the simple task of giving up fewer open shots, the Nets have become a strong defensive team.

Now you know why I titled this post the way I did. Isn't this exactly what the Wizards are trying to do? More accurately, isn't this exactly what the Wizards should be trying to do? They correctly didn't spend the house on an overrated "defensive presence" that wouldn't have actually done much, but they also still haven't totally figured out how to prevent open looks. The Wizards had their moments today, but Carter was way too open on that last three and Bostjan Nachbar had way too many open three point looks. When it mattered, the inability to defend the perimeter let the Wizards down again.

However, if anything, the message the Wizards should take from this game is a positive one. They played a team that is full of offensive-minded players, but still manages to finish in the top 10 of defensive efficiency year after year. Becoming a strong defensive team is not a futile goal, and with the right coaching, even offensive-minded guys that gamble in passing lanes can come together to be a solid defensive unit.

Postgame thoughts? What did you take away from the loss?

As a final message, I usually run a blogosphere links of the weekend thing on Sunday, but thanks to the 37th edition of the Carnival of the NBA at Phoenix Suns Rising, there's no need to do that. Be sure to check out Brian's Carl-Evil, as it is full of Awe-Some links from the NBA blogosphere.

Open Thread: Game 6

2006-11-12T14:17:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 6
Nets (2-2) vs. Wizards (3-2)
Verizon Center
6 PM
News Channel 8, NBA League Pass
Sports Talk 980

The Wizards close their three game homestand against the New Jersey Nets tonight at 6 PM. After sweeping the first two games, the Wizards look to capitalize and go to 3-0 on their homestand tonight.

I apologize for not recapping last night's game, as I've been really busy with college newspaper stuff. Essentially, the Milwaukee Bucks are the Wizards lite, except that they don't have a certified #2 and #3 options at this point. Their frontcourt has promise, but has been soft as a donut all season. They give Washington problems offensively because Michael Redd is the single most underrated player in basketball. Now that he scored 57 points to just keep his team in the game yesterday, people will understand. He only had 28 against the Wizards, but his drives allowed a guy like Dan Gadzuric to get 6 offensive rebounds and score 15 points. It speaks to Milwaukee's terribly inept perimeter defense that the Wizards were able to get back into this game and win it. In the end, the Bucks were only 4 of 18 from three-point range, which allowed the Wizards to escape with a win.

Nets blogs: Nothin' But Nets, Joe Nets Fan, Matt McQueen's Nothin' But Nets

The big news for this game is that the Nets will be without Richard Jefferson for a significant amount of time after he sprained his ankle against Miami on Friday. They are saying 2-4 weeks right now, but it's a Grade 2 sprain, meaning RJ could miss as much as 7 or 8 weeks. No matter how severe the injury is, he won't play tonight, which robs the Nets of a key offensive threat.

Without Jefferson, the Nets become infinently easier to defend. Throw two defenders at Vince Carter, stop Jason Kidd on the fast break, and force them to beat you with a million Nenad Kristic jumpers, and the Nets can be stopped. Marcus Williams has been very solid so far, but he's not the type of guy you have to desperately worry about. The Nets will start Antoine Wright tonight, and I don't expect him to be such a big threat in the offense.

On the other side of the ball, New Jersey actually had a pretty solid defense last year, although much of that has to do with Jefferson's perimeter quickness. Jason Kidd used to be a great defender, but he's lost a lot of his quickness. The Nets have an underrated interior defense, but they are still prone to quick guards like Dwayne Wade, who consistently torches them when the Heat and Nets play. Gilbert Arenas and company are exactly the type of players the Nets hate to defend.

In the end, I expect another Wizards win in a game that should be their best all-around performance of the season.

Prediction: Wizards 98, Nets 86

And, as a final reminder, I'm giving you guys until tomorrow to send in your Brendan Haywood trade proposals. Keep 'em coming.

Open Thread: Game 5

2006-11-10T14:14:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 5
Bucks (2-3) at Wizards (2-2)
Verizon Center
7 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

Coming off a shelacking of the Pacers two nights ago, the Wizards now host the Milwaukee Bucks tonight at home. The Bucks have lost three in a row after starting 2-0, with the latest being a 97-93 loss at home to the Rockets. On the bright side, the Bucks' young frontcourt of Charlie Villanueva and Andrew Bogut has been solid, although both have been extremely inconsistent. On the dark side, Mo Williams has been up and down stepping in for T.J. Ford, and you have to wonder whether he's the best guy to develop their young frontcourt. Michael Redd has been their only consistent threat thus far in the season.

Bucks Blogs: Bucks Diary, 5 Point Bucks

The Bucks and Wizards are incredibly similar teams, with the only different being Milwaukee's youth up front. The Wizards have a clear advantage in the backcourt offensively, as neither Williams nor Redd are strong defenders. However, Milwaukee gave the Wizards problems last year on the other end because of Redd's perimeter shooting ability. He provides the Wizards a really tough matchup because of his ability to shoot and slash to the rim.

The Wizards did a great job of shutting down the perimeter against Indiana, but this will be a true test of their perimeter defense. I'm guessing that DeShawn Stevenson will draw the defensive assignment against Redd, and his performance will determine whether they can come away with a win. This is exactly why the Wizards got Stevenson in the offseason, but through 4 games, he hasn't really been told to guard the opponent's top threat. Tonight is his chance to show that he's a strong defender.

Of course, on the other end, I don't think the Bucks have anyone who can stop Arenas. Charlie Bell may have to play heavy minutes, but then the Bucks lose something on the other end. I don't know if Arenas will get his third straight 40 point game at home, but I think he'll come close. I also expect Jamison to have a big game, because Villanueva is not a very good defender. The Wizards should have more easy buckets than Milwaukee because of the Bucks' lack of a shot blocking presence, but they'll give it all back if they get lazy defending the perimeter.

In the end, I expect a really high scoring affair, with the Wizards coming away with a tight win.

Prediction: Wizards 122, Bucks 116

As a reminder, keep sending those Brendan Haywood trade proposals. I'm giving people the weekend before I decide which one is best. I also probably should have clarified, but try to make it only one or two per person, if possible. There are still a number of trades I thought of that nobody has mentioned, so there's still plenty of possibilities out there. Keep sending them in!

Wizards 117, Pacers 91: That Was Refreshing

2006-11-09T10:05:00.000-08:00

It's true that Jermaine O'Neal was out of the lineup, but the Wizards win last night was still very impressive on all fronts. I didn't really expect Indiana to keep up with the Wizards' guards, but there were a number of other things the Wizards did well that I didn't expect at all.

For one, this was probably the Wizards' best defensive game that I can remember. Understandably, O'Neal was out, but the Wizards still held Indiana to 38 percent shooting and 4 for 19 from three-point range. Considering how poorly the Wizards usually defend the perimeter, this is an extremely encouraging sign. DeShawn Stevenson finally showed why the Wizards got him in the offseason, as he completely took Stephen Jackson out of the game. Granted, this is Stephen Jackson we're talking about, but Jackson's 5 point, 2 for 9 performance is still way below even his standards. The Pacers simply never got it going on the perimeter, and Stevenson deserves a lot of credit for that.

The other surprising development was the play of Brendan Haywood. Only two days after fighting with Etan Thomas and prompting this blogger to ask his readers for trade proposals, Haywood had easily his best game of the season with 9 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 24 minutes. Apparently, at least for the short term, Haywood has used that fight to motivate him to play better. As a 7 footer off the bench ,this is exactly the type of role Haywood can play when he's playing well. In past years, it felt like the team was hoping for Haywood to develop into a double-figure scorer in the post, but now that Thomas has beat him out, the focus has shifted for him. Hopefully, the adjustment will get Haywood to continue to play well.

With home games coming up against Milwaukee and New Jersey and a road game against the Knicks, the Wizards have a great chance to go into Detroit on a 4 game winning streak. At some point, you have to wonder why the Wizards play so much better at home than on the road, but it's still early and the Wizards are only a few points away from being undefeated.

In other news, Gilbert Arenas has an explanation for the robe he wore on opening night.

I was planning on doing it last year, but I just thought the way this year was going, it’s just The Takeover. I’m trying be mentioned. If I came out in that robe and had a bad game, they was gonna make fun of me. That’s how I was getting pumped for the game. I want all of this to come back on me. A lady made it for me for my birthday two years ago. I used to use it when I used to beat Chucky Atkins in dominoes. I used to come out to the gym after I’d beat him and I’d say, “I’m the king!” and I’d hold the belt. And Chucky used to die laughing from it.

Again, Arenas is at the point where he can do whatever he wants as long as it works. There's nothing he could do that would surprise me at this point.

Finally, as a final reminder, keep sending in possible Brendan Haywood trades. So far, I've gotten a lot of interesting ideas, but keep thinking for the next week and I'll decide which one I like best.

Postgame thoughts? What are your impressions from yesterday's win?

Open Thread: Game 4

2006-11-08T15:01:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 4
Pacers (3-1) at Wizards (1-2)
Verizon Center
7 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

The Wizards return home today to face an Indiana Pacers team that has been playing solid basketball so far, with wins over Charlotte, New York, and Philadelphia, with only a loss to undefeated New Orleans. My biggest worry with Indiana was guard play, but Darrell Armstrong and Maryland alum Sarunas Jasikavicius have been solid in that regard. Jermaine O'Neal is having another strong season and has added nearly 4 blocks a game to his arsenal.

The Wizards are coming off a tough loss to Orlando, but they played well in most aspects of the game, with the huge exception being perimeter defense. The good news is that the Pacers don't exactly have a boatload of shooters, instead relying on slashers like Jamaal Tinsley, Al Harrington, and Danny Granger.

Pacers Blogs: Indy Cornrows

Indy has started 3-1, but considering they've beaten Charlotte, New York, and Philadelphia, I don't see it as so impressive. Nobody on this team wows me, but Rick Carlisle is proving why he's such a good coach. In their only loss, they played a New Orleans team that can expose their backcourt defensive weaknesses. The Wizards don't have Chris Paul, but I expect Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler to have big games tonight against a Pacers team that doesn't really have a big perimeter defender just yet. In addition, Indiana is on the second game of a back-to-back, and the Wizards are really strong at home. I don't expect this one to be too close.

Prediction: Wizards 110, Pacers 95

And, as a reminder, keep sending in your Brendan Haywood trade proposals, even if you don't think they'll happen. So far, we only have one offer, but I haven't even checked the trade tracker to see if it works. Keep sending them in!

Send in Your Brendan Haywood Trade Proposal!

2006-11-07T12:29:00.000-08:00

In light of the latest news surrounding the fistfight between Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas, it's becoming clear that Haywood is not taking his spot on the bench well. As such, it's pretty silly to keep having him on the team if he's barely going to do anything off the bench.

As the last vestige of the entire Michael Jordan era (Jarvis Hayes only was around for Year 2), Haywood symbolizes the old pushover laughable Wizards team. For two years, all he did was stand around and watch MJ work. He looked like he could develop into the Wizards starter for the next decade after the 2004/05 season, but he took a step back last year and he clearly isn't helping the Wizards right now with his whining and bad attitude. It's clear Thomas is going to start as long as he's healthy, and with Haywood not taking well to his bench status, the Wizards may have to move him.

There are a ton of Wizards fans that have been asking this for years. They've wanted to trade Haywood for anything, because anything has to be better than Haywood. I'm not a big Haywood fan either, but we have to realize that, if his attitude is okay (a big question mark), he provides the Wizards with a big guy who is an underrated defensive center. The problem is Thomas is also a good defensive center, he has a better attitude, and he's not bogging down the Wizards' offense. If Haywood didn't have an attitude problem, he'd be a major asset as a second center due to his length and size.

Unfortunately, it seems like the Wizards have no choice but to go in another direction. Haywood isn't worth the Wizards time at this point, because I see no indication that he'll turn his attitude around. This puts the Wizards in a bind, because they desperately need Haywood for their interior depth. With Darius Songaila sidelined, the Wizards basically have Haywood and Michael Ruffin only behind Thomas. Take away Haywood, and the team's top frontcourt reserve is Ruffin. That's pretty horrendous.

Making matters worse is that I don't see too many trade possibilities on the horizon. The problem is that I can't think of too many teams that would want Haywood. He's a legitimate 7 footer that only makes around the mid-level, but he just would be a horrendous fit on so many teams that rely on speed and smallball. In addition, what the Wizards really need to do is to add players, not consolidate their depth. The ideal would be for Haywood to be traded for a big and a small, but how many teams will do that. Finally, what the Wizards really need is frontcourt depth, but they're merely offering up a comparable big guy with a bad attitude. I can't think of too many teams willing to deal similar parts for each other.

Essentially, the only way Haywood gets traded for anything of real worth is if Ernie Grunfeld gets creative. Once Songaila gets back, it may make more sense to dump Haywood for draft picks or salary cap relief, but the Wizards simply don't have that luxury now. They need players and depth, not draft picks and salary cap relief.

In conclusion, for the Wizards to get any real worth, Ernie Grunfeld needs to get really creative.

Alright, so after that long rant, here's the real point of the post. One of the things I've tried to do is make this blog interactive for you readers, so the whole Haywood fiasco gave me an idea.

Here's what I'm asking you guys to do:

I want you guys to throw out some possible Haywood trades for Ernie Grunfeld to implement. Send in all your proposals either to my e-mail address on the page or in the comments section. Whoever sends in the one I like best will not only be recognized in a future entry, but they'll also win the right to write a post on this very blog. The post has to be about the Wizards, but beyond that, you can write about anything you want and I can't edit it!

Remember to make sure the trade works with the salary cap through the RealGM trade checker; if it doesn't, it can't be judged. When judging, I'm going to take into account a number of factors. First, does the trade help the Wizards? Second, is it plausible; will the other team think about accepting it. Finally, and most importantly, is it unique and creative?

Send those proposals in!

Magic 106, Wizards 103: Armchair NBA Analysts, Listen Up!

2006-11-06T20:05:00.000-08:00

Had you told me prior to the start of the game that Jameer Nelson and Dwight Howard would have combined for only 15 points, I would have asked you whether the Wizards won by 10 or by 20. Alas, thanks to the duo of Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling, Les Bullez lost by 3 to the Orlando Magic tonight.

I guess if there's any good that can come from this game, it's that perceptive people can finally realize what's really wrong with the Wizards defense. Those people that think the Wizards defense will only get better if there is a physical Ben Wallace-like presence inside need to stop it. Etan Thomas showed today that, when healthy, he can be a really good defensive presence inside. The problem is much more basic than that.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again. The bottom line is, the Wizards' perimeter defenders give up way too many open shots.

The Wizards struggle so much with getting through screens and general lack of concentration. There's no reason that Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling should be getting all those open looks. The Wizards emphasized improving on the ball defense by signing DeShawn Stevenson, but he struggles to get through screens and allows too many open looks for his man. Same with Caron Butler, who would be a phenomenal defender if he scaled down his gambling a little bit.

Through the first three games, this has been a recurring theme. Wizards opponents have shot at least 47 percent in every game, and the opponent's three-point percentage has gone up every game. There's absoultely no reason the Wizards should have lost today, but their inability to grasp the finer points of defense cost them once again. As long as Etan Thomas is healthy and the Wizards are outrebounding a team with Dwight Howard and Darko, the interior defense is fine. But when Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling are keying a fourth quarter run from the outside, that's a major problem.

Can this be corrected? I think that Wizards fans need to be patient. For the Wizards to truely be a stout perimeter halfcourt defensive unit, they need to start getting away from the gambling perimeter game that has dominated the team in the last two years. Sure, it's nice when Arenas and Butler get easy steals and dunks, but we may need to see fewer of those for the defense to really improve. For every time that one of them gets a steal by jumping the screen, there are two or three times where their man will run a simple fade cut and get an easy jumper. These habits are hard to shake, especially when there's a stigma that forcing turnovers is necessary to mask the apparent lack of size inside. It'll take time for the Wizards perimeter defenders to fully get it, especially when it seems like their gambling is encouraged to some degree.

It may be worth it for the Wizards to make a move to get a veteran perimeter role player to help those guys figure it out, but I don't know how possible that is at this point. For now, let's hope the perimeter guys can do a better job of preventing open looks, because that is clearly the problem.

I was going to end this here, but I just saw this news item that made me cringe. Haywood and Thomas apparently have a history, but this is still unacceptable at this point. I really don't know what to do with Haywood. On the one hand, how many teams can trot out a legitimate 7 footer with his contract and length. On the other hand, he kills the Wizards offense when he's in there, and he has a horrible attitude. It may be time to get rid of him, but the Wizards need to be careful to make sure that they get good value in return, because 7 footers aren't easy to find. Maybe Memphis will be willing to give Stromile Swift for him. Who knows?

Postgame thoughts? What are your impressions from tonight's loss? Also, throw out some Brendan Haywood trade possibilities.

Open Thread: Game 3

2006-11-06T14:38:00.000-08:00

(My fault: The logos aren't working for some reason. You'll have to live without them)

Regular Season Game 3
Wizards (1-1) at Magic (1-2)
TD Waterhouse Center
7 PM
CSN? (DC residents, throw me a bone here)

It's about time we saw exactly how good this Magic team really is for ourselves. I've said before that they scare the crap out of me, but I don't think they are quite good enough to pass Washington yet. They still don't have any reliable options on the wing, which will kill them when teams double Dwight Howard. Howard and Jameer Nelson have tons of potential, but both are still relatively inconsistent.

The Wizards are coming off a game where they scored often, but didn't play great defense. Eddie Jordan said once again that the defensive effort needs to improve, but it's about time we see it actually happen.

Magic blogs: Believing in Magic

The Wizards desperately need to force turnovers, because Howard is going to dominate them on the glass. With Howard and Darko, this is a team the Wizards don't match up with well. It will take at least 75 points combined from the Big 3 to beat this team, and with Orlando coming home after struggling the past two games, I don't see it happening. I'd feel really good if Washington won this one, because if past experience tells me anything, it's that they will fold on the road to a big team like Orlando.

Prediction: Magic 109, Wizards 98

Blogosphere Links of the Week

2006-11-05T19:34:00.000-08:00

The NBA blogosphere is full of awesome material, so every week, I'll try to give you a few of my favorite blog entries of the week. Here's what I got this weekend.

-First off, cheers to two new blogs on the sidebar, TWolves Blog and Indy Cornrows. Welcome to the blogosphere guys! It's a fun place to be.

-Les Bullez is going crazy already over this Wizards team. I'd have to agree...there are going to be a lot of ups and downs this year.

-The Basketball Jones gives you a sneak peak into what some players are saying on their websites. My personal favorite, of course.

“As starships explode majestically in the distance, I ask myself… am I alive? Am I the real Master Chief? I believe I am.” – zerotwohero.com"

-Michael Redd is a very spiritual man. Too spiritual for Bucks Diary, however.

-There's nothing like Pistons bloggers in a disagreement. Natalie at Need4Sheed is calling for signatures for a petition to get David Stern to "Save Sheed" and crack down on the no tolerance policy. However, Detroit Bad Boys disagrees, throwing support to the policy despite it's ramifications on Sheed.

I'm with DBB on this one. We're at the point where the referees have to call things overly tightly to show that they're serious about the policy. Once the players start to understand, things will calm down.

-The Opening Day Fiasco, curtesy Detroit Pistons Today. And oh yeah, my late piece for the thing is here.

-Free Darko on Gilbert Arenas' performance against Cleveland.

"I don't believe this was a moment of weakness or failure. And I don’t think this is all that interesting, having followed Gilbert madly since his rookie campaign. It’s Gilbert being Gilbert—kind of a nuisance, a set-up for drama, and the source of some fundamental questions about the order of the sport. I have no clue why he couldn’t get a shot to fall until the fourth, why he suddenly appeared fit to exchange three’s with LeBron, or why he then opted to give it to Jarvis Hayes twelve times in a row immediately after that. Most of all, I don’t get how an offensive-minded hellion responds to a scoring slump with some of the soundest distributing I’ve ever seen from him. I have learned to not look for explanations, and instead assume it’s like a bunch of crazy snowflakes that melt on top of a piece of paper that needs moisture."

-I can't believe I didn't pimp this earlier, but the inagural issue of the Hoops Addict Magazine is a must read. Major props to Ryan for putting this together.

-Phoenix Suns Rising on the new Jalen Rose signing. Clips Nation has their own take, as does Rose himself.

-And finally, one of the many mixes of Gilbert Arenas that will be posted during the year.

If you have another interesting link to mention, shout it out in the comments section!

Wizards 124, Celtics 117: I liike wiin. It's niice.

2006-11-05T12:22:00.000-08:00

As if it needed to be proved again, Gilbert Arenas showed why you can never count him out for too long. After going 2 for 12 and scoring only 7 points against Cleveland, he eruped for 44 points on only 14 made field goals to lead the Wizards to the win in their home opener.

This is your classic Washington Wizards high-scoring victory. They were nearly unstoppable in spurts, especially during the key third-quarter run to make it a double-digit game. However, they were also sloppy at times, allowing Boston way too many open looks. The Wizards needed practically every one of the 93 points the Big 3 put up to win this one.

I didn't watch the whole game, but from what I saw, here's what I liked and didn't like.

I liiiike

-The offense: Well, duh. When I talk about the Wizards' Big 3 clicking on all cylinders, this is what I'm talking about. How often will a team have a guy who scores 44 points, another who nearly gets 30, and a third who gets 20? It speaks to the efficiency of the Big 3 that they're able to all score so many points at the same time. I realize Boston is among the worst defensive teams in basketball, but if they score 73 points combined instead of 93, that will be enough to beat most teams.

-Forced turnovers: The Wizards, for the second game in a row, forced a ton of turnovers, stealing 11 balls and converting on 23 Celtic turnovers. That proved to be the difference in the game. Obviously, this has something to do with the Wizards' gambling style, but if you can force as many turnovers as you do, it can help to disguise a terrible defensive effort.

-Antonio Daniels: I can't stress enough how important a player Daniels is. He can play either the one or the two off the bench and provides solid veteran leadership and defense. Most importantly, Daniels is dynamite instant offense. Because of his slashing and driving nature, he can be counted on for production every game. He gets to the line, doesn't turn it over, and shoots really well from the free-throw line. When the Wizards start to fall into shooting too many jumpers, Daniels is always there to save them.

I nooo liiike

-The open looks: 52 percent from the field? 48 percent from three-point range? All this to the Celtics? This is a problem. Against Cleveland, I actually think the Wizards did a good job of preventing open looks, as I feel like Cleveland (especially Larry Hughes) just hit some tough shots. Tonight, though, it didn't seem like that. There's no way Wally Szczerbiak should have 33 points on 10 of 16 shooting. The Wizards don't really have the big defensive presence necessary to completely shut down the paint (although Brendan Haywood did have 3 blocks), but they can more easily control open shots. Too often, guys were trailing their defenders off the ball, allowing the guy coming off the screen an easy jump shot. This was something that was a point of emphasis all throughout training camp, so it's even more disconcerting to see.

-Rebounding: Understandibly, the Wizards don't have the horses to pound opponents on the glass. However, you have to be able to at least hold your own on the glass to be able to kick-start your high-octane attack. If you don't have the ball, you really can't score. The Celtics should not be outrebounding the Wizards by 15 without arguably their best rebounder in Theo Ratliff. Thomas, for all of the things he does well, does not rebound particularly well on the defensive glass. He should be grabbing way more than 6 rebounds.

-The minutes: Arenas, Jamison, and Butler all played more than 38 minutes last night. If they do that every game, they're going to tire easily. Eddie Jordan needs to show more confidence in guys like Roger Mason, Andray Blatche, and Donnell Taylor in future games. If they can each provide 10 solid minutes, that means more rest for the Big 3

Overall, a win's a win, but it could have been much better.

As for Borat, it's a must see. It's pretty tasteless, but who didn't expect it to be? If you know what to expect, you should love it.

Postgame thoughts? What are your impressions from yesterday's win?

Open Thread: Game 2

2006-11-04T12:27:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 2
Celtics (0-2) at Wizards (0-1)
Verizon Center
7 PM
NBA TV

It may be hard to believe, but one of the Wizards' most difficult opponents last season were the Celtics. The Wizards won the season series 2-1, but each game went down to the wire. Gilbert Arenas hit game-winning free throws twice--once with 3.5 seconds left and the other time with 1.7 seconds left--to lead the Wizards to two close wins over Boston in January. On March 7, the Celtics returned the favor, as Paul Pierce hit a game-winning three-pointer to give Boston a 116-115 victory. If thise year is any indication, this game will be pretty close.

Celtics Blogs: Celticsblog, Celtics 17, Celticsstuff Live, LOY's Palace, and many more.

I'm a bit conflicted on this one. On the one hand, the Celtics are in the second night of a back-to-back. On the other hand, they may be playing much harder to redeem themselves from an embarrasing 17 point loss to Detroit. In addition, last year's games were all close ones, and the Celtics arguably have more pieces this year. Still, with the Wizards at home, where they've dominated the past couple years, I can't see them losing.

Keep an eye on: Antawn Jamison. He's a tough matchup for either Al Jefferson or Ryan Gomes, because he's quick enough to beat Jefferson off the dribble, but big enough to get plenty of rebounds on Gomes. I expect him to have a big game tonight.

As a sidenote, I'm going to see Borat tonight, so I don't think I'll be watching. If you are watching, let's get a discussion going up here. In the meantime, you'll get a Borat recap along with a game recap.

Prediction: Wizards 106, Celtics 92

Community Projection: Etan Thomas

2006-11-03T08:42:00.000-08:00

It's safe to say that last year was a lost year for Etan Thomas. After an injury-filled 2004/05, he never got back on track, falling completely out of the rotation by the end of the year. The Wizards could have really used him in the Cleveland series, but he was so bad by the end of the year that Michael Ruffin was higher in the rotation. In the offseason, however, Thomas shocked everyone by winning the center job from Brendan Haywood and proved it with a strong performance against the Cavaliers.

Last year: 71 games, 15.7 minutes, 4.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.0 blocks

My projection: 70 games, 24.7 minutes, 7.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.7 blocks

Thomas' projected numbers are fairly similar to his 2004 numbers, with only a dip in scoring. I figure that since the team has so many more scorers than they did in 2004, Thomas shouldn't get nearly as many opportunities to score. With that being said, 7 boards in 24 minutes is pretty solid, as is 1.7 blocks. I expect him to be a key part of the squad as long as he's healthy.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Thomas' numbers in each of these categories.

Second Guessing the Crunch Time Lineup

2006-11-02T11:58:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, the Wizards, who struggled last year with finishing and winning the close games, whipped out a crunch-time lineup of Arenas, Daniels, Hayes, Butler, and Jamison.

Yeah, that's right. A lineup featuring four guards and a forward who plays like one. The lineup is interesting, to say the least. Wierder was that Hayes was the one that drew the LeBron assignment for much of the fourth quarter until they switched Butler back on him in the last two minutes. Not only that, but the ball was not in Arenas' or Butler's hands with the game on the line. Hayes had an open shot, but why was he even coming off that screen in the first place?

Even the Phoenix Suns would have said the Wizards went small last night. It's no wonder that Varejao was ever to get those two big rebounds and loose balls at the end of the game.

Reader Brett had this to say about the lineup.

I was disappointed to see newly minted starting C Thomas and newly acquired defensive stopper Stevenson on the pine down the stretch. After the 2 minute mark, there were 2 field goals made, both by Cleveland. One an uncontested dunk by Hughes and the other an uncontested lay-up by James. With the game on the line, our role players are forced to put up jumpers (Jarvis) while their stars are waltzing down the lane.

I agree with him to a point. I wouldn't have put Stevenson in there last night. The Wizards were down and it was only because of Antonio Daniels' aggressivness that they even got back in the game. I don't know what would have happened if Stevenson was in there instead of him. But I completely agree about Thomas. Why was Hayes in there instead of him? Thomas was tearing it up when he was in there, so why take him out for the trigger-happy Hayes? With Arenas, Jamison, and Butler, along with Daniels, you have plenty of scoring already. I realize Thomas is undersized, but he's going to get those loose balls that Varejao got yesterday. He'll also make it a little more difficult for Cleveland to get to the rim. I just never really understood what Hayes added to the attack by being out there.

I've scanned the Post for answers to this question and Ivan Carter never pulled the trigger, or at least never mentioned it in the beat article. I'd like to know whether he brought the crunch-time lineup with Jordan and what Jordan's response was. Why was Hayes in there when Thomas was playing so well? It's true that Washington was causing matchup problems with 5 perimeter players, but they are still causing matchup problem with Arenas, Butler, Daniels, and Jamison in there. I'd like to know where Jordan was coming from with that decision.

The Wizards struggled at the end of games last year, turning what should have been a 46 win season into a 42 win one. They lost to the Cavaliers in the playoffs last year mostly because they couldn't execute down the stretch. I realize most teams don't have a guy like LeBron who can completely break down a defense at the end of games, but the Wizards made it easier for him and Hughes by leaving Thomas out of the game.

Agree? Disagree? What should be the crunch-time lineup if last night's one isn't?

[update]: Carter disagrees with me. Here's what he said in his blog entry.

I did like the smaller lineup that consisted of Arenas, Butler, Hayes, Jamison and Daniels however. They were getting drive and kicks and creating good shots. The fellas just missed too many open looks. Jarvis had those two baseline J's and the three that would have given the Wiz a lead, and Jamison missed that open three at the buzzer.

Interesting...

[update 2]: Apparently, Eddie Jordan does too.

"Frankly, I thought the small lineup helped us," Jordan said. "I thought we defended [LeBron] James well enough. I thought we did some good things defensively. We got some steals. I think we were down 11 and we went to the small lineup and went up by two. When we had the big guys in there, they would run pick-and-rolls and our big guys were on the perimeter anyway. All the time, you said our small and midsize guys have to rebound the ball better and we didn't do it."

Cleveland 97, Washington 94: Welcome Back, Inconsistency!

2006-11-01T20:02:00.000-08:00

The calendar may have turned, but there was a distinct flavor of 2005/06 season and the 2006 playoffs in the game tonight. At times, the Wizards showed us why they're one of the up and coming teams in the league, but they also had a lot of bad moments.

As a whole, though, I wasn't too upset. Gilbert Arenas isn't going to shoot 2 for 14 very much this season, and the rest of the team played pretty well as a whole. Here's what else I took away from this game.

The Wizards need to get to the rim more in road games. Last year, the Wizards resorted too often to shooting jumpers on the road and seem allergic to the rim. Tonight was no exception, as they didn't consistently get to the line until the fourth quarter. Arenas in particular was the biggest culprit, shooting only two free throws in the game. Getting to the line will be the difference between winning the close road games and losing them.

As long as they stay healthy, Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood will be a competent duo in the middle. Both played well in stretches during the game.

Jarvis Hayes had a good game, but why is he the one shooting the biggest shot of the game? Why not Arenas or Butler?

Cleveland is going to be really good. Larry Hughes had a big game and Drew Gooden was awesome on the boards tonight. They played a really strong game tonight, with the exception of their sloppy stage in the second quarter. The fourth quarter was more of the Wizards finally getting it offensively, and Hughes and James were out at points during the Wizards' run.

As important as the Big 3 are, the Wizards cannot afford an injury to Antonio Daniels. His driving to the rim and solid ball-handling is invaluable and it was the reason the Wizards started their comeback.

I can't believe Jamison missed that shot.

Next up is Boston on Saturday in the home opener. Let's see if they can fix the problems of this game.

Postgame thoughts? What did you think of the loss?

Open Thread: Game 1

2006-11-01T11:14:00.000-08:00

Regular Season Game 1
Wizards (0-0) vs. Cavaliers (0-0)
Quicken-Loans Arena
7 PM
ESPN

4 months and 26 days after Damon Jones knocked the Wiz out of the playoffs, they get a chance at the Cavaliers again in the season opener.

To say that I'm excited for this game is a real understatement. It may not be the playoffs, but what better way to start off the season than a win over the Cavaliers.

Cavaliers blogs: Yay Sports!, Cavalier Attitude

I'm curious to see who gets most of the minutes on LeBron and whether Etan Thomas can stay in the game guarding Big Z. Also, will the Wizards be able to get out and run past the subpar Cleveland wing defenders? It should be interesting.

Prediction: Wizards 108, Cavaliers 100

Community Projection: Jarvis Hayes

2006-10-31T23:42:00.000-08:00

It seems like it happens every year. Jarvis Hayes starts the year showing lots of promise, displaying strong shooting and instant offense. Then, invariably, Hayes breaks his kneecap and is gone for the rest of the year. His games played has gone down from 70 to 54 to 21 in his three NBA seasons. Hayes actually started many games over Caron Butler last season and played well, but he was lost for the season very early in the year again. This year, the Wizards could really use him back healthy.

Last Season: 21 games, 24.6 minutes, 9.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 36.1 % three-point percentage

My Projection: 62 games, 21.3 minutes, 8.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 39 % three-point percentage

With Stevenson and Antonio Daniels taking up most of the crunch-time minutes on the wing, I expect Hayes to see a slight drop in minutes, thereby leading to less point production. However, this drop in minutes will allow Hayes to play in more games this season. I think it's a little presumptuous to expect Hayes to play a full 82 games, but 62 games seems pretty reasonable to me.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Hayes' numbers in each of those categories.

Community Projection: Antawn Jamison

2006-10-31T23:33:00.000-08:00

Last year was quietly one of Jamison's best years, as he set a career high in rebounds while shooting really well from the field. His defense left a lot to be desired, but on the whole, Jamison was a valuable cog for the team. He continued to transition into a perimeter forward, averaging a career high in three-point attempts and nearly averaging a career low in free throw attempts per game. This makes it all the more incredible that Jamison was able to average a career-high in rebounds, and he was only 0.7 rebounds a game away from averaging a double-double.

What's in store this season for Jamison?

Last year: 20.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 44.2 field goal percentage, 39.7 three point percentage

My Projection: 18.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 46% field goal percentage, 41% three-point percentage

Considering that I'm projected Caron Butler to significantly improve his scoring numbers, I expect Jamison's numbers to drop off. Butler is going to take more shots this year, and while Jamison has never been a player to demand the ball, he will invariably have some of the shots he had last year taken away. I still expect Jamison to have very good percentages, and he will still be a very good rebounder, but I think next year will be the start of a decline in his scoring production.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Jamison's numbers in each of those categories.

Songaila Out Three Months

2006-10-31T15:03:00.000-08:00

This is very bad news for the Wizards. Darius Songaila's back troubles are ultimately going to lead to surgery to repair the herniated disc and will miss at least half the year. Andray Blatche better grow up in a hurry, because otherwise the Wizards are going to struggle again with their frontcourt depth.

Who knew that when Songaila missed the first practice in training camp that it would ever become so serious?

How big a deal is this news? What do the Wizards need to do to compensate?

The Full Blog Preview List and Superlatives

2006-10-31T13:47:00.000-08:00

The NBA Blog Previews are done, and we're all ready to start the year. Here's a complete list of the team previews. Major, major kudos go out to Jeff at Celtics Blog for organizing this huge project. Collective action like this is one of the reasons I'm proud to run an NBA blog.

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics (presented by Celticsstuff Live, Celtics Blog, and LOY's Palace) 48-34, 42-40, 40-42 respectively
New Jersey Nets (presented by Nets Daily) 51-31
New York Knicks (presented by Bench Renaldo) 41-41
Philadelphia 76ers (presented by Passion and Pride) 47-35
Toronto Raptors (presented by Hoops Addict) 42-40

Central Division

Chicago Bulls (presented by Blog a Bull) 55-27
Cleveland Cavaliers (presented by Yay! Sports) 58-24
Detroit Pistons (presented by Detroit Bad Boys and Need4Sheed) 55-27, 57-25
Indiana Pacers (presented by Donning Craig Sager's Suit) 43-39
Milwaukee Bucks (presented by 5 Point Bucks) 44-39

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks (presented by Impending Firestorm) 37-45
Charlotte Bobcats (presented by Bobcat Bonfire) 42-40
Miami Heat (presented by Crazy From the Heat) 54-28
Orlando Magic (presented by Believing in Magic) 45-37
Washington Wizards (presented by Some Wierdo) 50-32

Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks (presented by Mavs Moneyball) 59-23
Houston Rockets (presented by Rockets Blast) 57-25
Memphis Grizzlies (presented by The Beale Street Beat) 45-37
New Orleans Hornets (presented by Hornets 24/7) 48-34
San Antonio Spurs (presented by Pounding the Rock) 58-24

Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets (presented by The Nugg Doctor) 51-31
Minnesota Timberwolves (presented by I Heart KG) 42-40
Portland Trailblazers (presented by True Hoop) 25-30 wins
Seattle Supersonics (presented by Sonics Central) 44-46 wins
Utah Jazz (presented by Lowpost.net) 43-39

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors (presented by Lowpost.net and Golden State of Mind) 35-47, 41-41
Los Angeles Clippers (presented by Clips Nation) 52-30
Los Angeles Lakers (presented by Jones on the NBA, Forum Blue and Gold, and Showtime) 48-34, 49-33, and 49-33 respectively
Phoenix Suns (presented by Phoenix Suns Rising and Suns Gossip) 60-22, 82-0
Sacramento Kings (presented by Sactown Royalty) 50-32

All these previews were really great, but I can't help but hand out a few superlatives.

Most Valuable Preview: It's no secret that the NBA blogosphere looks up to Henry Abbott at True Hoop, and for anyone who read his Portland Trailblazers preview, it's easy to see why. Abbott's comprehensive and realistic preview shed new light into a team that many have misinterpreted over the years. Abbott's preview was among the longer ones, but it never felt like a bore. Blog A Bull's Chicago preview takes a distant second.

The Dick Vitale Award for Most Optimistic Preview: Wow, there are so many to choose from here. Passion and Pride confused many with his prediction of 47 wins for the Sixers, and Bobcat Bonfire's 42 win prediction prompted Detroit Bad Boys' Ian Cameron to say "If the Bobcats win 42 games next year, I'll buy Detroit Shock season tickets." In the end, Bench Renaldo takes the cake for predicting 41 wins for the New York Knicks. Somewhere, Larry Brown is poking his eyes out.

The Bill Walton Award for Most Pessimistic Preview: Honestly, no preview was overly pessimistic, hardly a suprise when you ask a bunch of team bloggers to preview their teams. If someone pointed a gun at my head, I'd probably say Crazy From the Heat's Miami preview takes this one. While Vivek predicts an improvement in wins, he goes into great length describing his worry that the Heat will become complacent after winnng a title.

The Charles Barkley Award for Most Entertaining Preview: So many to choose from again, but the clear answer has to be the joint Phoenix Suns preview by Phoenix Suns Rising and Suns Gossip. The two played off each other like Kornheiser and Wilbon, with Brian providing the hard analysis and Suns Gossip providing the commentary.

Most Creative Preview: Hands down, Jason Gurney at Lowpost.net takes this with his interactive Golden State Warriors preview. A distant second is the Utah Jazz preview.

Most Unique Preview: Tom over at SacTown Royalty takes this one for his 93 question preview of the Sacramento Kings to close things off. Talk about leaving nothing to be unanswered.

6th Man Award: This goes out to Skeets and Tas at The Basketball Jones and Howie at NBA Basketball and Other Unrelatedness for keeping up with the previews despite not writing one themselves. TBJ's podcasts were another great way to start the season, and Howie's doodles were an entertaining break from the hard coverage.

Rookie Previewer of the Month: I hope that I can say that I at least shared this award after only blogging for a month and a half. Also, big props to newcomers Donning Craig Sager's Suit, Clips Nation, The Beale Street Beat, and Bobcat Bonfire.

Coach Preview of the Month: Again, one last chance to give Jeff some mad props on this project. Like I said before, it makes me proud to run an NBA blog when I can work with other team bloggers to produce a collective project like this. This was all Jeff's creation, so he deserves a lot of credit for putting it all together.

With all the previews done, it's time to get the season started!

What was your favorite NBA Blog Preview?

Community Projection: DeShawn Stevenson

2006-10-30T23:30:00.000-08:00

In Orlando last season, Stevenson was a model of consistency, playing in all 82 games, and averaging 11 points a game. It's probable that the relatively high point total is a factor of playing in 32 minutes per game, a number even I doubt Stevenson will achieve this season. However, with Steveson's defense, he should stay on the floor for quite a while and even play key crunch time minutes.

Last Season: 32.3 minutes, 11.0 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 46% field goal percentage

My Projection: 26.7 minutes, 7.2 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 48% field goal percentage

I don't expect Stevenson to do much scoring on this team. Orlando didn't have too many other options, so Stevenson averaged a solid amount of points in his time there. I don't really expect that to continue, but I think Stevenson will get a ton of open jumpers, which explain my projected jump in field goal percentage. No matter how many points he scores, Stevenson will see plenty of time because of his defense and toughness on the wing.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Stevenson's numbers in each of those categories.

It's Official: Thomas to Start Opening Night

2006-10-30T22:48:00.000-08:00

Raise your hand if you saw this one coming.

After ending the season out of the Wizards' rotation for their playoff series with Cleveland, Etan Thomas has officially been named the starting center over incumbent Brendan Haywood for the season's opener.

To say this was a shock is definetly an understatement.

This presents an interesting situation for Haywood. Les Bullez says that it's about time to get Haywood out of there.

Maybe Haywood just isn’t that good and with 4 scorers on the floor, they need defense and rebounding and not a 7 footer who loves to take fadeaway jumpers.

Haywood has struggled because he doesn't really fit the Wizards' new up-tempo style. When he played alongside Michael Jordan, Haywood was perfect because all he had to do was focus on rebounding and defense in the half-court. As long as he took up space, it made Jordan's job easier. Now, however, he tends to bog down the Wizards' high-octane attack, especially offensively. He hasn't really developed a good post game and doesn't run the floor as well as he should.

At the same time, Haywood's defensive ability is significantly underrated. His length frustrates many centers, particularly Zydrunas Ilgauskas, he of the Wizards' Game 1 opponent. As a defensive rebounder, Haywood is pretty decent as long as he maintains concentration. The problem, once again, is that he just doesn't fit into the Wizards' style.

In Haywood's defense (I guess), reader and brother Josh offers this comment.

did you hear etan has been named starting center? I don't like it, he's better suited coming off the bench a junkyard

I'm guessing that if Josh were to elaborate, he'd point to Etan's durability issues since he signed the big contract in 2004. More specifically, I think he'd also say that Thomas is best suited as a change-of-pace guy— a junkyard dog type who comes in during spurts and gives the Wizards energy and tenacity up front. The argument is that if you start Thomas, you lose some of the spark and raise the issue of durability. I feel like this is true, but I also think Thomas is more durable than it seems. He missed half of 2005, but has played in at least 67 games in every other year. Last season, he just simply wasn't good enough to get a regular rotation spot. From what I've been reading, it appears like he actually earned the job, showing that he's probably playing at his highest level in years. Essentially, Thomas' size is a much bigger issue than his lack of durability.

Ultimately, Eddie Jordan's decision culminates two years of washing away the Michael Jordan era and ushering in a whole new type of team. Haywood was the last relic of that team, and now that Thomas is starting, his role will be reduced. I still think the Wizards should hold onto Haywood for his size, but I'd give most of the minutes to Thomas. I'm a little worried about how Haywood will respond to being a reserve, but considering both guys should see the court plenty, I would be disappointed if he continues to hold a grudge. There's really no reason to trade him, as he's a 7 footer that has an affordable salary. I just hope his attitude will be better than in the past.

What's your take on the announcement? Is Thomas really a better option than Haywood?

Community Projection: Caron Butler

2006-10-30T21:30:00.000-08:00

Butler struggled a bit to start the season, but really came into his own once he was permanently inserted into the starting lineup halfway through the season. Other than Arenas, Butler was arguably the team's most indespendible player, as evidenced by the Wizards' late-season swoon without him in the lineup. He's completely over the thumb injury that bothered him late in the year and is all ready to have a breakout season.

Last Season: 75 games, 17.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.7 steals

My Projection: 79 games, 21.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.1 steals

I've said many times that Caron is going to have a big year, and I think 22, 7, and 2 steals does the trick. Despite being misused for one half of the year and injured for much of the other, Butler put up really good numbers last year. Assuming the thumb problems are behind him, he'll significantly improve on those numbers after a year in the offensive system. With DeShawn Stevenson around, Butler won't have to concentrate as much on defense, which will give him more energy to be a real offensive force.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Butler' numbers in each of those categories.

Community Projection: Antonio Daniels

2006-10-29T22:07:00.000-08:00

It's tough to know where I go with Daniels. On the one hand, the first four months of last year were basically a lost cause, so it's hard to base a projection on last year's stats. On the other hand, he's getting up there in age and may not need to play as many minutes with DeShawn Stevenson around. I feel like the two will end up cancelling each other out and his stats will look a lot like last year's.

Last year: 9.7 points/3.6 assists/28.9 minutes/84.5 free throw percentage

My projections: 9.1 points/3.4 assists/25 minutes played per game/86% free throw percent

A slight drop in points, but mostly because of a slight drop in minutes from nearly 29 a game down to 25. I think Stevenson will steal some of the crunch time minutes that Daniels dominated last year, depending on the Wizards' opponent. He'll be 31 this year, so as long as he stays healthy, I expect most of his other stats to remain constant. I've heard that AD is in great shape in camp, which could affect his numbers if he can get minutes. Overall, about the same as last year.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Daniels' numbers in each of those categories.

My Fantasy Team

2006-10-29T21:22:00.000-08:00

I'm participating in the Hoops Addict Fantasy Basketball league with other blogs like Yay! Sports, Give Me the Rock, Need4Sheed, Rising Suns, NBA Basketball and Other Unrelatedness, and Celtics Blog. It's an all-points league with 24 owners and 10 players per team. We drafted Sunday morning and this is who I came up with.

Team Gheorghe's Giants

1-17: Tim Duncan
2-32: Rasheed Wallace
3-65: Rafer Alston
4-80: Caron Butler
5-113: Channing Frye
6-128: Kevin Martin
7-161: Al Jefferson
8-176: Devin Harris
9-209: Salim Stoudamire
10-224: Sean May

(Stoudamire has since been dropped and Mikhael Pietrus has been added)

I screwed up by taking too much time on my second and third round picks, as I definetly didn't want Sheed or Alston that early. Other than that, I like my draft. I expect Duncan to have a huge year, and his percentage problems don't exist in this league. I love Butler in the 4th and I love my 6-8 picks of Martin, Jefferson, and Harris. One of those three will be a fantasy stud this year. I just wish I had Jermaine O'Neal and Tony Parker instead of Alston and Sheed.

What do you think of my fantasy team? Keep in mind there are 24 owners.

Community Projection: Gilbert Arenas

2006-10-29T20:02:00.000-08:00

After a hellacious weekend with the computer, I'm back. Apparently, I didn't miss much with the Wizards, as Eddie Jordan still hasn't announced who will start at center for the opener against Cleveland. I've already covered my view on this here and here, but we'll see what EJ does.

In the meantime, we're going to start our community player projections this week. I was hoping to start over the weekend, but couldn't because of obvious reasons. With so little time, I'm going to do multiple ones a day.

We begin with Gilbert Arenas, the only person we can begin with.

(As a quick aside, this profile of Gilbert Arenas is a must-read, as is this reaction by Wizznutzz)

Last season, Arenas improved all his numbers except for his rebounding stats. He went from 25.5 points to 29.3, improved his assists numbers from 5.5 to 6.1, and he shot more free throws per game (10) than ever before.

Last year: 29.3 points/3.5 rebounds/6.1 assists/36% 3 point percentage/10 free throw attempts per game

My projection: 29.7 points/4.0 rebounds/7.2 assists/38% 3 point percentage/12 free throw attempts per game

While Arenas has vowed to score 100 points against Portland and Phoenix, I don't think his scoring will increase that much with Butler's projected emergence. He is still very young, so I see improvement across the board, especially in his assists numbers. If Jarvis Hayes can stay healthy and DeShawn Stevenson can hit those mid-range jumpers, it will mean more assists for Agent Zero. I also see an increase in free throw attempts per game.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Arenas' numbers in each of those categories.

Major Computer Problems are Holding me Back

2006-10-27T14:12:00.000-07:00

My computer has a virus and it's causing me to completely re-install Microsoft XP. Basically, this means I'm probably out of commission until tomorrow at the earliest.

When I come back, we're going to have some real solid Wizards coverage to start the season. Be sure to tune in!

In the meantime, wish me luck with my computer.

-Pradamaster

So Eddie, What's the Rotation?

2006-10-25T21:15:00.001-07:00

[As a sidenote, be sure to check out the must-see Bullets Fever team preview here and here.]

The Wizards closed the preseason with a 110-105 win over the Hawks and a 101-94 loss to the Pistons, meaning that they ended with a 4-4 record.

Interestingly enough, when you look back at the 5 things I said to watch out for, they were either answered very quickly or not answered at all. Stevenson took the shooting guard spot right away. Songaila's injury raises questions about the division of minutes in the frontcourt, we still don't know about defense or Gilbert Arenas, and the mentality really was only a factor early on.

The two biggest stories were ones I didn't anticipate.

First, it sounds like Etan Thomas is going to start over Brendan Haywood at center. At the very least, Thomas appears to have the upper hand after a really strong performance against Detroit. 3 blocked shots in 12 minutes speaks loudly, even if it was the preseason. From what I've observed, it doesn't appear like this is just a message to Haywood anymore. Both players have had pretty good preseasons, so for Thomas to wrestle the job from Haywood, he had to really impress Jordan. From the sound of it, he has done just that.

When I went on the Hoops Addict podcast, I talked about how Thomas may be the key to the season for the Wizards. Of all the guys on the roster, Thomas is the closest thing to the 4/5 athletic center that an up-tempo team really needs. When Haywood is in the game, he slows down the Wizards' offensive sets and isn't all that great in transitioning from defense to the fast break. If Thomas is all the way back to his pre-contract level of 2004, the Wizards will be a significantly better team. He's faster than Haywood, a better rebounder than Haywood, and, from the looks of it, a better defensive center than Haywood. If you ask me, the news that Thomas has earned the starting job is fantastic for Wizards fans.

If Haywood does indeed start on the bench, I wonder whether the Wizards are admitting to themselves that he has wasted their time. Haywood doesn't strike me as the type of player who would want to come off the bench. He doesn't provide the same type of quick spark that Thomas could provide, instead relying on defensive consistency and a stabilizing presence in the middle. Thomas and James Lang's preseasons may indicate that the team is heading in another direction inside. I severely doubt Haywood will be traded--after all, he's the only 7 footer on the team--but he may have reduced minutes.

The one trade I'd like to see happen would be with Memphis. The Grizzlies have long been searching for a traditional big guy in the middle, and they have classic tweenter Stromile Swift stuck behind Gasol (when healthy) and the rest of the frontcourt. Swift is a miscast in Memphis, but his style is perfectly suited for the Wizards up-tempo game. Wouldn't a Haywood for Swift swap make some sense? The problem is salary, but the Wiz could throw in a guy like Calvin Booth or Donnell Taylor to even things up.

Second, and more significantly, the Wizards have had significantly more success with the starters in the game than with the reserves. Preseason games have followed the same type of script. Starters give Wizards the lead, reserves cough up the lead, rinse and repeat. There are two ways of looking at this. One way is to say that it doesn't matter much, because the players on the floor were guys like Donnell Taylor and Andray Blatche, players who aren't a part of the regular rotation anyeay. The other way is to say that it does matter, because injuries and the long season are both going to force these guys into action. I tend to lean closer to the second view.

I'm particularly concerned about Andray Blatche. After a great summer league, he looked lost this preseason. The Wizards let go of Jared Jeffries partly because they believed Blatche could at least help to fill the void. After this preseason, I'm not so sure he's ready to play much at all. Making matters worse is the Songaila injury, which sounds like it could bother him all year. With Songaila out, the Wizards need Blatche even more than before. Up front, the rotation now is Haywood, Thomas, and Michael Ruffin. That's not going to get it done. Blatche was supposed to fill the void, but it appears he's not ready yet.

The lone pleasant surprise deep off the bench has been Roger Mason, a personal favorite of mine back when he played for Montrose Christian and Virginia. Mason's a local boy if you've ever seen one, and it looks like he's making Donnell Taylor expendable. If he can carry over his strong preseason to the regular season, he could even make Jarvis Hayes expendable. He's a strong shooter in rhythm, has international playing experience, and has worked hard to become a better ball-handler. If he can keep this up, it stings the blow of passing on Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo in the draft.

Here's my projected rotation. I'm assuming Mike Hall is the final cut, as he's injured and Mason pretty much makes him redundant. I don't imagine they'll cut James Lang considering the lack of frontcourt depth, so Hall is a pretty logical cut.

PG: Arenas/Daniels/Taylor
SG: Stevenson/Mason
SF: Butler/Hayes/Blatche
PF: Jamison/Songaila/Ruffin
C: Thomas/Haywood/Lang/Booth

Ideally, they'd cut Calvin Booth, but he is under contract. If Songaila wasn't hurt, I'd cut Lang, but with the injury, Hall makes perfect sense. Lang's been good this preseason and if the Wizards decide to trade Haywood, he may end up playing a role.

What's been the biggest story of the Wizards' preseason in your mind? Do you think the Wizards have shown progress in solving their most important questions?

My Wizards Preview is up!

2006-10-25T08:01:00.000-07:00

Check out my Washington Wizards preview for NBA Blog Previews here.

Feel free to discuss it either here or there.

[edit]: It's been a really hectic week with two midterms and such, but now that it's over, I'm going to re-post the entire thing here. Enjoy!

The psyche of a Washington basketball supporter is one that is unlike any other in the NBA. Let’s consider the history. One playoff series win from the end of the Bullets Fever era of 78-79 to 2005. No seasons with more than 45 wins since 1979. 10 different head coaches in the last 10 years. One ridiculous name change. These are just a few of the things that drive a Washington fan crazy.

But it’s not just that the Washington franchise has been in a constant state of mediocrity for the better part of the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s. Unlike their mediocre brethren in the Clippers, the Wizards have always had some sort of a novelty among the league. Consider that former stars like Spencer Haywood, Gus Williams, Moses Malone, Bernard King, Rod Strickland, Mitch Richmond, Charles Oakley, and, of course, Michael Jordan all teased the Bullets/Wizards with their star power at the end of their careers. On top of that, whenever the Wizards got it right with a promising young player, they either got hurt (Chris Webber, Gheorghe Muresan), were traded too early (Manute Bol, Muggsy Bogues, Rasheed Wallace, Webber, Richard Hamilton), or underperformed (Juwan Howard, Calbert Cheaney, Kwame Brown). For years, Washington D.C. was essentially the league’s one-stop shop for aging veterans and underachieving youngsters.

If you ever wonder why the guys at Wizznutzz act like they do, try being a fan of Les Bullez for your entire life.

Why do I bring this all up? Because for the first time in ages, the Wizards actually have a real team that should be taken seriously. Sure, Gilbert Arenas is a strange dude, but the guy can play, and he has a ton of help on the court and in the front office. There’s reason for the hometown faithful to be excited about this team, so while I may not be as crazily optimistic as some of the previews so far, I’ll certainly struggle at times to contain my excitement.

Last Year/Offseason

When we last left the Wizards, they came out on the short end of a compelling six-game series against the Cleveland LeBrons…I mean Cavaliers. This loss followed a season where the Wizards were like the yo-yo in Gilbert Arenas’ head; up again, down again, up again, down again, and back up again. Early-season wins against San Antonio and Detroit were the bookends for a five-game losing streak. After falling to 12-18, the Wiz picked it up and put themselves in a prime position to match their 45 wins from the year before until a late 5 game losing streak pushed them down to 42 wins. You never knew which team was going to show up last year, but you knew they would be fun to watch

In the offseason, the Wizards said goodbye to Jared “The Enigma” Jeffries, letting him go to New York, where he will baffle Isaiah Thomas when healthy. In his place, the Wizards signed Darius Songalia from the Bulls and stole DeShawn Stevenson from the Magic for the league minimum. In the draft, the Wizards took two random guys from Europe who both won’t contribute this season.

The Strength of the Offense

It’s obvious that the Wizards’ strength is on the offensive end of the floor. When you have the highest scoring trio in the league for the second consecutive season, your offense is doing something right. What makes Washington particularly consistent offensively is their ability to get to the free throw line. Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antonio Daniels in particular do such a great job of getting to the charity stripe off the dribble without turning the ball over. This allowed the Wizards to finish sixth in the league in scoring ability despite finish 21st in true shooting percentage.

The great thing about this ability is that it doesn’t go away from night to night. Teams will have games where their jump shots aren’t falling. However, because the Wizards attack the basket so well off the dribble, they will rarely be subjected to off nights offensively.

Making this offense even scarier is the potential return of Jarvis Hayes from knee surgery. Without Hayes, the Wizards had trouble kicking the offense into full throttle unless each of the Big Three had monster games. Hayes adds a new dimension to the attack with his instant offense off the bench. He gives the Wizards a spot-up shooter on the wing that will benefit from Arenas’ penetration. Now, if only he could stay healthy…

The Weakness of the Defense

It’s no secret that the Wizards were poor defensively last year. They ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency last year, a ranking they need to raise about 8-10 spots in order to be a real contender.

It’s very easy to judge based on the Cleveland series that the Wizards need a physical, defensive big man to ever get to the next level. While that certainly was a problem in the playoffs, the reality is that there are bigger problems than that with this defense. Getting a big man like Joel Pryzbilla in free agency would not have been the best way to fix the problem.

The biggest problem was that the Wizards allowed far too many open looks at the basket in games. Had the Cavaliers’ shooters been playing at the top of their games, the result of the series could have been worse. For all of Arenas’ strengths offensively, he tends to drift off his man when he’s defending off the ball, allowing them open shot after open shot. Butler struggled with this problem as well, although he’s a much better on the ball defender than Agent Zero. While they both have been extremely dedicated to improving this in training camp, we have yet to see it translate to actual game play, although Arenas’ insistent to guard LeBron in the teams’ preseason game against Cleveland is certainly a good sign.

The other major weakness was on-the-ball defense. Jeffries was hyped as a great perimeter defender, but his sole value was his versatility rather than his man-to-man defense. Butler is a tough defender, but he lapses a lot of the time. DeShawn Stevenson should help, but on the ball defense remains a significant worry.

The Verdict

Many people have the Wizards pegged for a similar season, with a possible drop out of the playoffs. Naturally, I disagree with those predictions. There are those who wonder aloud whether the defense can ever be decent, and while those are legitimate claims, we need not look further than Dallas last season and Seattle the season before to illustrate that teams can improve their defense without making significant changes to the team’s core. In addition, the Wizards had the point differential of a 46-47 win team last year, and I don’t expect them to be as unlucky again. They’ll win more of those close games this season.

I don’t think the Wizards can contend for the title, but I think they will improve on last season. Stevenson gives the Wizards much-needed toughness on the wing, and Hayes’ return will make the offense even better. If Darius Songaila can come back healthy, the Wizards’ frontcourt will also be deeper than before. Throw in anything from Andray Blatche and a healthy return of Etan Thomas, and the frontcourt suddenly isn’t so shallow anymore.

Finally, I expect Caron Butler to have a monster year this season. It took the Wizards half a year to figure out how to use him effectively, and it was no accident that the Wizards’ 5 game losing streak at the end of the season occurred without Butler in the lineup. If he can stay healthy, he should approach 20 points a game and provide strong perimeter defense. It feels like we’ve been waiting on Butler for ages, but with a starting spot ensured and increased familiarity with Eddie Jordan’s offense, I see Butler finally showing his full potential.

There are certainly concerns, yes. The Wizards still aren’t particularly deep and I am concerned about the frontcourt depth, the defense, and the lack of a pure point guard. In addition, Orlando and their young players scare the crap out of me, and Miami is always the Wizards’ kryptonite. However, in the end I think this team will make the city go crazy with basketball fever for the first time in over a quarter of a century.

Predicted Record: 50-32, fourth seed in the East

[image via Yay! Sports]

Analyzing the Competition

2006-10-23T13:22:00.000-07:00

It's safe to say that few championship teams had a stranger preceeding 12 months than the Miami Heat. After a heartbreaking 7 game loss in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Detroit Pistons in 2005, executive Pat Riley took the unprecedented step of overhauling the team. Gone were Damon Jones, Eddie Jones, Rasual Butler, and Stan Van Gundy (eventually). In their place came Jason Williams, James Posey, Antoine Walker, Gary Payton, and Riley. Experts acknowledged the increased talent level, but wondered aloud why the Heat would blow up a team that was a few points and (arguably) a Dwayne Wade injury away from the finals. After struggling at points through a 52 win season, these experts' opinions seem to be vindicated, especially after a difficult 6 game series against the clearly inferior Chicago Bulls. After getting blown out at home in Game 1 against New Jersey, the Heat suddenly flipped a long-lost switch. Wade showed his superstar quality, the role players finally filled their roles, and the Heat ran all the way to an NBA title, defeating playoff favorites Detroit and Dallas along the way. Now, with the same team back from last year, the Heat have to be considered a threat to repeat their title performance.

Additions: None
Subtractions: None

The Heat are the rare championship team that returns completely intact. Alonzo Mourning re-signed with the team after being wooed by San Antonio, Gary Payton decided to come back for one more year, and Riley, after a long period of deliberation, is back as well. It speaks to the cohesivness of the Heat that none of their players bolted when the money called over the offseason.

Of course, this also speaks to the veteran nature of the team, which is probably going to end up being Miami's Achilles Heel. Other than Wade, who should become an MVP favorite this season, and Udonis Haslem, the core of Miami's team is old. Shaq is going to be 35 this season, and all indications are that he was out of shape entering training camp. Antoine Walker, James Posey, Jason Williams, Mourning, and Payton are all 29 or older. We can't really expect those players to put up career seasons at this point considering their ages.

Ultimately, the regular season doesn't matter much for Miami. They could have sleepwalked to a top 3 finish last year, and considering that their toughest competition, Detroit, lost one of their top players in the offseason, the Heat should not worry about falling out of the top seeds in the East. This is a veteran club, so I'm not too concerned that they will suddenly lose the motivation to win.

But will they win the title? Let's consider their playoff run last year. They benefited from playing a Pistons team that was completely out of gas in order to even get to the NBA Finals. While Miami certainly played well to win that series, the Pistons certainly didn't offer much competition. Had Detroit not fallen into a sudden offensive funk in the playoffs, we may not even be talking about Miami. Then, in the finals, the Heat needed a superhuman effort from Wade, with a little help from the referees, to defeat Dallas. Again, while I'm not saying Miami didn't play well, the result could have been very different in that series.

In the end, I think Miami will have a similar season to last year. Any drop-offs from the veterans should be made up by the continued maturation of Wade. I expect Wade to carry the Heat like LeBron James carried Cleveland last year. The injury to Williams is troublesome, but it may end up giving the Heat more depth than they had come playoff time last year.

However, I don't expect them to win the title. Someone will run circles around them and knock them out in the Eastern Conference Finals or in the NBA Finals. I'd say look elsewhere to find your 2007 NBA Champion.

Projected Record: 53-29

Crazy From the Heat previewed Miami for the NBA Blog Previews and predicts a 54 win season, but he won't go out on a limb and predict a repeat.

Here goes that three letter word again…The one that’ll be synonymous with Miami all season long…A-G-E.

All of us can remember a situation in most any sport where one of the great ones fell victim to “father time”. Obviously it’s one thing to play injured, knowing in the back of your mind that soon enough you’ll be back to form…But it’s another story when you’re facing opposition every single night that’s bigger, quicker, stronger, and last longer.

He goes on to say that he hopes the Heat can use their experience to outsmart their faster opponents once again, but is unsure whether this will actually happen. I'm with him on this concern. I'm not sure Miami will be able to outsmart their opponents in a league that benefits the quicker players more and more each year.

Think I screwed this one up? Let me know. How many wins do you think Miami will have this year?

Back Wednesday with my season preview for the NBA Blog Previews.

Weekend Links

2006-10-22T15:51:00.000-07:00

It's been a busy weekend for me, so it's probably a good time to dump some links on you guys.

The DC Sports Bog has a video of Wizards players showing off the new road unis. We know Gilbert Arenas is not a fan of the new unis, and it appears other members of the blogosphere aren't so high on them either. I think it's really funny how so many Wizards fans are looking to embrace their past in their uniforms. It's not like Washington basketball has a tradition of excellence. Still, I think the uniforms are a little excessive.

Via True Hoop, the official Gilbert Arenas blog. A must read for Wizards fans, as Arenas' "quirkiness" is definitely visible between the lines.

The Basketball Jones dropped their Southeast Division preview podcast earlier in the week, with Dan Steinberg as the Wizards' guest of honor. His prediction is 47 wins. On Wednesday, you'll see if I'm above or below that number.

Speaking of NBA Blog Previews, Impending Firestorm looked at the Hawks and Bobcat Bonfire looked at the Bobcats. Chase obviously read my preview of the Hawks, because he predicts the exact same amount of wins (Just kidding, Chase). Serena from Bobcat Bonfire predicts 42 wins for Charlotte this season, a whopping 16 game improvement.

ClipperBlog and Bench Renaldo rip on Isaiah Thomas for ripping on Greg Anthony.

The Hype reminisces about Dennis Rodman. I have to admit that this entry and this Youtube clip reminded me that there will never be anyone, not even Ron Artest, that is as crazy as Dennis Rodman.

Daily Basketball ranks their top 10 NBA blogs on the net right now. Sadly, Bullets Fever didn't make the list. Also absent were Yay! Sports, The Basketball Jones, Free Darko, and Wizznutzz. Clearly, there is a ton of talented writing out there in the NBA blogosphere.

Finally, I found this video of the team having fun in the airport terminal. The video may center around Jared Jeffries, but the unintentional (and intentional) comedy is pure gold.

How entertaining is Gilbert Arenas' blog?

Blog Preview Roundup

2006-10-20T14:46:00.000-07:00

I've been really slow keeping up with these, which is not a good thing. Initially, I was going to do what lowpost.net has been doing and post a preview along with the one on the NBA Blog Preview site, but it just hasn't worked out. Anyway, a roundup of the latest previews.

Central Division

Chicago Bulls [Blog-A-Bull]: 55-27
Cleveland Cavaliers [Yay! Sports]: 58-24
Detroit Pistons [Detroit Bad Boys]: 55-27
Detroit Pistons [Need4Sheed]: 57-25
Indiana Pacers [Donning Craig Sager's Suit]: 43-39
Milwaukee Bucks [5 Point Bucks]: 44-38

Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets [The Nugg Doctor]: 51-31
Minnesota Timberwolves [I Heart KG]: 42-40
Portland Trailblazers [True Hoop]: 25-30 wins
Seattle Supersonics [Sonics Central]: 45-37
Utah Jazz [Lowpost.net]: 43-39

So here we go. That's 23 bloggers and only 2 losing records predicted. Hardly surprising, but still interesting nonetheless.

Upcoming are the Southeast Teams, and you know who that includes. My preview is dropping next Thursday, so stay tuned for that.

Anything I should keep in mind for my preview? What needs to be mentioned?

As Expected, Songaila's Injury Worse Than We Thought

2006-10-20T13:37:00.000-07:00

The Washington Times is reporting that Darius Songaila could miss up to a month of the regular season with hisback injury that was nagging him prior to the start of training camp. According to John N. Mitchell, Songaila has a pinched nerve in his back suffered at the FIBA World Championships that hasn't gotten better.

Washington Wizards forward Darius Songaila could miss a month or more because of a nagging back injury, according to a source with knowledge of the situation...
The 6-foot-9 Songaila was expected to miss the start of the season. A source said yesterday the Wizards believe he "might be out for a significant block" of time, possibly beyond Thanksgiving.
When asked if Songaila, who was diagnosed with a pinched nerve in his back, would be ready to play when the Wizards opened the season in Cleveland on Nov. 1, the source said, "No way."

As I expected, the injury is worse than everyone thought. I've wondered why Songaila wasn't in there playing at all, because I remembered Ivan Carter reporting on the first day of training camp that the injury wasn't serious. This raises concerns about Songaila, because he doesn't exactly have the reputation as a durable player.

This in particular is very concerning.

The Wizards have been closely monitoring Songaila's rehabilitation. That rehab is not going well, a source said.
The inability to treat the injury has caused concerns that the injury might be more significant than originally thought. Surgery hasn't been discussed, however.
"Every time he gets his treatment he makes progress for a day or two and then he's right back at square one with all the pain," the source said. "The treatment hasn't been working and I expect that they're going to have to try something else on it."

Back injuries should never be treaded lightly, and this injury sounds a lot more serious than initially thought. This is a pretty big loss for the Wizards, because they're right where they were last year in terms of frontcourt depth. Songaila should hopefully get back by Thanksgiving, but in the meantime, Andray Blatche needs to grow up quickly in order to give the Wizards' frontcourt a shot in the arm. Hopefully, Etan Thomas can also continue to play solid minutes until Songaila gets back.

What's your take on the injury? How will it affect the Wizards in the early going?

Gold Jerseys?

2006-10-20T13:01:00.000-07:00

Via the DC Sports Bog, the Wizards are all set to unveil all new gold alternate road jerseys. Here's what they'll look like.

I'm not sure what to think of these, so I'm throwing it out to you guys. By the way, I love the gold "Go All In" slogan in the bottom left corner. Clearly, going all-in requires gold lettering...

What do you think about the new jerseys? Good? Bad? Is gold going to work with this team?

Analyzing the Competition

2006-10-19T23:37:00.000-07:00

The Denver Nuggets entered the 2005/06 season with very high expectations. They closed the previous season on an absolute tear, and with a budding star in Carmelo Anthony and a solid cast of surrounding parts, many expected them to be a dark horse challenger for the NBA title. In the end, they became yet another example of a team over-hyped in the preseason because of a hot finish in the previous year. The Nuggets suffered many injuries and were forced to rely on Carmelo Anthony to save them time after time. Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin each missed 26 games, but surprisingly, the Nuggets didn't seem to miss them much, posting winning records in their absences. Ultimately, the weakness of the Northwest Division allowed the Nuggets to get a division title and the 3 seed, but they were clobbered by the Clippers in 5 games in the first round of the playoffs.

Additions: JR Smith (Trade-Chicago), Joe Smith (Trade-Milwaukee), Yakhouba Diawara (International)
Subtractions: Greg Buckner (FA-Dallas), Ruben Patterson (Trade-Milwaukee), Francisco Elson (FA-San Antonio)

This team could go in a ton of different directions, which makes them so hard to predict. On the one hand, if Carmelo continues to mature, if Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, and Nene stay healthy, if J.R. Smith becomes a star, and if the Nuggets find a way to find a shooter at the deadline, they could be as good as the San Antonio-Phoenix-Dallas trio. However, if Carmelo fails to develop defensively, if Camby misses 26 games again, if Martin continues his feud with George Karl, if Andre Miller goes down, and if J.R. Smith can't step in at the shooting guard, they could find themselves deep in the lottery.

Tired of those run-on sentences. It gets better. Denver's record was ultimately tied to the weakness of the Northwest Division. If Utah can stay healthy, if Seattle's bigs improve, and if Mike James and Randy Foye can complement Kevin Garnett, the Nuggets' road will be even tougher. They could legitimately be first in the division, or they could slip to fourth if everything goes wrong. Anything is possible with this club.

Most experts seem to think that Denver will have a similar year to last year. However, I actually think they will be worse. Denver has the worst front office this side of New York City. It feels like whoever is in charge right now is building the team more like a fantasy club than a real NBA team. The Nuggets have a lot of big names with Melo, K-Mart, Miller, Camby, Nene, and J.R. Smith, but they just don't fit together. Martin and Nene play the same position, Camby keeps getting hurt, and Miller can't shoot, meaning Carmelo has to do it all alone. Those contracts they gave to Nene and Reggie Evans were outrageously stupid. How many teams were really lining up for Nene? Did he really deserve 60 million over 6 years coming off his knee surgery.

The problem, of course, boils down to a lack of shooters. Opponents will just slow down the break, pack it in inside, and make Denver beat them with jumpers. If anything, Denver is an even worse outside shooting team this year. They replaced their best shooter, Greg Buckner, with Smith, a slashing, athletic guard. Getting Smith for nothing was a no-brainer, but they could really have used a shooter along the lines of Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, or Matt Harpring (who would have been a great fit). Right now, all they have is DerMarr Johnson, and they only brought him back reluctantly.

Considering how strange last year was, you never know with this team. But with the bottom of the Western Conference improving, I think it's more likely Denver misses the playoffs than makes it.

Projected Record: 39-43

The Nugg Doctor, the premier Denver Nuggets blogger on the net, previewed Denver's season for the NBA Blog Previews a while back. He predicts a 51-31 record and a second-round playoff appearance.

When you talk about the potential depth of the Nuggets playoff run this season you have to keep a few things in mind. First, The Nuggets are a team that is searching for an identity. They have the talent, the coach, the superstar, and the city of Denver behind them. They know what it takes to make the playoffs from the last three years, but it will be what they have learned from the first round disappointments in those three years that gets them to second round this season. The additions Nuggets management has made should make this team improve, and I think that and the maturation process of Carmelo Anthony should be able to get this team to the second round at least.

I love the Nugg Doctor's blog and his historical glimpses on Hoops Addict, but I have to respectfully disagree with him here. I think this sounds too much like preseason optimism talk. If anything, I think they took a step back this offseason. While they may have improved from a talent perspective, I don't think the pieces fit together. They need shooters and instead locked up two power forwards, traded for another, and brought in an unproven slasher to start on the wing. I don't think those moves improve the team at all.

In the end, our very disagreement proves that Denver is the toughest team to predict in the Association. They could be really good, really bad, or anywhere in between.

Think I screwed this one up? Let me know. How many wins do you see Denver getting this season?

Also see the last "Analyzing the Competition," Chicago.

Gilbert Arenas Is Not Quirky

2006-10-19T21:09:00.000-07:00

I feel like I'm beating a dead horse here, but I wouldn't be a good Wizards blogger if I didn't mention this blog post by Michael Lee on Wizards Insider. Apparently, Gilbert Arenas does not like being called "quirky" and thinks his actions are normal.

"What is quirky?" Arenas asked me, seeking a definition. "Why do people always call me quirky?"

I told Gilbert that "quirky" is a nice way of saying he's special; that people call him quirky because, well, "you're a little different."

"What are you talking about?" Arenas said. "I'm not different!"

Brendan Haywood, sitting about 10 feet away, quickly lifted his head and said, "You are different, Gilbert."

"No I'm not. What makes me different?" he asked.

I tried to come up with all the reasons that I have labeled him quirky and eccentric in my time covering him. Arenas is often painted as a bit of a goofball by those of us in media. I know that I've helped contribute to the quirky label - but so has he. C'mon, Sports Illustrated dubbed him the 'Wizard of Odd' with good reason. I'm embarassed to admit that I never thought that I'd need to prepare myself to have a discussion with Arenas about what makes him weird. I figured some things are universally understood. Sky is to blue as Gilbert Arenas is to quirky.

I kind of covered my take in the comments section of Lee's blog entry, but I think Gilbert really doesn't feel the need to fall under any sort of classification. He's not concerned with his image like so many athletes are, but I also think that he legitimately does get tired of being labeled "quirky." In a perfect world, I think Gilbert Arenas just wants to be classified as "Gilbert Arenas." With that being said, I think that Arenas is a media members' dream, and that he, on some level, understands that.

Most of the complaints are mere frustration, but Arenas makes some interesting points at the end.

I told him that most competitiors don't break stuff in the locker room. Arenas then got defensive about how players get certain reputations in the league. He takes exception the labels that players around the league receive. He asked how certain players are called hotheads for being emotional when they lose, but others are called passionate and fiery - for doing the same things - if they win. I told him that winning is air freshener for you flaws in this league.

"That's not right," Arenas said. "My first few years in the league, I was called a 'hothead.' Now
that I'm winning, I'm 'quirky.' I don't get it."

This complaint is definetly valid, but it's the type of thing that is never going to go away. As Lee says, in the eyes of the sports media world, winning cures all. I can understand Arenas' frustration, however. How would you like going from a "hothead" to being "quirky" or "wierd." It's definetly an odd jump to make.

Overall, I think we need to remember just how young Arenas is. He's going to have some instances where his immaturity shines through. This seems to be one of those instances. Deep down, I think Arenas is a little more insecure than most, considering that he's been doubted at every level of his basketball career. This just seems like another step in his maturity. I think we'll see a return of charismatic, unique Gilbert Arenas very soon.

How exactly would you characterize Gilbert Arenas? If "quirky" isn't the best word, what is?

Point-Counterpoint: The Starting Center

2006-10-18T18:30:00.000-07:00

I'm going to start a feature here called "Point-Counterpoint." I'm going to take a look at a controversial issue regarding the Wizards, present both point of views, and ultimately make a final decision. The cool thing about this, however, is that I’ll have the two sides arguing against each other directly, meaning that we’re really just going inside someone’s head, and since it’s always fun to simulate fake conversations, we’re going to do that in this feature.

The first topic: Who starts at center for the Wizards? Brendan Haywood, or Etan Thomas? Let’s go inside Eddie Jordan’s head. Try to imagine two little fairies of Haywood and Thomas popping up on Jordan’s shoulders if you can.

Eddie Jordan: Who should I start at center this season? Arenas, Butler, Jamison, Stevenson, and who else?

Brendan Haywood fairy: Geez Eddie, the decision’s easy. I’ve started for this team since 2003. I even started for Michael Freaking Jordan! Why is this even a competition?

Etan Thomas fairy:
Wrong you are, Mr. Haywood
Steal your spot on the floor, I could
All your skills are still the same
While I’ve been focusing on my game

BH: Come on Etan, let’s get real here. Since you signed that huge contract, what exactly have you done? You put up 9 and 7 in a contract year, and since then, you’ve been crap.

ET:
Crap, my friend, is the operative word.
Because if you don’t think that’s you, you’re absurd
What have you done in your career?
7 and 6? That’s no reason to cheer

BH: Etan, this team needs a dependable big guy in the middle. I’ve averaged over 70 games a season in my career. You, my friend, have averaged 56 in that same time. In that same period, I’ve had better numbers across the board. I’ve averaged more points, rebounds, and blocks than you have. Need any more advice as to the better player, Eddie?

ET:
The times are changing, my Carolina pal
LeBron’s path to the hoop was as wide as a canal
The days of the 7 foot plodder are all but done
The ones of the athlete have just begun

BH: Look, Eddie, the choice is clear. If we’re going to keep with our prevailing theme of continuity, look no further than our Mr. Stability. That may have been a dumb rhyme, but it’s a statement of truth. I get a bad rep as an overrated crappy center, but how many teams can say they’ve had a consistent 7 footer in the middle? I’m a better defender than you think and I can score much better than Robert Frost over there.

ET:
Don’t make the mistake of listening to him
If he’s in there, our chances are grim
This isn’t your fathers’ plodding team
My style fits in better with our running scheme

Brendan wants to score like David Robinson
But that’ll get us nowhere in the postseason
We have plenty of guys to who can score the rock
So pick me, the athlete, who can actually shotblock

EJ: Could you guys be more annoying? Where’s Peter John Ramos when you need him?

Bullets Fever’s take

After reading Michael Lee's article on Haywood and Jordan's relationship, I can’t help but wonder whether this competition is real or not. Is Jordan keeping this close only to try to light a fire under Haywood? If that’s the case, I’d be really disappointed, because it would mean that Etan Thomas isn’t really all the way back to his 2004 form. Ultimately, Haywood should start, but I want to see Thomas finish more games. Haywood’s not as bad as he’s made out to be, but he’s a halfcourt center that doesn’t fit all that well to the Wizards’ running style. Thomas, while injury prone and inconsistent, is more of the type of player the Wizards should be looking for. He’s undersized, but he’s a great athlete and, most importantly, can be a real enforcer down low. If he can get back to his 2004 form, he, and not Haywood, should get the majority of the minutes at the center spot. Granted, that’s a huge if, but despite the stability of Haywood, Eddie Jordan should try to give Thomas as many chances as possible to gain the starting job.

Who do you think should win the starting center’s job? Can you really trust Etan Thomas to play to his potential?

Yeah, he's really worth 10 million a year...

2006-10-17T11:34:00.000-07:00

Jared Jeffries is out for the beginning of the season with a broken wrist.

Still think the Wizards should have matched the Knicks offer? Unfortunate news for the Knicks, but they're soon going to find out that Jeffries is useless even when healthy. He teases you with his length and athleticism, but he can't score, isn't much of a rebounder, and isn't even all that great a defender. His lone value is his versatility, because he can act as a nice 8th man as a 3 or a 4. That's not good enough to merit a 5 year, 30 million dollar contract (which, because of the luxury tax, is more like 5 years, 60 million).

The Wizards are about 10 times better off with DeShawn Stevenson. I feel bad for Jeffries, but the Knicks are going to realize how inept Jeffries is when Renaldo Balkman takes over his job early on.

Does this injury mean anything at all for the Knicks? How do you feel about swapping Jeffries for Stevenson and Songalia?

[edit]: It's even worse than we thought. They're now saying Jeffries will be out 6-8 weeks. Enjoy your investment, Isaiah Thomas!

Wizards are apparently less sleepy than Bobcats

2006-10-16T21:23:00.000-07:00

The Wizards and the Bobcats played a preseason game at 10 AM (seriously, 10 AM!) this morning, with the Wizards coming out on top 100-91 despite turning the ball over 26 times. Apparently, the two teams needed to play for the local-area Charlotte schools, and the only time that would work was 10 AM. Naturally, I wonder what those kids were doing watching a basketball game at 10 AM instead of being in school, but the question apparently never was considered by the organizers of the game.

Other than Antwan Jamison having a monster game with 22 points, there's not much to report here. Etan Thomas got the start at center, but neither he nor Brendan Haywood played much during the game. Caron Butler had his strongest game of the preseason with 17 points in 18 minutes. Donnell Taylor turned the ball over an astounding 8 times, hurting his quest to earn the backup point guard spot. Gilbert Arenas and Jarvis Hayes didn't play, with Hayes sitting out because of a sprained ankle. Hayes' injured ankle certainly doesn't sound good considering his past history, but I think he'll end up being okay.

Now that 4 games have been played, what's been good and bad at Bullets training camp?

The Good:

-Starting Lineup: As Michael Lee and Ivan Carter note, the Wizards have outscored their opponents by 14 points in the first and third quarter of games, the time when starters are usually on the floor. The Big 3 in particular have had really strong showings this preseason. Gilbert Arenas opened the preseason by dropping 29 in 29 minutes against the Raptors and has been very strong when on the floor. More importantly, the Black President has showed a willingness to improve his defense, as evident by his insistence on guarding LeBron James in the Wizards' win over the Cavs on Friday. Antwan Jamison, featured in this article, had a big game today and seems to be carrying the momentum from his Team USA performance over to the preseason. Caron Butler, when playing, has been a solid third scorer, and has proven to be one of the team's most consistent options. As for newcomer DeShaun Stevenson, wait until the next point.

-The shooting guards: This was point #1 for me on my list of things to watch in the preseason, and the results so far have been more than encouraging. I'm becoming more and more convinced that signing DeShawn Stevenson for the veterans minimum may prove to be the steal of the offseason. Stevenson seems to be exactly what this team needs. With Arenas, Jamison, and Butler providing more than enough scoring on their own, the Wizards didn't need more offense. When Stevenson is out there, he is a tough, physical, lock-down defender in the Bruce Bowen mold, and is a much better fit for this team than Jared Jeffries ever was. He's even shown a solid outside touch, hitting on over 50 percent of his shots in the preseason.

Jarvis Hayes, meanwhile, has also had a big preseason. He nearly led the Wizards to a win over Toronto in the fourth quarter of the preseason opener and has averaged a solid 8 points in only 16 minutes per game. We've been down this path before with Hayes, and every time he seems to gain momentum, he gets hurt or shows inconsistency. With that being said, he's still very young and, if he can stay healthy, he will provide really strong scoring punch off the bench.

With Stevenson blending in easily with the starters and Hayes showing that he could be a potential 6th man candidate, the shooting guard spot, which seemed unsettled entering training camp, has now become a potential strength.

-The defense: Granted, it's preseason, but the Wizards have held each of their opponents below 95 points and 45 percent shooting from the field. That's a good sign no matter how you slice it.

The bad:

-Andray Blatche-Granted, the youngster had a very good game today, shooting 4-7 from the field and scoring 8 points in limited minutes. Prior to today's game, however, Blatche has been struggling. His stats prior to today's game have been ugly to say the least. He's shooting under 20 percent (5-28) from the field, committing turnovers at an ungodly rate (3 per game), and averaging nearly as many fouls (4) as rebounds (5). With the injury to Darius Songalia, the Wizards have given Blatche many opportunities to succeed, but he just hasn't been able to carry over his strong summer league performances to the preseason. Hopefully, today's game can be a turnaround, because he may find himself back in the D-League with more poor performances.

-Darius Songalia-The Wizards' top free agent signing continues to be out of action with his back injury. On the first day of camp, the team expected this to be a day-to-day thing, but here we sit over two weeks later and Songalia is still injured. There's no denying that Songalia's offensive game is tailor-made for Eddie Jordan's system, but unlike fellow newcomer Stevenson, Songalia hasn't gotten the opportunity to get used to the system. If Songalia's back continues to bother him, the Wizards may be forced to play more of Michael Ruffin, who should not ever be playing more than 5 minutes a game. With Blatche's poor preseason and Songalia's injury, the Wizards haven't really had the chance to develop the frontcourt depth they desperately need.

Overall, I'm liking this preseason so far. Despite the problems of Blatche and Songalia, the Wizards are proving to be a much deeper team than they were last year. Gilbert's dedication to defense also is incredibly encouraging, and the starting lineup looks to be clicking already. Barring a serious injury to a top player, the Wizards will enter the 2006/07 season with their best team in 25 years.

Bonus stuff...The NBA Blog Previews keep rolling along. Be sure to check out these awesome previews for Detroit (Need4Sheed and Detroit Bad Boys), Indiana (Donning Craig Sager's Suit), Milwaukee (5 Point Bucks), and Denver (The Nugg Doctor). Each of them predicted an over .500 record for their teams, which, at this point, is hardly shocking to me.....Blog-A-Bull is still in limbo with the decision to accept my wager. I'm eagerly waiting for Matt to stand up for his team and pull the trigger. There's nothing like a little friendly blog rivalry between two fanatic team bloggers. Well, maybe if we were actual professional athletes...

What's your feeling on Bullets training camp thus far?

Analyzing the Competition

2006-10-15T12:35:00.000-07:00

Like Washington, many people expected Chicago to take a step back last year after surprising in 2004/05 with 47 wins. After all, there was something about that Bulls team in 05 that made you wonder how they were so good, compounded by the fact that their expected won-loss record was 44-38. In the offseason, Chicago gave Tyson Chandler lots of money to stay put and traded Eddy Curry to the Knicks for Michael Sweetney, Tim Thomas, and a series of unprotected draft picks. Chicago struggled for most of the year to recapture the magic of 2004/05, and were sitting 9 games under .500 with only 11 left to play. After that, though, Chicago may have been the hottest team in basketball, as they won 10 of those last 11 games to finish 41-41 and get the 7th seed in the playoffs, where they gave Miami all they could handle before falling in six games. After a busy and productive offseason, expectations are sky-high for Chicago this season.

Additions: Ben Wallace (FA-Detroit), P.J. Brown (Trade-New Orleans), Adrian Griffith (FA-Dallas), Victor Khryapa (Trade-Portland), Tyrus Thomas (Draft 1-4), Thabo Sefolosha (Draft 1-13)
Subtractions: Tyson Chandler (Trade-New Orleans), J.R. Smith (Trade-Denver), Darius Songalia (FA-Washington), Eric Piatowski (FA-Phoenix), Janeero Pargo, Othella Harrington

If they gave the Larry O'Brien trophy to the team with the best offseason, the Chicago Bulls certainly would be the winner. They stole the single best free agent on the market from their archrival and found a way to rid themselves of the awful contract of Tyson Chandler. Replacing Chandler for Ben Wallace and 5 million a year is a phenomenal trade. Wallace is on the downside of his career, but he is still able to be a major defensive force when healthy. Most importantly, Chicago didn't kill their cap space, because they found a taker for Tyson Chandler and his 60 million dollar contract. Chandler had a very good season in 04/05, but he regressed last year and messed up Chicago's rhythm with silly fouls on both ends of the court. Replacing him with Wallace and P.J. Brown will make Chicago much better.

The question is, how much better will the Bulls be? Chicago had an expected won-loss record of 43-39 last year, but needed to win 10 of their last 11 to even finish with a .500 record. The ultimate problem with Chicago is that they still have nobody that can score for them unless it's in the framework of their offense. After a really strong rookie year, the Bulls were hoping that Ben Gordon would be that guy, but he averaged 3 fewer points per 40 minutes last year. Despite playing in 7 more minutes than the year before, Gordon barely increased his scoring average and percentages. Kirk Hinrich was solid once again at the point, but his numbers were basically identical to his 04/05 year.

There is good news with the young Bulls, however. Luol Deng improved his numbers from last year, averaging a solid 14.3 points and 6.6 rebounds a game. Andres Nocioni also stepped up his game, averaging 13 points and 6 boards a game. If either can emerge as a reliable and consistent scorer, then the Bulls will have a much more efficient offense.

Based on the Wallace move and the increased depth alone, the Bulls will be better than last year. How much better will hang on the shoulders of Gordon and Deng. If either can emerge as a 20 point scorer, the Bulls will be much better offensively. Otherwise, the Bulls will remain relatively inconsistent, with their performance directly relating to their jump-shooting ability. I see them beating up on the East bottom feeders due to their depth and defensive ability, but struggling against the Clevelands, Miamis, and Detroits of the East. Unless they can pull off a trade to bring in a superstar like Kevin Garnett or Jermaine O'Neal, I see them having a similar record as they did in 05 with the potential to improve even more.

Projected Record: 49-33.

Matt over at Blog-A-Bull previewed the Bulls recently for the NBA Blog Previews and predicts a 55 win season.

Some teams are said to be built for the playoffs. It’s hard to predict whether this new mix of players will be ready for a deep playoff run, but they are definitely built to win a lot of games in the regular season. As you’re likely tired of hearing by now: the Bulls play defense and are deep, two things that can keep them in every game they’ll play. They may have nights when the shots aren’t falling, but there will be very few games when they’re not putting out an effort, meaning they should beat up the lesser teams in the league without fear of playing down to the competition.

I agree that the Bulls are build for the regular season, but I also think they'll struggle against top competition in the East. They'll have one of the league's best records against sub-.500 teams, but I don't see Chicago having a winning record against the top teams in both conferences just yet.

I'm also posing the same challenge to Matt as I did to my roomate. With the Bulls and the Wizards developing into a budding rivalry, and the distinct possibility that they'll end up meeting somewhere along the line in the postseason, who's going to get more regular-season wins? You take Chicago, I'll take the Wizards. Winner gets to have the loser post on their blog as to why the blog's team is so good. What say you, Matt?

Think I screwed this one up? Let me know. How many wins do you see Chicago getting this season?

Other "Analyzing the Competitions" looked at the Hawks, Nets, Knicks, 76ers, and Rockets.