Grizzlies 95, Wizards 80: Shoot Me Now

By running this blog, I realize that I'm supposed to be some sort of quasi-expert on the Washington Wizards team. Granted, I'm not down there with the team, but I do what I can to stay on the beat from afar.

With that being said, I really don't have too many answers for tonight. It was like the anti-Wizards were out there. Instead of Washington driving and getting buckets at the free throw line to compensate for so-so shooting, it was Memphis sloppily driving to the rim and getting a majority of their points from the charity stripe. Looking at the game stats, the only one where Memphis had a clear advantage was in free throws (36 to 15), which is completely uncharacteristic of the Wizards. They were settling for too many midrange jumpers, and while it often seems like this happens every game, the reality is that the Wizards usually have a free throw advantage against their opponents.

Tonight, it simply wasn't happening. The Wizards are your classic rhythm team. If their jumpers are falling, then they can kick their offense into high gear. Teams have to acknowledge the jumper, which opens up the lane for easy buckets. The problem is that if you aren't hitting your jumpers, that lane never opens up.

Speaking of uncharacteristic, I have absolutely no answer as to what was wrong with Gilbert Arenas. All I can say is that he's a rhythm shooter, meaning he is prone to streaks where he's on and where he's off. Usually, however, Arenas can shoot himself out of them, but I guess he never got the chance to do it when he was on the bench in the third and fourth quarters.
That was probably the worst game Arenas has ever played, and he's given no indication that there was anything wrong with him, making it even wierder. He didn't admit that he was restless after sleeping three hours and bouncing around a basketball all night, so I don't know. Perhaps he was spending too much time worrying about blogs.

Ultimately, as much as I tend to advocate Arenas not shooting as much, the reality is that the Wizards need him to consistently score 25+ to win. That doesn't mean the Wizards should be over-reliant on Arenas--after all, Dallas has won 8 in a row and they need Dirk to score 25+ to win--but it just means that Arenas has to bring it every night. Nobody can really win against anyone if their star scores 3 points, and if there is a positive to take away from this, it's that the Wizards did hang around without Arenas and Antawn Jamison playing well. At least Caron Butler finally showed that he can be a monster.

Obviously, it looks bad now, and the Wizards are in big trouble. Judging from some of my comments in the game thread, I'm feeling the pain. Still, there are two good pieces of news. First, the Eastern Conference has been horrendous, which opens the door for a nice Wizards run once they play some Eastern Conference foes. Second, as Gilbert Arenas said to Marc Stein here, this isn't so different than last year.

Q: The last time we spoke, you said you thought the Wiz were about a year and a half away from challenging for the East title. But you guys haven't won a road game yet. How concerned are you with this start?

A: With this team, I'm never worried. I've been with this group for three years now and we've been through worse times. Last year, what did we start, 7-14?

(Editor's note II: It was actually 9-14 and 12-18, but you get his point.)

Hopefully, some home-cooking tomorrow should help heal the wounds. As crazy as it sounds, the Wizards don't need to do anything big to get better. All the parts have been there, just at different times and in different games. If they can simply put it all together, things can get better. I'm not saying they will, but as crazy as it sounds, the Wizards picked the right year to start 4-8 and score in the 80s in four road games.

Still, "The Takeover" needs to start tomorrow. Detroit has to be defeated. There is simply no alternative at this point.

GO WIZ

Postgame thoughts? The floor is open to venting.

Open Thread: Game 12

Regular Season Game 12
Wizards (4-7) at Grizzlies (2-9)
Fed-Ex Forum
8 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

It's a must-win game tonight, as the struggling Wizards take on the even-worse Grizzlies tonight on the road. The Wizards have come close at Cleveland, Orlando, and Houston, but are still searching for their first road win. Tonight should be the best chance, as the Grizzlies are struggling and are among the worst teams in the league.

Grizzlies blogs: The Beale Street Beat

Memphis has really struggled this season after star Pau Gasol went down in the World Championships. Gasol is out until January, forcing the Grizzlies to rely on a lot of unproven youngsters, one of which, Kyle Lowry, is out for tonight and probably much longer.

That's not to say Memphis has not been competitive. They haven't been blown out of any game, with the 13 point loss to Charlotte being their largest margin of defeat. They have close losses to Cleveland, Houston, Dallas, and Sacramento, all of which are pretty good teams. Without Gasol, they've been forced to rely on youngsters like Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick, and Lawrence Roberts and aging veterans like Eddie Jones and Chucky Atkins.

Essentially, the Wizards should win, but I don't think it will be easy. Memphis will hang around long enough to make this a game, and the Wizards can easily be defeated if they let Memphis hang around. The key, once again, will be getting everyone going. Arenas and Butler should be able to explode for a ton of points, but Arenas can't be coming down and jacking up threes every time. On the other side of the ball, the Grizzlies run a disciplined slow-down offense, relying on perimeter shots to succeed. This means the Wizards need to continue to do a good job of fighting through screens and contesting every shot.

Ultimately, I expect a Wizards victory, but it will be closer than you think.

Prediction: Wizards 97, Grizzlies 89

If you're watching or listening, drop a comment with your thoughts.

[editor's note: The Basketball Jones apparently agrees with my prediction, as they've made this game their "Book it!" of the night.]