Community Projection: Etan Thomas

It's safe to say that last year was a lost year for Etan Thomas. After an injury-filled 2004/05, he never got back on track, falling completely out of the rotation by the end of the year. The Wizards could have really used him in the Cleveland series, but he was so bad by the end of the year that Michael Ruffin was higher in the rotation. In the offseason, however, Thomas shocked everyone by winning the center job from Brendan Haywood and proved it with a strong performance against the Cavaliers.

Last year: 71 games, 15.7 minutes, 4.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.0 blocks

My projection: 70 games, 24.7 minutes, 7.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.7 blocks

Thomas' projected numbers are fairly similar to his 2004 numbers, with only a dip in scoring. I figure that since the team has so many more scorers than they did in 2004, Thomas shouldn't get nearly as many opportunities to score. With that being said, 7 boards in 24 minutes is pretty solid, as is 1.7 blocks. I expect him to be a key part of the squad as long as he's healthy.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Thomas' numbers in each of these categories.

Community Projection: Jarvis Hayes

It seems like it happens every year. Jarvis Hayes starts the year showing lots of promise, displaying strong shooting and instant offense. Then, invariably, Hayes breaks his kneecap and is gone for the rest of the year. His games played has gone down from 70 to 54 to 21 in his three NBA seasons. Hayes actually started many games over Caron Butler last season and played well, but he was lost for the season very early in the year again. This year, the Wizards could really use him back healthy.

Last Season: 21 games, 24.6 minutes, 9.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 36.1 % three-point percentage

My Projection: 62 games, 21.3 minutes, 8.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 39 % three-point percentage

With Stevenson and Antonio Daniels taking up most of the crunch-time minutes on the wing, I expect Hayes to see a slight drop in minutes, thereby leading to less point production. However, this drop in minutes will allow Hayes to play in more games this season. I think it's a little presumptuous to expect Hayes to play a full 82 games, but 62 games seems pretty reasonable to me.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Hayes' numbers in each of those categories.

Community Projection: Antawn Jamison

Last year was quietly one of Jamison's best years, as he set a career high in rebounds while shooting really well from the field. His defense left a lot to be desired, but on the whole, Jamison was a valuable cog for the team. He continued to transition into a perimeter forward, averaging a career high in three-point attempts and nearly averaging a career low in free throw attempts per game. This makes it all the more incredible that Jamison was able to average a career-high in rebounds, and he was only 0.7 rebounds a game away from averaging a double-double.

What's in store this season for Jamison?

Last year: 20.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, 44.2 field goal percentage, 39.7 three point percentage

My Projection: 18.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 46% field goal percentage, 41% three-point percentage

Considering that I'm projected Caron Butler to significantly improve his scoring numbers, I expect Jamison's numbers to drop off. Butler is going to take more shots this year, and while Jamison has never been a player to demand the ball, he will invariably have some of the shots he had last year taken away. I still expect Jamison to have very good percentages, and he will still be a very good rebounder, but I think next year will be the start of a decline in his scoring production.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Jamison's numbers in each of those categories.

Community Projection: DeShawn Stevenson

In Orlando last season, Stevenson was a model of consistency, playing in all 82 games, and averaging 11 points a game. It's probable that the relatively high point total is a factor of playing in 32 minutes per game, a number even I doubt Stevenson will achieve this season. However, with Steveson's defense, he should stay on the floor for quite a while and even play key crunch time minutes.

Last Season: 32.3 minutes, 11.0 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 46% field goal percentage

My Projection: 26.7 minutes, 7.2 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 48% field goal percentage

I don't expect Stevenson to do much scoring on this team. Orlando didn't have too many other options, so Stevenson averaged a solid amount of points in his time there. I don't really expect that to continue, but I think Stevenson will get a ton of open jumpers, which explain my projected jump in field goal percentage. No matter how many points he scores, Stevenson will see plenty of time because of his defense and toughness on the wing.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Stevenson's numbers in each of those categories.

Community Projection: Caron Butler

Butler struggled a bit to start the season, but really came into his own once he was permanently inserted into the starting lineup halfway through the season. Other than Arenas, Butler was arguably the team's most indespendible player, as evidenced by the Wizards' late-season swoon without him in the lineup. He's completely over the thumb injury that bothered him late in the year and is all ready to have a breakout season.

Last Season: 75 games, 17.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.7 steals

My Projection: 79 games, 21.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.1 steals

I've said many times that Caron is going to have a big year, and I think 22, 7, and 2 steals does the trick. Despite being misused for one half of the year and injured for much of the other, Butler put up really good numbers last year. Assuming the thumb problems are behind him, he'll significantly improve on those numbers after a year in the offensive system. With DeShawn Stevenson around, Butler won't have to concentrate as much on defense, which will give him more energy to be a real offensive force.


Now, it's your turn. Predict Butler' numbers in each of those categories.

Community Projection: Antonio Daniels

It's tough to know where I go with Daniels. On the one hand, the first four months of last year were basically a lost cause, so it's hard to base a projection on last year's stats. On the other hand, he's getting up there in age and may not need to play as many minutes with DeShawn Stevenson around. I feel like the two will end up cancelling each other out and his stats will look a lot like last year's.

Last year: 9.7 points/3.6 assists/28.9 minutes/84.5 free throw percentage

My projections: 9.1 points/3.4 assists/25 minutes played per game/86% free throw percent

A slight drop in points, but mostly because of a slight drop in minutes from nearly 29 a game down to 25. I think Stevenson will steal some of the crunch time minutes that Daniels dominated last year, depending on the Wizards' opponent. He'll be 31 this year, so as long as he stays healthy, I expect most of his other stats to remain constant. I've heard that AD is in great shape in camp, which could affect his numbers if he can get minutes. Overall, about the same as last year.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Daniels' numbers in each of those categories.

Community Projection: Gilbert Arenas

After a hellacious weekend with the computer, I'm back. Apparently, I didn't miss much with the Wizards, as Eddie Jordan still hasn't announced who will start at center for the opener against Cleveland. I've already covered my view on this here and here, but we'll see what EJ does.

In the meantime, we're going to start our community player projections this week. I was hoping to start over the weekend, but couldn't because of obvious reasons. With so little time, I'm going to do multiple ones a day.

We begin with Gilbert Arenas, the only person we can begin with.

(As a quick aside, this profile of Gilbert Arenas is a must-read, as is this reaction by Wizznutzz)

Last season, Arenas improved all his numbers except for his rebounding stats. He went from 25.5 points to 29.3, improved his assists numbers from 5.5 to 6.1, and he shot more free throws per game (10) than ever before.

Last year: 29.3 points/3.5 rebounds/6.1 assists/36% 3 point percentage/10 free throw attempts per game

My projection: 29.7 points/4.0 rebounds/7.2 assists/38% 3 point percentage/12 free throw attempts per game

While Arenas has vowed to score 100 points against Portland and Phoenix, I don't think his scoring will increase that much with Butler's projected emergence. He is still very young, so I see improvement across the board, especially in his assists numbers. If Jarvis Hayes can stay healthy and DeShawn Stevenson can hit those mid-range jumpers, it will mean more assists for Agent Zero. I also see an increase in free throw attempts per game.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Arenas' numbers in each of those categories.

So Eddie, What's the Rotation?

[As a sidenote, be sure to check out the must-see Bullets Fever team preview here and here.]

The Wizards closed the preseason with a 110-105 win over the Hawks and a 101-94 loss to the Pistons, meaning that they ended with a 4-4 record.

Interestingly enough, when you look back at the 5 things I said to watch out for, they were either answered very quickly or not answered at all. Stevenson took the shooting guard spot right away. Songaila's injury raises questions about the division of minutes in the frontcourt, we still don't know about defense or Gilbert Arenas, and the mentality really was only a factor early on.

The two biggest stories were ones I didn't anticipate.

First, it sounds like Etan Thomas is going to start over Brendan Haywood at center. At the very least, Thomas appears to have the upper hand after a really strong performance against Detroit. 3 blocked shots in 12 minutes speaks loudly, even if it was the preseason. From what I've observed, it doesn't appear like this is just a message to Haywood anymore. Both players have had pretty good preseasons, so for Thomas to wrestle the job from Haywood, he had to really impress Jordan. From the sound of it, he has done just that.

When I went on the Hoops Addict podcast, I talked about how Thomas may be the key to the season for the Wizards. Of all the guys on the roster, Thomas is the closest thing to the 4/5 athletic center that an up-tempo team really needs. When Haywood is in the game, he slows down the Wizards' offensive sets and isn't all that great in transitioning from defense to the fast break. If Thomas is all the way back to his pre-contract level of 2004, the Wizards will be a significantly better team. He's faster than Haywood, a better rebounder than Haywood, and, from the looks of it, a better defensive center than Haywood. If you ask me, the news that Thomas has earned the starting job is fantastic for Wizards fans.

If Haywood does indeed start on the bench, I wonder whether the Wizards are admitting to themselves that he has wasted their time. Haywood doesn't strike me as the type of player who would want to come off the bench. He doesn't provide the same type of quick spark that Thomas could provide, instead relying on defensive consistency and a stabilizing presence in the middle. Thomas and James Lang's preseasons may indicate that the team is heading in another direction inside. I severely doubt Haywood will be traded--after all, he's the only 7 footer on the team--but he may have reduced minutes.

The one trade I'd like to see happen would be with Memphis. The Grizzlies have long been searching for a traditional big guy in the middle, and they have classic tweenter Stromile Swift stuck behind Gasol (when healthy) and the rest of the frontcourt. Swift is a miscast in Memphis, but his style is perfectly suited for the Wizards up-tempo game. Wouldn't a Haywood for Swift swap make some sense? The problem is salary, but the Wiz could throw in a guy like Calvin Booth or Donnell Taylor to even things up.

Second, and more significantly, the Wizards have had significantly more success with the starters in the game than with the reserves. Preseason games have followed the same type of script. Starters give Wizards the lead, reserves cough up the lead, rinse and repeat. There are two ways of looking at this. One way is to say that it doesn't matter much, because the players on the floor were guys like Donnell Taylor and Andray Blatche, players who aren't a part of the regular rotation anyeay. The other way is to say that it does matter, because injuries and the long season are both going to force these guys into action. I tend to lean closer to the second view.

I'm particularly concerned about Andray Blatche. After a great summer league, he looked lost this preseason. The Wizards let go of Jared Jeffries partly because they believed Blatche could at least help to fill the void. After this preseason, I'm not so sure he's ready to play much at all. Making matters worse is the Songaila injury, which sounds like it could bother him all year. With Songaila out, the Wizards need Blatche even more than before. Up front, the rotation now is Haywood, Thomas, and Michael Ruffin. That's not going to get it done. Blatche was supposed to fill the void, but it appears he's not ready yet.

The lone pleasant surprise deep off the bench has been Roger Mason, a personal favorite of mine back when he played for Montrose Christian and Virginia. Mason's a local boy if you've ever seen one, and it looks like he's making Donnell Taylor expendable. If he can carry over his strong preseason to the regular season, he could even make Jarvis Hayes expendable. He's a strong shooter in rhythm, has international playing experience, and has worked hard to become a better ball-handler. If he can keep this up, it stings the blow of passing on Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo in the draft.

Here's my projected rotation. I'm assuming Mike Hall is the final cut, as he's injured and Mason pretty much makes him redundant. I don't imagine they'll cut James Lang considering the lack of frontcourt depth, so Hall is a pretty logical cut.

PG: Arenas/Daniels/Taylor
SG: Stevenson/Mason
SF: Butler/Hayes/Blatche
PF: Jamison/Songaila/Ruffin
C: Thomas/Haywood/Lang/Booth

Ideally, they'd cut Calvin Booth, but he is under contract. If Songaila wasn't hurt, I'd cut Lang, but with the injury, Hall makes perfect sense. Lang's been good this preseason and if the Wizards decide to trade Haywood, he may end up playing a role.

What's been the biggest story of the Wizards' preseason in your mind? Do you think the Wizards have shown progress in solving their most important questions?

Blog Preview Roundup

I've been really slow keeping up with these, which is not a good thing. Initially, I was going to do what lowpost.net has been doing and post a preview along with the one on the NBA Blog Preview site, but it just hasn't worked out. Anyway, a roundup of the latest previews.

Central Division

Chicago Bulls [Blog-A-Bull]: 55-27
Cleveland Cavaliers [Yay! Sports]: 58-24
Detroit Pistons [Detroit Bad Boys]: 55-27
Detroit Pistons [Need4Sheed]: 57-25
Indiana Pacers [Donning Craig Sager's Suit]: 43-39
Milwaukee Bucks [5 Point Bucks]: 44-38

Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets [The Nugg Doctor]: 51-31
Minnesota Timberwolves [I Heart KG]: 42-40
Portland Trailblazers [True Hoop]: 25-30 wins
Seattle Supersonics [Sonics Central]: 45-37
Utah Jazz [Lowpost.net]: 43-39

So here we go. That's 23 bloggers and only 2 losing records predicted. Hardly surprising, but still interesting nonetheless.

Upcoming are the Southeast Teams, and you know who that includes. My preview is dropping next Thursday, so stay tuned for that.

Anything I should keep in mind for my preview? What needs to be mentioned?

Analyzing the Competition

The Denver Nuggets entered the 2005/06 season with very high expectations. They closed the previous season on an absolute tear, and with a budding star in Carmelo Anthony and a solid cast of surrounding parts, many expected them to be a dark horse challenger for the NBA title. In the end, they became yet another example of a team over-hyped in the preseason because of a hot finish in the previous year. The Nuggets suffered many injuries and were forced to rely on Carmelo Anthony to save them time after time. Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin each missed 26 games, but surprisingly, the Nuggets didn't seem to miss them much, posting winning records in their absences. Ultimately, the weakness of the Northwest Division allowed the Nuggets to get a division title and the 3 seed, but they were clobbered by the Clippers in 5 games in the first round of the playoffs.

Additions: JR Smith (Trade-Chicago), Joe Smith (Trade-Milwaukee), Yakhouba Diawara (International)
Subtractions: Greg Buckner (FA-Dallas), Ruben Patterson (Trade-Milwaukee), Francisco Elson (FA-San Antonio)

This team could go in a ton of different directions, which makes them so hard to predict. On the one hand, if Carmelo continues to mature, if Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, and Nene stay healthy, if J.R. Smith becomes a star, and if the Nuggets find a way to find a shooter at the deadline, they could be as good as the San Antonio-Phoenix-Dallas trio. However, if Carmelo fails to develop defensively, if Camby misses 26 games again, if Martin continues his feud with George Karl, if Andre Miller goes down, and if J.R. Smith can't step in at the shooting guard, they could find themselves deep in the lottery.

Tired of those run-on sentences. It gets better. Denver's record was ultimately tied to the weakness of the Northwest Division. If Utah can stay healthy, if Seattle's bigs improve, and if Mike James and Randy Foye can complement Kevin Garnett, the Nuggets' road will be even tougher. They could legitimately be first in the division, or they could slip to fourth if everything goes wrong. Anything is possible with this club.

Most experts seem to think that Denver will have a similar year to last year. However, I actually think they will be worse. Denver has the worst front office this side of New York City. It feels like whoever is in charge right now is building the team more like a fantasy club than a real NBA team. The Nuggets have a lot of big names with Melo, K-Mart, Miller, Camby, Nene, and J.R. Smith, but they just don't fit together. Martin and Nene play the same position, Camby keeps getting hurt, and Miller can't shoot, meaning Carmelo has to do it all alone. Those contracts they gave to Nene and Reggie Evans were outrageously stupid. How many teams were really lining up for Nene? Did he really deserve 60 million over 6 years coming off his knee surgery.

The problem, of course, boils down to a lack of shooters. Opponents will just slow down the break, pack it in inside, and make Denver beat them with jumpers. If anything, Denver is an even worse outside shooting team this year. They replaced their best shooter, Greg Buckner, with Smith, a slashing, athletic guard. Getting Smith for nothing was a no-brainer, but they could really have used a shooter along the lines of Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, or Matt Harpring (who would have been a great fit). Right now, all they have is DerMarr Johnson, and they only brought him back reluctantly.

Considering how strange last year was, you never know with this team. But with the bottom of the Western Conference improving, I think it's more likely Denver misses the playoffs than makes it.

Projected Record: 39-43

The Nugg Doctor, the premier Denver Nuggets blogger on the net, previewed Denver's season for the NBA Blog Previews a while back. He predicts a 51-31 record and a second-round playoff appearance.

When you talk about the potential depth of the Nuggets playoff run this season you have to keep a few things in mind. First, The Nuggets are a team that is searching for an identity. They have the talent, the coach, the superstar, and the city of Denver behind them. They know what it takes to make the playoffs from the last three years, but it will be what they have learned from the first round disappointments in those three years that gets them to second round this season. The additions Nuggets management has made should make this team improve, and I think that and the maturation process of Carmelo Anthony should be able to get this team to the second round at least.

I love the Nugg Doctor's blog and his historical glimpses on Hoops Addict, but I have to respectfully disagree with him here. I think this sounds too much like preseason optimism talk. If anything, I think they took a step back this offseason. While they may have improved from a talent perspective, I don't think the pieces fit together. They need shooters and instead locked up two power forwards, traded for another, and brought in an unproven slasher to start on the wing. I don't think those moves improve the team at all.

In the end, our very disagreement proves that Denver is the toughest team to predict in the Association. They could be really good, really bad, or anywhere in between.


Think I screwed this one up? Let me know. How many wins do you see Denver getting this season?

Also see the last "Analyzing the Competition," Chicago.

A Quick Blog Preview Roundup

I've been buried in the depths of midterm studying land the past two days, so I feel like it's a good time to update everyone on the NBA Blog Previews project as it stands now.

I've been giving quick links in many of my "Analyzing the Competiton" posts, but now's a good time for a full roundup.

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics [LOY's Place]: 40-42
Boston Celtics [Celtics 17]: 48-34
Boston Celtics [CelticsBlog]: 42-40
New Jersey Nets [NetsDaily]: 51-31
New York Knicks [Bench Renaldo]: 41-41
Philadelphia 76ers [Passion and Pride]: 47-35
Toronto Raptors [Hoops Addict]: 42-40

Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks [Mavs Moneyball]: 59-23
Houston Rockets [Rockets Blast]: ?
Memphis Grizzlies [The Beale Street Beat]: 45-37
New Orleans Hornets [Hornets 24/7]: 48-34
San Antonio Spurs [Pounding the Rock]: 58-24

In case you're keeping score, that's 12 bloggers, 10 winning records, and only one losing record. Hope and optimism clearly are the operative words here. Somehow, I feel like we're probably going to have a lot of disappointed bloggers by the end of the season.

Also, here are links to my "Analyzing the Competition" series:

Atlanta
New Jersey
New York
Philadelphia
Houston

Back tomorrow for the preseason tilt in the Windy City!

Analyzing the Competition

With apologies to Wes at Mavs Moneyball and Thomas at The Beale Street Beat, both of whom recently wrote excellent previews on the Mavericks and Grizzlies respectfully for the NBA Blog Previews series, the team I want to tackle today in the latest of this series is the team that I believe to be one of the most intriguing teams in the NBA right now. That, of course, would be the Houston Rockets.

While everything may have seemingly gone right for the Philadelphia 76ers last season, the very oppostite happened to the 2005/06 Houston Rockets. After Year 1 of the Yao/T-Mac union ended in a difficult 7 game first-round series loss to the Dallas Mavericks in 2004/05, big things were expected from this crew. The Rockets thought they plugged their point guard and power forward roles with Rafaer Alston and Stromile Swift, and were expecting even more from their dymanic duo. Instead, the bottom shockingly fell out. McGrady missed 35 early and late season games with back problems, and Yao missed 25 mid-season games with a foot injury. Swift and Alston did not fit in as expected, and the Rockets were seemingly never playing at full capacity. A slow start doomed the Rockets to a bad finish in the bottom of the Southwest Division, as the team failed to even win one game against a divisional opponent. The bright side was that Yao finally showed his full potential in the last month of the season, giving hope for optimism this year.

Additions: Shane Battier (Trade-Memphis), Bonzi Wells (FA-Sacramento), Vassilis Spanoulis (FA-Greece), Kirk Snyder (Trade-New Orleans)

Subtractions: Stromile Swift (Trade-Memphis), Rudy Gay (Trade-Memphis), David Wesley (FA-Cleveland)

Houston failed to get a point guard to challenge Alston, naturally striking out on Mike James, a player they traded for Alston a mere season ago. However, the rest of the offseason was fairly productive for now. Battier gives them a key role player and defender they desperately needed, albeit at a potential great cost. The late addition of Wells adds a key third scoring option to start or come off the bench, and the acquisitions of Snyder and Spanoulis were solid low-risk signings.

Still, it's easy to wonder whether this team is a legitimate contender. Yao's second-half emergence certainly showed that he is potentially the best center in basketball, but it all happened without McGrady in the lineup. What happens to Yao when T-Mac comes back? And what if T-Mac's back problems continue to bother him? Already, we've seen a shift in McGrady's game, as he's attempted more three-pointers and fewer free throws in the last couple seasons. Will McGrady ever be the same player that he was with Orlando? Finally, with all the talent those two posses, will Rafer Alston ever be able to run Jeff Van Gundy's half-court offense effectively. Alston seems like an odd player to plug in that spot, and while the same could be said for Miami's Jason Williams, Alston did struggle last season.

However, I think there is so much reason for optimism this season for the Rockets. Trading away Rudy Gay may eventually prove to be a collosal blunder, but Battier is exactly what this Rockets team needs. He will shift between the 3 and the 4, providing strong defense and timely three-point shooting, like a glorfied offensive version of Bruce Bowen. Wells, provided his head is in the right place, gives the Rockets a potential dynamite 6th man. Considering the disappointment of this year's offseason, I think Wells will be driven to play at his highest level.

It's entirely possible that Wells and Battier start alongside McGrady in a Jordan-era Chicago Bulls setup. Van Gundy may choose to funnel the offense through McGrady instead of going with a traditional point guard. If that happens, look for Houston to be a real threat next season. McGrady is a good enough passer to utalize Yao effectively, and Battier and Wells will make defenders pay for doubling the big fella. If that doesn't happen, the Rockets need Alston to mirror Jason Williams of the Heat in order to get to the next level.

Another interesting thing to watch is the power forward situation. The Rockets desperately need that Udonis Haslem-type player to do all the little things alongside Yao. Chuck Hayes may be undersized at 6 foot 6, but he was a rebounding machine last year and has the potential to be that guy for Houston. If he can step up his game and take over the starting job from incumbent Juwan Howard, I think this Rockets team has all the elements to compete out West.

If everyone stays healthy, I believe this team will be a force to be reckoned with out West.

Projected Record: 54-28

Rockets Blast previewed the Rockets season for NBA Blog Previews and had this to say re: T-Mac's health.

TMAC says he feels zero pain in his back and is poised and ready to return to an MVP-level of play. His off-season workout routine dropped 15 pounds off his body and strengthened his core muscle groups to better withstand the rigors of an 82 game schedule.

Like Jason Gurney at Lowpost.net, I'm confused as to why McGrady needed to lose 15 pounds, but it seems like he's back healthy again. A healthy T-Mac is one of the league's best players, so the Rockets better hope he is back strong.

Think I screwed this one up? Let me know. How many wins do you think Houston will have this year?

More on the Bullets after tomorrow's preseason opener. Let's see if that preseason optimism will resonate in the Wizards' first preseason game.

Training Camp Thus Far

5 days of Bullets training camp is in the books, so let's take a look at how the things I posted to look out for have played out so far.

1. The shooting guard situation

As mentioned yesterday, the job belongs to DeShawn Stevenson. He has been playing the entire time with the first unit in practice, while Jarvis Hayes has been playing with the second unit. Essentially, this was never an issue.

More interesting, however, is who is going to finish games at the shooting guard spot. In the second half of last season, it was Antonio Daniels who played most of the crunch time minutes alongside Gilbert Arenas. Once the Wizards figured out how to use Daniels, he took off, attacking the basket with vigor while rarely turning the ball over.

Ivan Carter reports today that Daniels looks even better so far at camp.

Antonio Daniels looks lighter, stronger and a whole lot quicker than he did at this time last year. He's also far more comfortable with his role on this team. Remember that at this time last year, Jordan was trying to figure out where to play Daniels and Chucky Atkins. It basically took until January to figure it all out. Antonio also got off to a horrible shooting start and, in my opinion, he began to question himself instead of just playing. Now, he's just playing. He's mainly running the second team at the point guard spot. He attacks the basket like always, makes great decisions in the open court and is a leader. I also like what he's done with his jump shot. Remember how the ball tended to come out flat last year? His shot gave him little margin for error. He's getting more evelation and the ball has better arc on it now. I guess he spent the summer working on rebuilding his J and it shows. I'll talk to him about it for an upcoming story.

At the same time, aren't the Wizards going to desperately need Stevenson's perimeter defense in the fourth quarter this season? One of the reasons Daniels played so much at the end of last year was that Jared Jeffries wasn't able to guard the top 2 guards in the league when it mattered. Now that the Wizards have Stevenson, they are better equipped to play against those top wing players. Seeing as how top scoring guards are relied upon more in the fourth quarter in a close game, wouldn't it make more sense to have a defender in than a scorer like Daniels? It's definetly something to keep an eye on.

Most likely, it will depend on the game. If the Wizards have a lead, look for Stevenson to get more fourth quarter minutes. If the Wizards are behind, Daniels may play more. Either way, the Wizards better hope they can find a consistent solution, because they struggled dividing minutes in the backcourt last year.

2. How will minutes be divided in the frontcourt?

This is probably an incomplete right now. Not only is it too early to tell what the frontcourt rotation will be, but the injury to Darius Songalia complicates things. So far, Andray Blatche has been playing with the second unit in Songalia's spot, but as mentioned the other day, Eddie Jordan is tempering his optimism with the youngster.

The other intersting development is that the center spot is still unresolved. I don't know whether the fact that Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood are still fighting for the job is a testament to Haywood's inefficiency or Thomas' strong play. Was Thomas more dedicated to his fitness and therefore now injury free and effective, or was Haywood particularly lazy this offseason and therefore ineffective? As a fan, I'd hope the answer is closer to the former, but considering the way Haywood has teased everyone for 4 years without improving, it could easily be the latter. Either way, the situation is not resolved, and Carter has been surprisingly silent on the play of Thomas and Haywood thus far.

3. Is the defense really improved?

So far, it appears the Wizards are emphasizing the defense more than they ever had. Surprisingly, though, it has been the perimeter defense rather than the interior defense. Assistant coach Kevin O'Neill has been working very closely with Gilbert, Butler, Jamison, and Daniels on their off the ball defense. Carter has mentioned that the biggest problem Arenas in particular had was that he tended to watch the ball and lose his man through screens and double-teams easily. Carter specifically mentioned the Bulls game where Ben Gordon went off in the fourth quarter from the perimeter.

Essentially, the Wizards are a very similar team to the Dallas Mavericks. They are hoping to improve defense from within. O'Neill is no Avery Johnson, but his presence should mean a better overall defense this season. Hopefully, that also will translate to the interior defense, but it still seems that the Wizards are placing a premium on defense in training camp.

4. The mentality

It's early, but so far, so good. From the very beginning, the Wizards have looked focused and seem to be thinking big. Jordan predicted an Eastern Conference Finals berth before training camp and owner Abe Pollin was impressed with the dedication of the team. Today, Carter mentioned how Arenas in particular was playing with a lot of intensity, even during the scrimmages.

Also, even though it was just a training camp practice, Gilbert wanted to win. Badly. Dude was competing hard every time on both ends of the floor. The same can be said of Butler and Jamison. Coaches have to love that out of their stars.

This is the type of thing that could change with an injury or a bad preseason record, but for now, it appears the Wizards are serious about fulfilling Jordan's expectations. Carter also had this to say.

There is a quiet, unspoken air of confidence about this group that I can't quite put a finger on. It just seems that they know they are going to be good. I didn't have that same feeling last year at this time.

5. Gilbert Arenas

Arenas was his old goofy self on the first day, but since then, he's seemed very focused on improving his game. I'm sure we're going to hear more goofy quotes from Arenas during training camp, but he seems to be serious about improving his deficiencies. That's definetly a good sign.

Overall, the Wizards are having a very good training camp, but it's still early. Let's see how they deal with adversity.

In other news, I recorded an interview about the Wizards with Ryan over at Hoops Addict on his Hoops Addict podcast. Give it a listen and tell me what you think.

What are your impressions of training camp so far?

Analyzing the Competition

One could argue that the Philadelphia 76ers saw everything go right for them and still missed the playoffs. After all, often injured stars Allen Iverson and Chris Webber missed only 17 games between them, with 2 of those coming on Fan Appreciation Night. Saying that, however, would mean you're dismissing various other smaller factors that did not go as well as planned. Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert did not have the breakout seasons everyone expected them to have, and Willie Greene missed nearly the entire season, robbing the Sixers of another perimeter guard. Despite all that, the 76ers were firmly in the playoffs for much of the year, but a late-season swoon saw them fall behind surging Chicago and Milwaukee for the final playoff spot. They were 30-28 after a big win over the Wizards, but finished the year 8-16 and out of the playoffs, depsite Iverson and Webber's heroics. Considering their expected win-loss ratio was more like 35-47, the Sixers were probably simply bound for a bad stretch. It was a dissapointing end to a dissapointing year.

Additions: Alan Henderson (FA-?), Rodney Carney (Draft 1-16), Bobby Jones (Draft 2-37)
Subtractions: John Salmons (FA-Sacramento),

Despite another offseason of loud trade rumors, Allen Iverson is back to lead the charge. Carney and Jones should provide depth, but anytime you're hoping to rely on a mid-level draft pick like Carney to be a potential starter, you are in trouble. Salmons was not a big loss, as his numbers were inflated by his minutes.

Essentially, Philly is bringing back the same team as they did last year. Their only hope for improvements rests in guys like Iguodala, Dalembert, and the rookies. Iverson and Webber have both probably maxed out, and it's likely one or both will miss an extended period of time this season. The Sixers also know what they're getting in Kyle Korver, so they shouldn't expect much improvement with him. Iguodala may be the key. He wasn't terrible last season, but most people were expecting more than 13 points and 6.2 rebounds a game. His rebounding numbers actually went down despite getting more time. Unfortunately for the Sixers, as long as Iverson and Webber are dominating the ball, Iguodala's talents will be wasted. It will take an injury from one of the two stars for Iguodala to reach his full potential.

It would be a godsend if Carney can step in and steal Korver's starting job, but I don't expect it to happen yet. Carney is a little raw offensively and still needs more game-experience. Jones may actually have a better chance of sticking, considering that his strength, perimeter defense, was the Sixers main weakness last year. Still, we're talking about rookies here.

In my opinion, the Sixers are going to be hard-pressed to match last season's 38 wins. Iverson and Webber are likely to miss more time, and the supporting cast is not much better than last year. It's much more likely that they'll fall down to 25 win territory than rise up to the 47 win territory that Passion and Pride predicted. In fact, I say they finish below the Knicks this year.

Projected Record: 27-55

Think I screwed this one up? Let me know. How many wins do you think Philadelphia will have this year?

Analyzing the Competition

The New York Knicks were simply a mess last year. There's no other way around it. After an offseason that saw general manager Isaiah Thomas attempt to mold the Knicks into his image, the Knicks ended up with an overpaid Jerome James, an overrated Quentin Richardson, a similarly overrated Eddy Curry, and a couple unknowns in Channing Frye and David Lee. Thomas also lured Larry Brown away from Detroit to mold this mess into a playoff team. Instead, Brown was probably the worst possible fit for this team. He clashed early and often with franchise point guard Stephon Marbury and kept tinkering the lineup for no apparent reason. The end result was that the Knicks were never able to gain the continuity and cohesiveness necessary to win in the NBA. Making matters worse, Thomas continued to show his incompetence as a general manager, trading valuable assets for the bloated contracts of Steve Francis and Jalen Rose. Those two continued to add to the roster mess, making a bad situation even worse. The end result was a 23 win team that conceivably could have been even worse had there not been that 6 game winning streak in January that generated optimism.

Additions: Jared Jeffries (FA-Washington), Renaldo Balkman (Draft 1-20), Mardy Collins (Draft 1-29)
Subtractions: Jackie Butler (FA-San Antonio), Maurice Taylor (FA-Sacramento)

Notwithstanding the blunders of paying Jared Jeffries the full mid-level exception, drafting Balkman so early in the draft, and letting Butler escape to San Antonio, the Knicks didn't really do much this offseason (note the sarcasm). Still, there were no collosal blunders like trading for Steve Francis or trading multiple unprotected draft picks for Eddy Curry.

Most importantly, though, there is no more Larry Brown. The Knicks remain a mess, but at least the coach that arguably sabotaged the season is gone. Brown played an obscene 42 different lineups last year, which has to be a record. Naturally, if you don't develop a rotation, you're never going to win. Eventually, the team quit on Brown, as they probably should have. Replacing Brown with Isaiah Thomas does not appear like an upgrade, but in this context, it's probably the best thing the Knicks could do.

New York still has a ridiculous logjam on the wing and they still have way too many small forwards. However, one thing they will have is a rotation. Thomas is going to eventually figure out a way to divide minutes more effectively. It won't be easy to do it on the wing, but Thomas will find a way. That alone should cause some improvement, because the Knicks do have talent.

I still don't see New York in the playoffs, however. It will take a while to divide minutes and settle on a rotation, which should doom the Knicks to a slow start. Beyond that, however, who's going to rebound on this team? Eddy Curry has never been a strong rebounder, and Channing Frye posted poor rebounding numbers in college. The Knicks' best hope is that David Lee will emerge as a rebounding machine, but he's never been that type of player either. A team that can't rebound is a team that can't win.

I do expect the Knicks to make a late push for the playoffs once they figure out their rotation, but their slow start should doom them to another season in the lottery.

Projected Record: 34-48

Bench Renaldo took a look at the Knicks yesterday on the NBA Blog Previews and sees an 18 game improvement from the Knicks to 41-41.

If management can stay out of the picture and just let Isiah run the team (wait, hear me out!), they should be alright. Last season, a major distraction was that no one knew who was calling the shots. There was a power struggle between Brown and Thomas from day one, and now that Brown has lost the fight, it's on Thomas to prove that he's the right man for the job (or else James Dolan will have no choice but to can him). Remember, he did a commendable job as coach of the Pacers a few years back (albeit, with a better team).

I wouldn't say Thomas did a "commendable job" when he coached the Pacers, but I do see some improvement. 41-41 is saying a little too much though, if you ask me. Still, be sure to check out Bench Renaldo for some funny NBA coverage.

Think I screwed this one up? Let me know. How many wins do you think New York will have this year?

Analyzing the Competition

Coming into last season, it seemed like so many people were excited about seeing the trio of Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson finally play together. Ultimately, after a 2005 season that saw a key injury to Jefferson and a late-season trade for Carter, the Nets finally got their wish, as Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson missed only 7 games between them. Still, what resulted wasn't the powerhouse that some were expecting. The Nets were extremely inconsistent last year, with a couple long winning streaks masking the rest of the season's mediocre play. The Big 3 plus Nenad Kristic were all very good last season, but the Nets got nothing out of a bench that they worked hard to revamp last offseason. The end result was a team good enough to win the Atlantic Division and knock out a floundering Indiana Pacers team in the first round, but not good enough to seriously challenge any of the top teams in the East, especially the Miami Heat.

Additions: Eddie House (FA-Phoenix), Marcus Williams (Draft 1-22), Josh Boone (Draft 1-23)
Subtractions: Jacque Vaughn (FA-San Antonio), Jeff McInnis (?)

The Nets are in a bit of a tough spot because they don't have enough money to do much to address their deficiencies. They spent a lot of money on their bench last year and it exploded in their face. It would probably be silly to trade any member of their Big 3, so they have to hope that their rookies and youngsters can step it up this season. If Marcus Williams and Antoine Wright can take steps forward and Eddie House can provide mintues, the Big 3 should be able to get some more rest this season.

The dilema for the Nets is that, save for drafting Josh Boone, the frontcourt remains the same. The Nets were so desperate that they re-signed Clifford Robinson, even though he's 100 years old and got himself suspended for 5 games during the most important period of the Nets' season. Nenad Kristic is a rapidly improving player, but other than him, they have nothing inside. When it comes to the playoffs, and the Nets are matched up against a team like Miami, they will have no chance again.

Ultimately, I see the Nets having a really similar season to last year. Their bench should be better, if only because it can't be any worse. In addition, they still play in the Atlantic Division, which is worse than Anna Kornikova's serve (I know, I know, that stunk, but I just fasted for 25 hours). However, I don't expect Kidd, Carter, and Jefferson to be as healthy as they were last year. Ultimately, the two should balance each other out and we'll see a decent, but not great, team.

Projected Record: 47-35.

Nets Daily previewed the Nets today for the NBA Blog Previews and predicts a 51-31 record.

Slight improvement from last year. They won’t have the same slow start (9-12), but they also might not get 388 games (77.6 per) from their starters either.

I think 51 wins is a bit too much, but I agree with the overall analysis. Be sure to check out Nets Daily for great New Jersey Nets coverage.

Think I screwed this one up? Let me know. How many wins do you think New Jersey will have this year?

Analyzing the Competition

Jumping from 13 wins to 26 wins doesn't really seem like much, but the Atlanta Hawks did double their win total from last season. There were lots of positive developments last year. Lost among the sudden emergence of Boris Diaw in Phoenix last year was that Joe Johnson, the man Diaw was traded for, had a really good season. Before the trade, many scoffed that Johnson was simply a decent player in an inflated system, but he proved his critics wrong last year and has become a borderline all-star for the Hawks. His strong play on Team USA should only mean better things for Atlanta. Josh Smith also emerged to a point last year, posting some crazy blocked shot numbers while improving his scoring. Marvin Williams struggled in his first year, but with the trade of Al Harrington, Williams should finally get the minutes he needs to succeed.

Additions: Speedy Claxton (FA-New Orleans), Lorenzen Wright (FA-Memphis), Shelden Williams (Draft 1-5), Solomon Jones (Draft 2-32)

Subtractions: Al Harrington (Trade-Indiana), John Edwards (Trade-Indiana)

The Hawks remind me in a lot of ways of those mid-90s Bullets teams. In spite of their teams' front offices, both clubs have an incredible amount of young talent. At the time, Chris Webber, Juwan Howard, and Rasheed Wallace were three of the best young forwards in the game. The problem was they all played the same position. Likewise, Atlanta has some real talent in Johnson, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, and Shelden Williams, but they all play the same position. It makes for a strange situation.

Both teams had chances to fill their point guard role through the draft. It seems hard to believe now, but the Wizards could have taken Damon Stoudamire instead of Wallace in the 1995 draft (of course, they also could have had Kevin Garnett, but I digress). That type of thing never would have happened, but it's worth thinking about. Atlanta, of course, could have had Chris Paul instead of Marvin Williams. That's definetly a more catastrophic error.

Still, I see Atlanta making more improvements. In 1996, the Bullets went from 21 wins to 39. Veterans Robert Pack and Brent Price manned the point. They weren't a playoff team, but they were pretty close. Atlanta made a shrewd move in signing Speedy Claxton, another veteran who can man the point position. Claxton is no Chris Paul, but he is an upgrade over Tyronn Lue. Lorenzen Wright is going to help at center, and one of the two Williamses should be at least serviceable at power forward. Add in projected improvements from Johnson and Smith and the Hawks should be dangerous. As long as Johnson and Smith stay healthy, the Hawks have too much talent to finish with a win total in the mid 20s.

With shrewder front office moves, however, this could have been a title contender for many years. Like the Bullets of the mid 90s, the Hawks front office made some dumb moves, such as failing to draft Chris Paul or Randy Foye in back-to-back years. In the meantime, however, I think there's too much talent for there not to be improvement. Atlanta was good at staying in games last year, but bad at finishing. This year, I expect to see more wins, but not enough to make the playoffs. Think Bullets circa 1996-97.

Prediction: 37-45, third in the Southeast.

Think I screwed this one up? Let me know. How many wins do you think Atlanta will have this year?

A couple things I forgot...

• Jim over at The Detroit Pistons Today is doing a big Opening Day Fiasco for the beginning of the NBA season and still needs some writers for specific teams. Essentially, he's having one person for each team write a piece previewing the team and previewing the first game they play during the season. If you're a Bulls, Mavericks, Warriors, Pacers, Lakers, Heat, Magic, 76ers, Kings, Spurs, or Sonics fan, be sure to e-mail Jim at bigmaninthepost@aol.com, because those teams are not taken yet.

• Speaking of season previews, I'll be talking Wizards with Ryan McNeil on his Hoops Addict Podcast at some point before the beginning of the season. The actual date is still up in the air, but stay posted.