Rockets 114, Wizards 109: Can I write a check?

When Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison combine for 70 points, it's usually enough to get the Wizards the win. Tonight, however, it simply wasn't the case, as the Wizards fell to the Houston Rockets 114-109 at home.

In the game preview, I suggested that the Wizards let Yao and T-Mac get theirs and focus on stopping the rest of the team. Quite simply, it was a silly suggestion. Yao was unstoppable last night, as he constantly used his size and length to dominate Etan Thomas and the other Wizards centers. When he didn't score, he was fouled, and he hit 12 of 14 from the line. The Wizards had no chance against him last night. Before McGrady left the game with back spasims (be concerned, Rockets fans!), he was dominating on the perimeter with 28 points on 10 of 21 from the field. Finally, even with all of that, the Wizards still allowed 4 other guys to score in double figures. It was simply a dreadful defensive performance.

On the other end, the Big 3 played their game, but nobody else showed up. DeShawn Stevenson was 2 for 9, Etan Thomas 1 for 5, and Antonio Daniels 0 for 1. How in the world is Daniels only shooting one shot? That simply can't happen again. As good as Arenas, Butler, and Jamison are, they need a fourth scorer to do anything.

The defensive performance in particular is somewhat troubling. It's true that no other team has a guy like Yao, and the Wizards simply never have a chance to stop him. However, T-Mac should not be getting 28 points in such a short amount of time. The Wizards surrendered too many open jumpers to Shane Battier, Luther Head, and Juwan Howard. Once again, the Wizards struggled defensively to guard teams that play a half-court style. It happened in Chicago and it happened again last night.



I did see three encouraging signs, however. 38 free throws is really good, even if they gave up 38 to the Rockets. Jamison had a big game yesterday, and his production continues to be a major key for the team. Finally, Eddie opened up the bench, as Roger Mason, Calvin Booth, and even James Lang got into the game yesterday. I've been begging for this the entire season, and it finally seems like Jordan is getting the message. True, Booth and Lang probably only played because of Haywood's injury, but at least Jordan is making the effort.

All in all, it's been 20 games, and the Wizards are 9-11. They've proven they can beat bad teams and even a couple good ones. However, they have to beat good teams at home more consistently to reach the next level. They have two of those types of games next week against Denver and Miami. A sweep of those two teams will signal the Wizards are really back.

Postgame thoughts? What did you take away from the loss?

Open Thread: Game 17

Regular Season Game 17
Mavericks (12-4) vs. Wizards (6-10)
Verizon Center
7 PM
NBA TV and CSN

This would be a great game to have.

The Mavericks, winners of 12 in a row, come into Verizon Center tonight. I’d say a little more about this game, but I think it’s obvious how big a win would be for the Wizards. It also doesn’t help that I’m in the middle of finals week.

On another note, thanks to the commenters that pointed out that Eddie Jordan signed an extension this summer. Total oversight on my part and I can’t believe I forgot about that. It doesn’t mean he can’t get fired, but it makes it unlikely in the first year.

As a clarification, I’m not necessarily saying the Wizards need to fire Eddie Jordan RIGHT NOW. It’s still really early in the season, and the Wizards got off to a similarly bad (12-18) start last year. There’s still a lot of time to turn things around. Instead, my main point was that I’m not sure Eddie is the best guy to get the Wizards to the next level. Eddie’s a fantastic offensive mind, and it’s no coincidence that the Wizards had the top scoring trio in the past two years with different personnel (Butler replacing Hughes last year). His in-game tactics, especially his substitution patterns, can be baffling at times, but I don’t think they’ve played a major role in costing the Wizards more than one game (the Cleveland one) this year. At the end of the day, the players have really struggled with late-game execution. There’s nothing Eddie could do about the team’s inability to score against Houston late in the game, for example. However, it’s clear so far that the defense is no better than last year, and it doesn’t even seem like its getting better. I wrote in my preview that the Wizards needed to get that ranking to 15^th to have a chance at 50 wins. It hasn’t happened so far, and for that reason, the Wizards may need to get someone on the bench (assistant or head coach notwithstanding) that can teach the team the discipline needed to play good defense.

Mavericks Blogs: Mavs Moneyball, Rebel Ballin

As a reminder, if you’re going to the game tonight (especially if you're the one I had a subtle dig at in the post yesterday) send me an e-mail at pradam@brandeis.edu with an eyewitness report. I’ll post it up tomorrow in a separate entry.

Prediction: Wizards 107, Mavericks 105 (I know, but it’s been a long week and I need to have some optimism here)

If you’re online during the game, give a shout!

Bulls 112, Wizards 94: At the risk of sounding like a broken record...

Admittedly, I didn’t follow one second of this game in any way. I guess it’s a good thing that happened.

112 points to the Bulls? Are you serious? The same Bulls that scored 72 points against a mediocre Lakers defense earlier this year? Quite simply, that’s about as bad as it gets.

I actually felt there have been times this season where the Wizards were on the verge of turning a corner defensively. Even on their horrendous recent road trip, they had a couple games where they held teams to around 40 percent from the field. These games coincided with horrendous offensive performances, but you had to think the offense would come around.

Now, the Wizards come back and throw up two defensive performances like this? I really don’t get it. Chicago doesn’t have much offensive talent at all. They rely simply on looking for holes to drive and kick outside for open jumpers. They have nobody who can score consistently in the post, and they have nobody (save for Ben Gordon at times) that can consistently break down a defense off the dribble. As a defense, all you really need to do against the Bulls is adhere to the basic defensive fundamentals of contesting shots, moving your feet, and rotating quickly as a unit.

If the Bulls are shooting 60 percent for the first half and 50 percent for the game, then the Wizards screwed up the most basic defensive elements. It seems like any team can get an open shot on this defense if they just make 3 or 4 passes. This would make sense if the Wizards had a ton of slow plodders on their team, but the only person that really fits this description is Antawn Jamison.

The problem then has to be coaching. I’ve usually been an Eddie Jordan supporter because he’s been the guy to take the Wizards to the playoffs the past two years. But this whole situation feels like the Don Nelson situation in Dallas. Nelson was a fantastic coach and did great things to pull Dallas up from the bottom of the Western Conference, but his teams never played defense and only significantly improved once Avery Johnson took his place. Jordan is a great offensive mind, but I'm not sure he’s the type of guy that can get the Wizards better defensively. Just like Don Nelson ultimately wasn’t the guy to take Dallas to the next level, so to is Jordan not the guy for the Wizards.

What this team really needs is a fiery young hotshot who isn’t afraid to get up in the players’ grill. It’s no secret that the two offensive-minded teams that made great strides in the past two years—Seattle in 05 and Dallas last year—had young fiery coaches in Nate McMillan and Avery Johnson. The Wizards could really use a guy like that who can get in the players' faces and let them know that the team isn't playing to their full potential. Many have said the Wizards could use some toughness in their personnel, but it's much more important to get a tough coach than one tough player. This is what the Wizards really need.

Unfortunately, the coaching market isn’t exactly brimming with these types of guys, so we may just have to hope that the Wizards can get back to where they were at last season. Maybe, when this guy retires, he can then take Jordan’s place.

But coaching change or not, the Wizards clearly need a spark from somewhere. Last year, it was giving Caron Butler more playing time. This year, it might have to be firing Eddie Jordan.

By the way, big stuff is happening with the site soon, so I’m looking to incorporate some eyewitness accounts into the recaps. If you are attending any of the Wizards upcoming home or away games, I’d love it for you to send me an account of your experience at the game to put up on the blog. Even if you're writing in a million different places already, it would be really cool to get an actual eyewitness account on this blog somewhere. E-mail me at pradam@brandeis.edu if you’re planning on attending any future games so we can set this up.

(And yes, I realize this is the same thing the guys over at Blazers Edge do, but I think it's really cool thing.)

Do you think a coaching change is the right move here?

Forget Offense and Defense: The Bench is the Problem!

It seems wierd to say this, but let me be the first to do it.

Darius Songaila's injury and the effect it has had on the Wizards bench is the primary reason why the Wizards are 4-9.

Okay, maybe Songaila himself isn't the only culprit. Gilbert Arenas has been hot and cold all year. Antawn Jamison's shot has deserted him. The two have been inconsistent all year, and the overall defensive effort still needs some work.

Still, the injury to Songaila, while not playing a major role on its own, has exposed the Wizards absolute lack of a bench. It is my firm belief that this problem has caused all the other problems and needs to be fixed.

Commenter Mel Turpin had this to say.

One of the biggest problems with this team is a total lack of any fire power off the bench. Good teams in the NBA get thirty or forty points per game from their bench. The Wizards are lucky to get ten points.

I'd agree with the sentiment of the statement, but I'd slightly amend the meat of it. A bench doesn't necessarily need to provide scoring, and between Antonio Daniels and Jarvis Hayes, they usually get 10 points most games. What is necessary from a bench is a spark; a player who can play 20-25 minutes and potentially provide the necessary offense, defense, rebounding, or playmaking necessary to win a game. In lieu of one player, many teams like Dallas and San Antonio rely on a lot of bench guys to be successful.

Either way, you have to have one or the other to be a successful team. San Antonio makes up for the lack of star power with a ton of options, including Brent Barry, Michael Finley, Fabricio Oberto, Francisco Elson, and Beno Udrih. Dallas is very much the same way, but they also have a potential impact player in Jerry Stackhouse. Phoenix relies on the offensive spark of Leandro Barbosa off the bench to win games for them. The Lakers are at least two deep at every position, and Orlando often gets more production out of bench players like Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling than their starters. Even Utah gets a lot of intangible qualities out of guys like Matt Harpring, Ronnie Brewer, and Paul Millsap, and this change has arguably been one of the catalysts to their sudden improvement. Good teams therefore either need to have one of their best players come off the bench (like Barbosa, Harpring, and Mike Miller on Memphis last year ) or have a multitute of options so that someone invariably emerges every night (the Dallas-San Antonio-LA Lakers strategy).

This is ultimately where the Wizards have failed this year. The offense and defense have struggled, but I think it's all tied back to the bench. Only 7 players on the Wizards have a PER (player efficiency rating) over 10. The Hawks, Nets, Heat, Bobcats, and Sonics are the only teams that have a similar lack of efficiency from their bench.

The Wizards bench can basically be summed up as follows.

• Antonio Daniels: Nice player, a personal favorite, but best suited to being a 7th man. Probably isn't good enough to start on a playoff team. If there were 3 players as good as Daniels on this bench, it would be a solid unit, but there isn't.
• Brendan Haywood: Pretty solid backup center, but way too inconsistent to provide a spark every night.
• Jarvis Hayes: Has been really bad this year, with a PER under 9. He takes too many shots and doesn't make enough of them.
  
• Michael Ruffin: No offensive ability, pretty poor defensive ability, average rebounder, commits tons of fouls, and the team's +/- with him on the floor stinks.
• Calvin Booth: Michael Ruffin, but with slightly more defensive skills and worse rebounding skills.
• Roger Mason, Donnell Taylor, Andray Blatche: Unproven.

With this cast of characters, the Wizards' bench fulfills neither requirement presented above. There are no consistent impact players on the bench, and there isn't enough depth to ensure that the team will get something out of this unit no matter what. Daniels comes closest to being an impact player, but he doesn't really add a new dimension to the team game like Barbosa, Millsap, Ben Gordon, or Jerry Stackhouse do. Haywood is a decent backup center who would be a real asset if the bench was deeper. Hayes and Ruffin receive too many minutes, and nobody else really plays much.

Coming into the season, this wasn't expected to be a problem. At the end of last year, a lack of a bench really killed the Wizards, and Ernie Grunfeld went seeing a remedy to the problem. Songaila and Stevenson were brought in, and combined with the continued maturation of Blatche and the healthy return of Hayes and Etan Thomas, the Wizards were all set to be two-deep at every position. Songaila in particular was a particularly good pickup; he probably would have averaged a solid 10 points and 7 rebounds a game in this system. He would have been a versatile impact player off the bench for the Wizards all year and would have singlehandily significantly upgraded a sore weakness for the Wizards.

Then, Songaila got hurt and threw everything off. Injuries happen, and I'm not blaming the Wizards season on an unfortunate event. But the Wizards have dealt with this setback horribly thus far this season, as Eddie Jordan's shortening of the rotation have put too much strain on the starters all season, which has caused them to press and be prone to spells of inconsistency.

Entering the season, a great point of comparison for the Wizards in terms of their benches were the Sacramento Kings. The biggest knock on Sacramento entering the season was their lack of depth, made possible by a bench that seemed to only include Kenny Thomas and John Salmons. Any injury to their top seven would have potentially killed them. As John Hollinger said:

The Kings are so lacking off the bench, with their best reserve a year ago ([Kevin] Martin) now forced to start. The frontcourt has obvious weaknesses, but the backcourt is no picnic either -- just to have a decent seven-man rotation would require either [John] Salmons or [Francisco] Garcia to play much better than a year ago, or [Quincy] Douby to hit the ground running.

So far this season, the Kings have suffered a loss from one of their top 7 (Brad Miller) and survived okay. Instead of shortening his rotation, coach Eric Musselman lengthened it, giving extended looks to youngsters such as Salmons, Garcia, and Ronnie Price and old relics like Corloss Williamson. The end result is that Williamson has experienced a revival and Price has emerged as a solid backup guard, thereby giving Sacramento more sources for the spark they desperately need. What was once a putrid bench is now a solid one now that Miller has returned to the lineup.

For the Wizards to improve and snap out of their slump, they need to develop the same type of bench Sacramento did when they lost Miller. Eddie Jordan needs to play the young guys more so they can gain experience where they can be potential sparks off the bench for the rest of the season. Instead of playing Michael Ruffin 8 minutes, why not play Andray Blatche? The kid is still raw, but the only way he will significantly improve is if he gets more playing time. Instead of playing the Big 3 over 37 minutes a game each, why not cut their time down to the 35 minute range and give the remaining minutes to Roger Mason and Donnell Taylor? Mason impressed Jordan in camp, but he barely even gets a look now. If he's not going to play, I don't see any reason to have him on the team.

Here's the current average minutes breakdown of the team, rounding up the decimals.

Jamison: 39
Arenas: 38
Butler: 37
Stevenson: 27
Daniels: 27
Thomas: 22
Haywood: 18
Hayes: 16
Ruffin: 8
Blatche: 7
Booth: 6
Taylor: 5
Mason: 5

Here's what I would propose until Songaila comes back.

Arenas: 38
Butler: 36
Jamison: 33
Stevenson: 27
Daniels: 25
Thomas: 22
Haywood: 20
Hayes: 12
Blatche: 12
Mason: 10
Booth: 8
Taylor: 7
Ruffin: 5

In each situation, the total minutes are the same, but the three youngsters, along with Haywood and Booth, see a hike in their minutes. To compensate, Jamison sees his MPG drop by 6 and Ruffin and Hayes see much less of the court than before.

More minutes for the youngsters is the key to improving this team. The Big 3 are currently forced to do too much, and when they're having a bad game, the team suffers significantly. The Wizards need to develop a decent bench, or else their fortunes will continued to be tied to Gilbert Arenas' shooting. The only way to do this is to give Blatche, Mason, and Taylor more playing time in the hope that someone can emerge as a decent threat, a la Ronnie Price. Only then will the Wizards make that jump into the East's upper eschelon.

Wizards 87, Wizards 82: The Real Problem is Clear

With 4:45 left in the third quarter, Tracy McGrady's three pointer gave Houston a 15 point lead. The Wizards then went on a 26-12 run to pull to within one point at 72-71 with 5:43 left in the fourth quarter. This was probably the best offensive stretch the Wizards have had on this road trip. But a second glance at the play-by-play of the stretch reveals the very problem the Wizards' offense has had.

During the stretch, here are the facts.

Number of Gilbert Arenas shots during the stretch: 3
Number of Gilbert Arenas points during the stretch: 4
Number of Gilbert Arenas shots the rest of the game: 23

In those 11 minutes, Arenas shot only 3 of the Wizards 15 field goals and scored only 4 of the team's 26 points. Yet during this two game road trip, Arenas has jacked up 51 of the team's 159 shots. Nearly one third of the Wizards shots on this road trip so far have come from the hands of Gilbert Arenas. This all despite the fact that the Wizards best offensive stretch on this road trip came when Arenas was shooting the least.

The problem, therefore, is clear. If the Wizards do much better when everyone is involved in the offense, why is Arenas shooting the ball so damn much? Where is that Princeton-style rhythm offense that was so good last season? How the hell are the Wizards supposed to win games scoring only 87 and 82 points?

When most basketball pundits analyzed the Wizards' potential problems this year, chief among them was the defense. Well guess what. The defense is doing quite well. The Wizards held Dallas to 40 percent shooting last night, and they held Houston to 41 percent shooting and only 86 points tonight. DeShawn Stevenson has been really solid on the wing, and Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood have given the Wizards some semblance of an inside presence. All should be good. But instead, all is bad.

The Wizards can't win on the road right now because Arenas is taking matters completely into his own hands. The Wizards are never going to win by going down the court and adopting the Arenas attitude, jacking up the first decent look they get. There are certainly times when Arenas' quick-scoring ability will be instrumental. Hell, he almost brought the Wizards back with that bank three in the final seconds. There is a reason why you can rarely count the Wizards out of any game.

But you can't do this for 48 minutes. If all you're doing is jacking up shots with 18 seconds left on the shot clock, no matter how good the shot is, you're incredibly easy to defend. Opponents have to expend very little energy on defense and can therefore focus on attacking a suspect Wizards offense. It's no wonder the Wizards have had three games in the 80s on the road this season.

Here's what needs to happen on offense. Antwan Jamison has his faults, for sure, but he is an extremely difficult matchup off the dribble and off the ball for any power forwards. Jamison is at his best hitting open threes or driving to the lane. Instead, Jamison is simply jacking up mid-range jumpers and missing them at an alarming rate. It's as if Arenas' disease is rubbing off on Jamison, who had previously been one of the league's most efficient scorers.

More importantly, the Wizards must get Caron Butler going. Butler is such a tough matchup off the dribble. He's strong enough to post up most threes, but has too good of a mid-range jumper to lay off him. If you get too close to him, he can take it to the hole and is among one of the best finishers in the game. Butler is also a monster on the offensive glass, and his rebounding has been awesome so far this year. There is no reason why he should not be getting 18 shots every game.

Finally, Antonio Daniels, when he's in the game, needs to be utalized offensively. He's among the best slashers and finishers out there and has become adept at the mid-range jumper. It seems like every time the Wizards make a comeback, it is a Daniels drive and three-point play that catalyzes it.

When Arenas shoots the ball 26 times a game, that means fewer shots for those 4 players. The Wizards offense functions best when Arenas is Option 1, Butler option 1A, and Jamison option 1B. When Daniels is in the game, he is usually option 3. The four of them played off each other
so well last year, so I really don't understand why suddenly it's become this bad. Arenas doesn't strike me as the kind of player who will suddenly become big-headed, making this all the more worse. Quite simply, this has baffled everyone, including me.

Oh, and one more thing. I don't think this is Eddie Jordan's fault. Sure, he's made a couple questionable substitution patterns, but it's not his fault if these guys have concentration lapses. Ivan Carter, in his latest Washington Post chat, said it best.

Didn't this guy just take this franchise, which hadn't pissed a drop in decades, to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons? Am I missing something here? Who do you want to hire? Sam Mitchell? Flip Saunders after he's fired in Detroit? Isiah Thomas? Larry Brown? Bill Fitch? Leonard Hamilton? Gene Shue? Kevin Loughery?

I agree 100 percent. There's nobody out there better at this point.

Anyway, I've aired my grievances, and I'm sure you have some, so I'll step aside for now and let you guys have the floor. Consider this an open forum for complaints thus far. I realize it's the time of year to be thankful, but I'm sure people have a lot to say.

[editor's note]: The title is actually the number of points the Wizards scored in the last two games, not the actual game score tonight. I realize it's pretty misleading, but I was trying to illustrate how bad the Wizards offense has been. It is pretty confusing though]

Eddie Jordan Trying to Lose Weight

From the DC Sports Bog comes this video of Eddie Jordan running shirtless on a treadmill while talking to reporters.



Hillareous? Pointless? What's the reaction?

Second Guessing the Crunch Time Lineup

Yesterday, the Wizards, who struggled last year with finishing and winning the close games, whipped out a crunch-time lineup of Arenas, Daniels, Hayes, Butler, and Jamison.

Yeah, that's right. A lineup featuring four guards and a forward who plays like one. The lineup is interesting, to say the least. Wierder was that Hayes was the one that drew the LeBron assignment for much of the fourth quarter until they switched Butler back on him in the last two minutes. Not only that, but the ball was not in Arenas' or Butler's hands with the game on the line. Hayes had an open shot, but why was he even coming off that screen in the first place?

Even the Phoenix Suns would have said the Wizards went small last night. It's no wonder that Varejao was ever to get those two big rebounds and loose balls at the end of the game.

Reader Brett had this to say about the lineup.

I was disappointed to see newly minted starting C Thomas and newly acquired defensive stopper Stevenson on the pine down the stretch. After the 2 minute mark, there were 2 field goals made, both by Cleveland. One an uncontested dunk by Hughes and the other an uncontested lay-up by James. With the game on the line, our role players are forced to put up jumpers (Jarvis) while their stars are waltzing down the lane.

I agree with him to a point. I wouldn't have put Stevenson in there last night. The Wizards were down and it was only because of Antonio Daniels' aggressivness that they even got back in the game. I don't know what would have happened if Stevenson was in there instead of him. But I completely agree about Thomas. Why was Hayes in there instead of him? Thomas was tearing it up when he was in there, so why take him out for the trigger-happy Hayes? With Arenas, Jamison, and Butler, along with Daniels, you have plenty of scoring already. I realize Thomas is undersized, but he's going to get those loose balls that Varejao got yesterday. He'll also make it a little more difficult for Cleveland to get to the rim. I just never really understood what Hayes added to the attack by being out there.

I've scanned the Post for answers to this question and Ivan Carter never pulled the trigger, or at least never mentioned it in the beat article. I'd like to know whether he brought the crunch-time lineup with Jordan and what Jordan's response was. Why was Hayes in there when Thomas was playing so well? It's true that Washington was causing matchup problems with 5 perimeter players, but they are still causing matchup problem with Arenas, Butler, Daniels, and Jamison in there. I'd like to know where Jordan was coming from with that decision.

The Wizards struggled at the end of games last year, turning what should have been a 46 win season into a 42 win one. They lost to the Cavaliers in the playoffs last year mostly because they couldn't execute down the stretch. I realize most teams don't have a guy like LeBron who can completely break down a defense at the end of games, but the Wizards made it easier for him and Hughes by leaving Thomas out of the game.

Agree? Disagree? What should be the crunch-time lineup if last night's one isn't?

[update]: Carter disagrees with me. Here's what he said in his blog entry.

I did like the smaller lineup that consisted of Arenas, Butler, Hayes, Jamison and Daniels however. They were getting drive and kicks and creating good shots. The fellas just missed too many open looks. Jarvis had those two baseline J's and the three that would have given the Wiz a lead, and Jamison missed that open three at the buzzer.

Interesting...

[update 2]: Apparently, Eddie Jordan does too.

"Frankly, I thought the small lineup helped us," Jordan said. "I thought we defended [LeBron] James well enough. I thought we did some good things defensively. We got some steals. I think we were down 11 and we went to the small lineup and went up by two. When we had the big guys in there, they would run pick-and-rolls and our big guys were on the perimeter anyway. All the time, you said our small and midsize guys have to rebound the ball better and we didn't do it."

It's Official: Thomas to Start Opening Night

Raise your hand if you saw this one coming.

After ending the season out of the Wizards' rotation for their playoff series with Cleveland, Etan Thomas has officially been named the starting center over incumbent Brendan Haywood for the season's opener.

To say this was a shock is definetly an understatement.

This presents an interesting situation for Haywood. Les Bullez says that it's about time to get Haywood out of there.

Maybe Haywood just isn’t that good and with 4 scorers on the floor, they need defense and rebounding and not a 7 footer who loves to take fadeaway jumpers.

Haywood has struggled because he doesn't really fit the Wizards' new up-tempo style. When he played alongside Michael Jordan, Haywood was perfect because all he had to do was focus on rebounding and defense in the half-court. As long as he took up space, it made Jordan's job easier. Now, however, he tends to bog down the Wizards' high-octane attack, especially offensively. He hasn't really developed a good post game and doesn't run the floor as well as he should.

At the same time, Haywood's defensive ability is significantly underrated. His length frustrates many centers, particularly Zydrunas Ilgauskas, he of the Wizards' Game 1 opponent. As a defensive rebounder, Haywood is pretty decent as long as he maintains concentration. The problem, once again, is that he just doesn't fit into the Wizards' style.

In Haywood's defense (I guess), reader and brother Josh offers this comment.

did you hear etan has been named starting center? I don't like it, he's better suited coming off the bench a junkyard

I'm guessing that if Josh were to elaborate, he'd point to Etan's durability issues since he signed the big contract in 2004. More specifically, I think he'd also say that Thomas is best suited as a change-of-pace guy— a junkyard dog type who comes in during spurts and gives the Wizards energy and tenacity up front. The argument is that if you start Thomas, you lose some of the spark and raise the issue of durability. I feel like this is true, but I also think Thomas is more durable than it seems. He missed half of 2005, but has played in at least 67 games in every other year. Last season, he just simply wasn't good enough to get a regular rotation spot. From what I've been reading, it appears like he actually earned the job, showing that he's probably playing at his highest level in years. Essentially, Thomas' size is a much bigger issue than his lack of durability.

Ultimately, Eddie Jordan's decision culminates two years of washing away the Michael Jordan era and ushering in a whole new type of team. Haywood was the last relic of that team, and now that Thomas is starting, his role will be reduced. I still think the Wizards should hold onto Haywood for his size, but I'd give most of the minutes to Thomas. I'm a little worried about how Haywood will respond to being a reserve, but considering both guys should see the court plenty, I would be disappointed if he continues to hold a grudge. There's really no reason to trade him, as he's a 7 footer that has an affordable salary. I just hope his attitude will be better than in the past.

What's your take on the announcement? Is Thomas really a better option than Haywood?

So Eddie, What's the Rotation?

[As a sidenote, be sure to check out the must-see Bullets Fever team preview here and here.]

The Wizards closed the preseason with a 110-105 win over the Hawks and a 101-94 loss to the Pistons, meaning that they ended with a 4-4 record.

Interestingly enough, when you look back at the 5 things I said to watch out for, they were either answered very quickly or not answered at all. Stevenson took the shooting guard spot right away. Songaila's injury raises questions about the division of minutes in the frontcourt, we still don't know about defense or Gilbert Arenas, and the mentality really was only a factor early on.

The two biggest stories were ones I didn't anticipate.

First, it sounds like Etan Thomas is going to start over Brendan Haywood at center. At the very least, Thomas appears to have the upper hand after a really strong performance against Detroit. 3 blocked shots in 12 minutes speaks loudly, even if it was the preseason. From what I've observed, it doesn't appear like this is just a message to Haywood anymore. Both players have had pretty good preseasons, so for Thomas to wrestle the job from Haywood, he had to really impress Jordan. From the sound of it, he has done just that.

When I went on the Hoops Addict podcast, I talked about how Thomas may be the key to the season for the Wizards. Of all the guys on the roster, Thomas is the closest thing to the 4/5 athletic center that an up-tempo team really needs. When Haywood is in the game, he slows down the Wizards' offensive sets and isn't all that great in transitioning from defense to the fast break. If Thomas is all the way back to his pre-contract level of 2004, the Wizards will be a significantly better team. He's faster than Haywood, a better rebounder than Haywood, and, from the looks of it, a better defensive center than Haywood. If you ask me, the news that Thomas has earned the starting job is fantastic for Wizards fans.

If Haywood does indeed start on the bench, I wonder whether the Wizards are admitting to themselves that he has wasted their time. Haywood doesn't strike me as the type of player who would want to come off the bench. He doesn't provide the same type of quick spark that Thomas could provide, instead relying on defensive consistency and a stabilizing presence in the middle. Thomas and James Lang's preseasons may indicate that the team is heading in another direction inside. I severely doubt Haywood will be traded--after all, he's the only 7 footer on the team--but he may have reduced minutes.

The one trade I'd like to see happen would be with Memphis. The Grizzlies have long been searching for a traditional big guy in the middle, and they have classic tweenter Stromile Swift stuck behind Gasol (when healthy) and the rest of the frontcourt. Swift is a miscast in Memphis, but his style is perfectly suited for the Wizards up-tempo game. Wouldn't a Haywood for Swift swap make some sense? The problem is salary, but the Wiz could throw in a guy like Calvin Booth or Donnell Taylor to even things up.

Second, and more significantly, the Wizards have had significantly more success with the starters in the game than with the reserves. Preseason games have followed the same type of script. Starters give Wizards the lead, reserves cough up the lead, rinse and repeat. There are two ways of looking at this. One way is to say that it doesn't matter much, because the players on the floor were guys like Donnell Taylor and Andray Blatche, players who aren't a part of the regular rotation anyeay. The other way is to say that it does matter, because injuries and the long season are both going to force these guys into action. I tend to lean closer to the second view.

I'm particularly concerned about Andray Blatche. After a great summer league, he looked lost this preseason. The Wizards let go of Jared Jeffries partly because they believed Blatche could at least help to fill the void. After this preseason, I'm not so sure he's ready to play much at all. Making matters worse is the Songaila injury, which sounds like it could bother him all year. With Songaila out, the Wizards need Blatche even more than before. Up front, the rotation now is Haywood, Thomas, and Michael Ruffin. That's not going to get it done. Blatche was supposed to fill the void, but it appears he's not ready yet.

The lone pleasant surprise deep off the bench has been Roger Mason, a personal favorite of mine back when he played for Montrose Christian and Virginia. Mason's a local boy if you've ever seen one, and it looks like he's making Donnell Taylor expendable. If he can carry over his strong preseason to the regular season, he could even make Jarvis Hayes expendable. He's a strong shooter in rhythm, has international playing experience, and has worked hard to become a better ball-handler. If he can keep this up, it stings the blow of passing on Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo in the draft.

Here's my projected rotation. I'm assuming Mike Hall is the final cut, as he's injured and Mason pretty much makes him redundant. I don't imagine they'll cut James Lang considering the lack of frontcourt depth, so Hall is a pretty logical cut.

PG: Arenas/Daniels/Taylor
SG: Stevenson/Mason
SF: Butler/Hayes/Blatche
PF: Jamison/Songaila/Ruffin
C: Thomas/Haywood/Lang/Booth

Ideally, they'd cut Calvin Booth, but he is under contract. If Songaila wasn't hurt, I'd cut Lang, but with the injury, Hall makes perfect sense. Lang's been good this preseason and if the Wizards decide to trade Haywood, he may end up playing a role.

What's been the biggest story of the Wizards' preseason in your mind? Do you think the Wizards have shown progress in solving their most important questions?

My Wizards Preview is up!

Check out my Washington Wizards preview for NBA Blog Previews here.

Feel free to discuss it either here or there.

[edit]: It's been a really hectic week with two midterms and such, but now that it's over, I'm going to re-post the entire thing here. Enjoy!

The psyche of a Washington basketball supporter is one that is unlike any other in the NBA. Let’s consider the history. One playoff series win from the end of the Bullets Fever era of 78-79 to 2005. No seasons with more than 45 wins since 1979. 10 different head coaches in the last 10 years. One ridiculous name change. These are just a few of the things that drive a Washington fan crazy.

But it’s not just that the Washington franchise has been in a constant state of mediocrity for the better part of the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s. Unlike their mediocre brethren in the Clippers, the Wizards have always had some sort of a novelty among the league. Consider that former stars like Spencer Haywood, Gus Williams, Moses Malone, Bernard King, Rod Strickland, Mitch Richmond, Charles Oakley, and, of course, Michael Jordan all teased the Bullets/Wizards with their star power at the end of their careers. On top of that, whenever the Wizards got it right with a promising young player, they either got hurt (Chris Webber, Gheorghe Muresan), were traded too early (Manute Bol, Muggsy Bogues, Rasheed Wallace, Webber, Richard Hamilton), or underperformed (Juwan Howard, Calbert Cheaney, Kwame Brown). For years, Washington D.C. was essentially the league’s one-stop shop for aging veterans and underachieving youngsters.

If you ever wonder why the guys at Wizznutzz act like they do, try being a fan of Les Bullez for your entire life.

Why do I bring this all up? Because for the first time in ages, the Wizards actually have a real team that should be taken seriously. Sure, Gilbert Arenas is a strange dude, but the guy can play, and he has a ton of help on the court and in the front office. There’s reason for the hometown faithful to be excited about this team, so while I may not be as crazily optimistic as some of the previews so far, I’ll certainly struggle at times to contain my excitement.

Last Year/Offseason

When we last left the Wizards, they came out on the short end of a compelling six-game series against the Cleveland LeBrons…I mean Cavaliers. This loss followed a season where the Wizards were like the yo-yo in Gilbert Arenas’ head; up again, down again, up again, down again, and back up again. Early-season wins against San Antonio and Detroit were the bookends for a five-game losing streak. After falling to 12-18, the Wiz picked it up and put themselves in a prime position to match their 45 wins from the year before until a late 5 game losing streak pushed them down to 42 wins. You never knew which team was going to show up last year, but you knew they would be fun to watch

In the offseason, the Wizards said goodbye to Jared “The Enigma” Jeffries, letting him go to New York, where he will baffle Isaiah Thomas when healthy. In his place, the Wizards signed Darius Songalia from the Bulls and stole DeShawn Stevenson from the Magic for the league minimum. In the draft, the Wizards took two random guys from Europe who both won’t contribute this season.

The Strength of the Offense

It’s obvious that the Wizards’ strength is on the offensive end of the floor. When you have the highest scoring trio in the league for the second consecutive season, your offense is doing something right. What makes Washington particularly consistent offensively is their ability to get to the free throw line. Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antonio Daniels in particular do such a great job of getting to the charity stripe off the dribble without turning the ball over. This allowed the Wizards to finish sixth in the league in scoring ability despite finish 21st in true shooting percentage.

The great thing about this ability is that it doesn’t go away from night to night. Teams will have games where their jump shots aren’t falling. However, because the Wizards attack the basket so well off the dribble, they will rarely be subjected to off nights offensively.

Making this offense even scarier is the potential return of Jarvis Hayes from knee surgery. Without Hayes, the Wizards had trouble kicking the offense into full throttle unless each of the Big Three had monster games. Hayes adds a new dimension to the attack with his instant offense off the bench. He gives the Wizards a spot-up shooter on the wing that will benefit from Arenas’ penetration. Now, if only he could stay healthy…

The Weakness of the Defense

It’s no secret that the Wizards were poor defensively last year. They ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency last year, a ranking they need to raise about 8-10 spots in order to be a real contender.

It’s very easy to judge based on the Cleveland series that the Wizards need a physical, defensive big man to ever get to the next level. While that certainly was a problem in the playoffs, the reality is that there are bigger problems than that with this defense. Getting a big man like Joel Pryzbilla in free agency would not have been the best way to fix the problem.

The biggest problem was that the Wizards allowed far too many open looks at the basket in games. Had the Cavaliers’ shooters been playing at the top of their games, the result of the series could have been worse. For all of Arenas’ strengths offensively, he tends to drift off his man when he’s defending off the ball, allowing them open shot after open shot. Butler struggled with this problem as well, although he’s a much better on the ball defender than Agent Zero. While they both have been extremely dedicated to improving this in training camp, we have yet to see it translate to actual game play, although Arenas’ insistent to guard LeBron in the teams’ preseason game against Cleveland is certainly a good sign.

The other major weakness was on-the-ball defense. Jeffries was hyped as a great perimeter defender, but his sole value was his versatility rather than his man-to-man defense. Butler is a tough defender, but he lapses a lot of the time. DeShawn Stevenson should help, but on the ball defense remains a significant worry.

The Verdict

Many people have the Wizards pegged for a similar season, with a possible drop out of the playoffs. Naturally, I disagree with those predictions. There are those who wonder aloud whether the defense can ever be decent, and while those are legitimate claims, we need not look further than Dallas last season and Seattle the season before to illustrate that teams can improve their defense without making significant changes to the team’s core. In addition, the Wizards had the point differential of a 46-47 win team last year, and I don’t expect them to be as unlucky again. They’ll win more of those close games this season.

I don’t think the Wizards can contend for the title, but I think they will improve on last season. Stevenson gives the Wizards much-needed toughness on the wing, and Hayes’ return will make the offense even better. If Darius Songaila can come back healthy, the Wizards’ frontcourt will also be deeper than before. Throw in anything from Andray Blatche and a healthy return of Etan Thomas, and the frontcourt suddenly isn’t so shallow anymore.

Finally, I expect Caron Butler to have a monster year this season. It took the Wizards half a year to figure out how to use him effectively, and it was no accident that the Wizards’ 5 game losing streak at the end of the season occurred without Butler in the lineup. If he can stay healthy, he should approach 20 points a game and provide strong perimeter defense. It feels like we’ve been waiting on Butler for ages, but with a starting spot ensured and increased familiarity with Eddie Jordan’s offense, I see Butler finally showing his full potential.

There are certainly concerns, yes. The Wizards still aren’t particularly deep and I am concerned about the frontcourt depth, the defense, and the lack of a pure point guard. In addition, Orlando and their young players scare the crap out of me, and Miami is always the Wizards’ kryptonite. However, in the end I think this team will make the city go crazy with basketball fever for the first time in over a quarter of a century.

Predicted Record: 50-32, fourth seed in the East

[image via Yay! Sports]

Point-Counterpoint: The Starting Center

I'm going to start a feature here called "Point-Counterpoint." I'm going to take a look at a controversial issue regarding the Wizards, present both point of views, and ultimately make a final decision. The cool thing about this, however, is that I’ll have the two sides arguing against each other directly, meaning that we’re really just going inside someone’s head, and since it’s always fun to simulate fake conversations, we’re going to do that in this feature.

The first topic: Who starts at center for the Wizards? Brendan Haywood, or Etan Thomas? Let’s go inside Eddie Jordan’s head. Try to imagine two little fairies of Haywood and Thomas popping up on Jordan’s shoulders if you can.

Eddie Jordan: Who should I start at center this season? Arenas, Butler, Jamison, Stevenson, and who else?

Brendan Haywood fairy: Geez Eddie, the decision’s easy. I’ve started for this team since 2003. I even started for Michael Freaking Jordan! Why is this even a competition?

Etan Thomas fairy:
Wrong you are, Mr. Haywood
Steal your spot on the floor, I could
All your skills are still the same
While I’ve been focusing on my game

BH: Come on Etan, let’s get real here. Since you signed that huge contract, what exactly have you done? You put up 9 and 7 in a contract year, and since then, you’ve been crap.

ET:
Crap, my friend, is the operative word.
Because if you don’t think that’s you, you’re absurd
What have you done in your career?
7 and 6? That’s no reason to cheer

BH: Etan, this team needs a dependable big guy in the middle. I’ve averaged over 70 games a season in my career. You, my friend, have averaged 56 in that same time. In that same period, I’ve had better numbers across the board. I’ve averaged more points, rebounds, and blocks than you have. Need any more advice as to the better player, Eddie?

ET:
The times are changing, my Carolina pal
LeBron’s path to the hoop was as wide as a canal
The days of the 7 foot plodder are all but done
The ones of the athlete have just begun

BH: Look, Eddie, the choice is clear. If we’re going to keep with our prevailing theme of continuity, look no further than our Mr. Stability. That may have been a dumb rhyme, but it’s a statement of truth. I get a bad rep as an overrated crappy center, but how many teams can say they’ve had a consistent 7 footer in the middle? I’m a better defender than you think and I can score much better than Robert Frost over there.

ET:
Don’t make the mistake of listening to him
If he’s in there, our chances are grim
This isn’t your fathers’ plodding team
My style fits in better with our running scheme

Brendan wants to score like David Robinson
But that’ll get us nowhere in the postseason
We have plenty of guys to who can score the rock
So pick me, the athlete, who can actually shotblock

EJ: Could you guys be more annoying? Where’s Peter John Ramos when you need him?

Bullets Fever’s take

After reading Michael Lee's article on Haywood and Jordan's relationship, I can’t help but wonder whether this competition is real or not. Is Jordan keeping this close only to try to light a fire under Haywood? If that’s the case, I’d be really disappointed, because it would mean that Etan Thomas isn’t really all the way back to his 2004 form. Ultimately, Haywood should start, but I want to see Thomas finish more games. Haywood’s not as bad as he’s made out to be, but he’s a halfcourt center that doesn’t fit all that well to the Wizards’ running style. Thomas, while injury prone and inconsistent, is more of the type of player the Wizards should be looking for. He’s undersized, but he’s a great athlete and, most importantly, can be a real enforcer down low. If he can get back to his 2004 form, he, and not Haywood, should get the majority of the minutes at the center spot. Granted, that’s a huge if, but despite the stability of Haywood, Eddie Jordan should try to give Thomas as many chances as possible to gain the starting job.

Who do you think should win the starting center’s job? Can you really trust Etan Thomas to play to his potential?

Training Camp Thus Far

5 days of Bullets training camp is in the books, so let's take a look at how the things I posted to look out for have played out so far.

1. The shooting guard situation

As mentioned yesterday, the job belongs to DeShawn Stevenson. He has been playing the entire time with the first unit in practice, while Jarvis Hayes has been playing with the second unit. Essentially, this was never an issue.

More interesting, however, is who is going to finish games at the shooting guard spot. In the second half of last season, it was Antonio Daniels who played most of the crunch time minutes alongside Gilbert Arenas. Once the Wizards figured out how to use Daniels, he took off, attacking the basket with vigor while rarely turning the ball over.

Ivan Carter reports today that Daniels looks even better so far at camp.

Antonio Daniels looks lighter, stronger and a whole lot quicker than he did at this time last year. He's also far more comfortable with his role on this team. Remember that at this time last year, Jordan was trying to figure out where to play Daniels and Chucky Atkins. It basically took until January to figure it all out. Antonio also got off to a horrible shooting start and, in my opinion, he began to question himself instead of just playing. Now, he's just playing. He's mainly running the second team at the point guard spot. He attacks the basket like always, makes great decisions in the open court and is a leader. I also like what he's done with his jump shot. Remember how the ball tended to come out flat last year? His shot gave him little margin for error. He's getting more evelation and the ball has better arc on it now. I guess he spent the summer working on rebuilding his J and it shows. I'll talk to him about it for an upcoming story.

At the same time, aren't the Wizards going to desperately need Stevenson's perimeter defense in the fourth quarter this season? One of the reasons Daniels played so much at the end of last year was that Jared Jeffries wasn't able to guard the top 2 guards in the league when it mattered. Now that the Wizards have Stevenson, they are better equipped to play against those top wing players. Seeing as how top scoring guards are relied upon more in the fourth quarter in a close game, wouldn't it make more sense to have a defender in than a scorer like Daniels? It's definetly something to keep an eye on.

Most likely, it will depend on the game. If the Wizards have a lead, look for Stevenson to get more fourth quarter minutes. If the Wizards are behind, Daniels may play more. Either way, the Wizards better hope they can find a consistent solution, because they struggled dividing minutes in the backcourt last year.

2. How will minutes be divided in the frontcourt?

This is probably an incomplete right now. Not only is it too early to tell what the frontcourt rotation will be, but the injury to Darius Songalia complicates things. So far, Andray Blatche has been playing with the second unit in Songalia's spot, but as mentioned the other day, Eddie Jordan is tempering his optimism with the youngster.

The other intersting development is that the center spot is still unresolved. I don't know whether the fact that Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood are still fighting for the job is a testament to Haywood's inefficiency or Thomas' strong play. Was Thomas more dedicated to his fitness and therefore now injury free and effective, or was Haywood particularly lazy this offseason and therefore ineffective? As a fan, I'd hope the answer is closer to the former, but considering the way Haywood has teased everyone for 4 years without improving, it could easily be the latter. Either way, the situation is not resolved, and Carter has been surprisingly silent on the play of Thomas and Haywood thus far.

3. Is the defense really improved?

So far, it appears the Wizards are emphasizing the defense more than they ever had. Surprisingly, though, it has been the perimeter defense rather than the interior defense. Assistant coach Kevin O'Neill has been working very closely with Gilbert, Butler, Jamison, and Daniels on their off the ball defense. Carter has mentioned that the biggest problem Arenas in particular had was that he tended to watch the ball and lose his man through screens and double-teams easily. Carter specifically mentioned the Bulls game where Ben Gordon went off in the fourth quarter from the perimeter.

Essentially, the Wizards are a very similar team to the Dallas Mavericks. They are hoping to improve defense from within. O'Neill is no Avery Johnson, but his presence should mean a better overall defense this season. Hopefully, that also will translate to the interior defense, but it still seems that the Wizards are placing a premium on defense in training camp.

4. The mentality

It's early, but so far, so good. From the very beginning, the Wizards have looked focused and seem to be thinking big. Jordan predicted an Eastern Conference Finals berth before training camp and owner Abe Pollin was impressed with the dedication of the team. Today, Carter mentioned how Arenas in particular was playing with a lot of intensity, even during the scrimmages.

Also, even though it was just a training camp practice, Gilbert wanted to win. Badly. Dude was competing hard every time on both ends of the floor. The same can be said of Butler and Jamison. Coaches have to love that out of their stars.

This is the type of thing that could change with an injury or a bad preseason record, but for now, it appears the Wizards are serious about fulfilling Jordan's expectations. Carter also had this to say.

There is a quiet, unspoken air of confidence about this group that I can't quite put a finger on. It just seems that they know they are going to be good. I didn't have that same feeling last year at this time.

5. Gilbert Arenas

Arenas was his old goofy self on the first day, but since then, he's seemed very focused on improving his game. I'm sure we're going to hear more goofy quotes from Arenas during training camp, but he seems to be serious about improving his deficiencies. That's definetly a good sign.

Overall, the Wizards are having a very good training camp, but it's still early. Let's see how they deal with adversity.

In other news, I recorded an interview about the Wizards with Ryan over at Hoops Addict on his Hoops Addict podcast. Give it a listen and tell me what you think.

What are your impressions of training camp so far?