Rockets 114, Wizards 109: Can I write a check?

When Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison combine for 70 points, it's usually enough to get the Wizards the win. Tonight, however, it simply wasn't the case, as the Wizards fell to the Houston Rockets 114-109 at home.

In the game preview, I suggested that the Wizards let Yao and T-Mac get theirs and focus on stopping the rest of the team. Quite simply, it was a silly suggestion. Yao was unstoppable last night, as he constantly used his size and length to dominate Etan Thomas and the other Wizards centers. When he didn't score, he was fouled, and he hit 12 of 14 from the line. The Wizards had no chance against him last night. Before McGrady left the game with back spasims (be concerned, Rockets fans!), he was dominating on the perimeter with 28 points on 10 of 21 from the field. Finally, even with all of that, the Wizards still allowed 4 other guys to score in double figures. It was simply a dreadful defensive performance.

On the other end, the Big 3 played their game, but nobody else showed up. DeShawn Stevenson was 2 for 9, Etan Thomas 1 for 5, and Antonio Daniels 0 for 1. How in the world is Daniels only shooting one shot? That simply can't happen again. As good as Arenas, Butler, and Jamison are, they need a fourth scorer to do anything.

The defensive performance in particular is somewhat troubling. It's true that no other team has a guy like Yao, and the Wizards simply never have a chance to stop him. However, T-Mac should not be getting 28 points in such a short amount of time. The Wizards surrendered too many open jumpers to Shane Battier, Luther Head, and Juwan Howard. Once again, the Wizards struggled defensively to guard teams that play a half-court style. It happened in Chicago and it happened again last night.



I did see three encouraging signs, however. 38 free throws is really good, even if they gave up 38 to the Rockets. Jamison had a big game yesterday, and his production continues to be a major key for the team. Finally, Eddie opened up the bench, as Roger Mason, Calvin Booth, and even James Lang got into the game yesterday. I've been begging for this the entire season, and it finally seems like Jordan is getting the message. True, Booth and Lang probably only played because of Haywood's injury, but at least Jordan is making the effort.

All in all, it's been 20 games, and the Wizards are 9-11. They've proven they can beat bad teams and even a couple good ones. However, they have to beat good teams at home more consistently to reach the next level. They have two of those types of games next week against Denver and Miami. A sweep of those two teams will signal the Wizards are really back.

Postgame thoughts? What did you take away from the loss?

Open Thread: Game 20

Regular Season Game 20
Rockets (13-6) vs. Wizards (9-10)
Verizon Center
7 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

Previous Matchups: Rockets 86, Wizards 82

Tonight, the Houston Rockets come into town to play the Wizards at 7 PM. A win would put the Wizards back at .500 for the first time since very early in the season.

Houston's a team I really like. They have two big stars and great surrounding role players. The key to their improvement this season has been defensively. Shane Battier has been a revelation on the defensive end all year, and Yao and T-Mac have stepped up their game on the defensive end. The Rockets are coming off games where they've held teams to 63 and 62 points, and they held the Wizards to only 82 points in the first matchup.

Offensively, the Wizards need to guard Tracy McGrady well. He's the one that makes the Rockets go, and he's really improved his offensive playmaking ability. Yao of course is the go-to-guy, but the Wizards have to be careful about doubling him because he's a great passer and will kick it out to open shooters. The Wizards have to make Yao and T-Mac beat them on their own. I would honestly suggest single covering Yao most of the game to take guys like Rafer Alston and Luther Head out of the game.

On the other end, Antawn Jamison remains the key. Last night's game was the first the Wizards won all year when he had under 18 points. The Rockets aren't going to give anything easily, so Jamison, Arenas, and Butler need to attack the tin. If the Rockets win the free throw battle tonight, it's a recipe for disaster.

Rockets Blogs: Rockets Blast, Clutch Fans.

The Wizards are at home, so I like their chances. Battier will probably stick to guarding Caron Butler, leaving Alston on Arenas. The Wizards stunk in the last game against the Rockets, and at home, I expect the offense to be much better. Guarding Yao will be key. He'll get his points, but you can't let him get his assists. The Wizards need to turn Houston into a two-man team to win this one.

Prediction: Wizards 94, Rockets 80

If you're online during the game, give a shout!

Wizards 87, Wizards 82: The Real Problem is Clear

With 4:45 left in the third quarter, Tracy McGrady's three pointer gave Houston a 15 point lead. The Wizards then went on a 26-12 run to pull to within one point at 72-71 with 5:43 left in the fourth quarter. This was probably the best offensive stretch the Wizards have had on this road trip. But a second glance at the play-by-play of the stretch reveals the very problem the Wizards' offense has had.

During the stretch, here are the facts.

Number of Gilbert Arenas shots during the stretch: 3
Number of Gilbert Arenas points during the stretch: 4
Number of Gilbert Arenas shots the rest of the game: 23

In those 11 minutes, Arenas shot only 3 of the Wizards 15 field goals and scored only 4 of the team's 26 points. Yet during this two game road trip, Arenas has jacked up 51 of the team's 159 shots. Nearly one third of the Wizards shots on this road trip so far have come from the hands of Gilbert Arenas. This all despite the fact that the Wizards best offensive stretch on this road trip came when Arenas was shooting the least.

The problem, therefore, is clear. If the Wizards do much better when everyone is involved in the offense, why is Arenas shooting the ball so damn much? Where is that Princeton-style rhythm offense that was so good last season? How the hell are the Wizards supposed to win games scoring only 87 and 82 points?

When most basketball pundits analyzed the Wizards' potential problems this year, chief among them was the defense. Well guess what. The defense is doing quite well. The Wizards held Dallas to 40 percent shooting last night, and they held Houston to 41 percent shooting and only 86 points tonight. DeShawn Stevenson has been really solid on the wing, and Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood have given the Wizards some semblance of an inside presence. All should be good. But instead, all is bad.

The Wizards can't win on the road right now because Arenas is taking matters completely into his own hands. The Wizards are never going to win by going down the court and adopting the Arenas attitude, jacking up the first decent look they get. There are certainly times when Arenas' quick-scoring ability will be instrumental. Hell, he almost brought the Wizards back with that bank three in the final seconds. There is a reason why you can rarely count the Wizards out of any game.

But you can't do this for 48 minutes. If all you're doing is jacking up shots with 18 seconds left on the shot clock, no matter how good the shot is, you're incredibly easy to defend. Opponents have to expend very little energy on defense and can therefore focus on attacking a suspect Wizards offense. It's no wonder the Wizards have had three games in the 80s on the road this season.

Here's what needs to happen on offense. Antwan Jamison has his faults, for sure, but he is an extremely difficult matchup off the dribble and off the ball for any power forwards. Jamison is at his best hitting open threes or driving to the lane. Instead, Jamison is simply jacking up mid-range jumpers and missing them at an alarming rate. It's as if Arenas' disease is rubbing off on Jamison, who had previously been one of the league's most efficient scorers.

More importantly, the Wizards must get Caron Butler going. Butler is such a tough matchup off the dribble. He's strong enough to post up most threes, but has too good of a mid-range jumper to lay off him. If you get too close to him, he can take it to the hole and is among one of the best finishers in the game. Butler is also a monster on the offensive glass, and his rebounding has been awesome so far this year. There is no reason why he should not be getting 18 shots every game.

Finally, Antonio Daniels, when he's in the game, needs to be utalized offensively. He's among the best slashers and finishers out there and has become adept at the mid-range jumper. It seems like every time the Wizards make a comeback, it is a Daniels drive and three-point play that catalyzes it.

When Arenas shoots the ball 26 times a game, that means fewer shots for those 4 players. The Wizards offense functions best when Arenas is Option 1, Butler option 1A, and Jamison option 1B. When Daniels is in the game, he is usually option 3. The four of them played off each other
so well last year, so I really don't understand why suddenly it's become this bad. Arenas doesn't strike me as the kind of player who will suddenly become big-headed, making this all the more worse. Quite simply, this has baffled everyone, including me.

Oh, and one more thing. I don't think this is Eddie Jordan's fault. Sure, he's made a couple questionable substitution patterns, but it's not his fault if these guys have concentration lapses. Ivan Carter, in his latest Washington Post chat, said it best.

Didn't this guy just take this franchise, which hadn't pissed a drop in decades, to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons? Am I missing something here? Who do you want to hire? Sam Mitchell? Flip Saunders after he's fired in Detroit? Isiah Thomas? Larry Brown? Bill Fitch? Leonard Hamilton? Gene Shue? Kevin Loughery?

I agree 100 percent. There's nobody out there better at this point.

Anyway, I've aired my grievances, and I'm sure you have some, so I'll step aside for now and let you guys have the floor. Consider this an open forum for complaints thus far. I realize it's the time of year to be thankful, but I'm sure people have a lot to say.

[editor's note]: The title is actually the number of points the Wizards scored in the last two games, not the actual game score tonight. I realize it's pretty misleading, but I was trying to illustrate how bad the Wizards offense has been. It is pretty confusing though]

Open Thread: Game 11

Regular Season Game 11
Wizards (4-6) vs. Rockets (7-4)
Toyota Center
8:30 PM
CSN and NBA League Pass

Not much time to post. Traveling was tough today and I have limited internet access until Sunday, so I'll post a full recap of Dallas and Houston in tandem tomorrow. Wizards are looking for their first road win, but coming off last night's performance, I don't like their chances. They're going to struggle to deal with Yao more than the Rockets guards are going to struggle with Arenas, even with Kirk Snyder out. Don't be surprised if Houston puts Shane Battier on Agent Zero to bother jump shots.

Rockets Blogs: Clutch Fans, Rockets Blast, Globetrotter

For the Wizards to win, Antwan Jamison and Caron Butler need to help Arenas with scoring. Both have been focusing on other things recently (defense for Jamison, rebounding for Butler), but Arenas needs help with scoring. They also have to stay close with Houston for three quarters, because the Rockets have struggled to finish games this year. Avoid the lapses and runs they've given up in previous road games, and the Wizards have a chance in the fourth quarter to pull this one out.

I still don't see it happening. Houston is rested and Yao is going to have a field day inside.

Prediction: Rockets 108, Wizards 95

If you're watching, feel free to post some thoughts.

Analyzing the Competition

With apologies to Wes at Mavs Moneyball and Thomas at The Beale Street Beat, both of whom recently wrote excellent previews on the Mavericks and Grizzlies respectfully for the NBA Blog Previews series, the team I want to tackle today in the latest of this series is the team that I believe to be one of the most intriguing teams in the NBA right now. That, of course, would be the Houston Rockets.

While everything may have seemingly gone right for the Philadelphia 76ers last season, the very oppostite happened to the 2005/06 Houston Rockets. After Year 1 of the Yao/T-Mac union ended in a difficult 7 game first-round series loss to the Dallas Mavericks in 2004/05, big things were expected from this crew. The Rockets thought they plugged their point guard and power forward roles with Rafaer Alston and Stromile Swift, and were expecting even more from their dymanic duo. Instead, the bottom shockingly fell out. McGrady missed 35 early and late season games with back problems, and Yao missed 25 mid-season games with a foot injury. Swift and Alston did not fit in as expected, and the Rockets were seemingly never playing at full capacity. A slow start doomed the Rockets to a bad finish in the bottom of the Southwest Division, as the team failed to even win one game against a divisional opponent. The bright side was that Yao finally showed his full potential in the last month of the season, giving hope for optimism this year.

Additions: Shane Battier (Trade-Memphis), Bonzi Wells (FA-Sacramento), Vassilis Spanoulis (FA-Greece), Kirk Snyder (Trade-New Orleans)

Subtractions: Stromile Swift (Trade-Memphis), Rudy Gay (Trade-Memphis), David Wesley (FA-Cleveland)

Houston failed to get a point guard to challenge Alston, naturally striking out on Mike James, a player they traded for Alston a mere season ago. However, the rest of the offseason was fairly productive for now. Battier gives them a key role player and defender they desperately needed, albeit at a potential great cost. The late addition of Wells adds a key third scoring option to start or come off the bench, and the acquisitions of Snyder and Spanoulis were solid low-risk signings.

Still, it's easy to wonder whether this team is a legitimate contender. Yao's second-half emergence certainly showed that he is potentially the best center in basketball, but it all happened without McGrady in the lineup. What happens to Yao when T-Mac comes back? And what if T-Mac's back problems continue to bother him? Already, we've seen a shift in McGrady's game, as he's attempted more three-pointers and fewer free throws in the last couple seasons. Will McGrady ever be the same player that he was with Orlando? Finally, with all the talent those two posses, will Rafer Alston ever be able to run Jeff Van Gundy's half-court offense effectively. Alston seems like an odd player to plug in that spot, and while the same could be said for Miami's Jason Williams, Alston did struggle last season.

However, I think there is so much reason for optimism this season for the Rockets. Trading away Rudy Gay may eventually prove to be a collosal blunder, but Battier is exactly what this Rockets team needs. He will shift between the 3 and the 4, providing strong defense and timely three-point shooting, like a glorfied offensive version of Bruce Bowen. Wells, provided his head is in the right place, gives the Rockets a potential dynamite 6th man. Considering the disappointment of this year's offseason, I think Wells will be driven to play at his highest level.

It's entirely possible that Wells and Battier start alongside McGrady in a Jordan-era Chicago Bulls setup. Van Gundy may choose to funnel the offense through McGrady instead of going with a traditional point guard. If that happens, look for Houston to be a real threat next season. McGrady is a good enough passer to utalize Yao effectively, and Battier and Wells will make defenders pay for doubling the big fella. If that doesn't happen, the Rockets need Alston to mirror Jason Williams of the Heat in order to get to the next level.

Another interesting thing to watch is the power forward situation. The Rockets desperately need that Udonis Haslem-type player to do all the little things alongside Yao. Chuck Hayes may be undersized at 6 foot 6, but he was a rebounding machine last year and has the potential to be that guy for Houston. If he can step up his game and take over the starting job from incumbent Juwan Howard, I think this Rockets team has all the elements to compete out West.

If everyone stays healthy, I believe this team will be a force to be reckoned with out West.

Projected Record: 54-28

Rockets Blast previewed the Rockets season for NBA Blog Previews and had this to say re: T-Mac's health.

TMAC says he feels zero pain in his back and is poised and ready to return to an MVP-level of play. His off-season workout routine dropped 15 pounds off his body and strengthened his core muscle groups to better withstand the rigors of an 82 game schedule.

Like Jason Gurney at Lowpost.net, I'm confused as to why McGrady needed to lose 15 pounds, but it seems like he's back healthy again. A healthy T-Mac is one of the league's best players, so the Rockets better hope he is back strong.

Think I screwed this one up? Let me know. How many wins do you think Houston will have this year?

More on the Bullets after tomorrow's preseason opener. Let's see if that preseason optimism will resonate in the Wizards' first preseason game.