The Full Blog Preview List and Superlatives

The NBA Blog Previews are done, and we're all ready to start the year. Here's a complete list of the team previews. Major, major kudos go out to Jeff at Celtics Blog for organizing this huge project. Collective action like this is one of the reasons I'm proud to run an NBA blog.

Atlantic Division

Boston Celtics (presented by Celticsstuff Live, Celtics Blog, and LOY's Palace) 48-34, 42-40, 40-42 respectively
New Jersey Nets (presented by Nets Daily) 51-31
New York Knicks (presented by Bench Renaldo) 41-41
Philadelphia 76ers (presented by Passion and Pride) 47-35
Toronto Raptors (presented by Hoops Addict) 42-40

Central Division

Chicago Bulls (presented by Blog a Bull) 55-27
Cleveland Cavaliers (presented by Yay! Sports) 58-24
Detroit Pistons (presented by Detroit Bad Boys and Need4Sheed) 55-27, 57-25
Indiana Pacers (presented by Donning Craig Sager's Suit) 43-39
Milwaukee Bucks (presented by 5 Point Bucks) 44-39

Southeast Division

Atlanta Hawks (presented by Impending Firestorm) 37-45
Charlotte Bobcats (presented by Bobcat Bonfire) 42-40
Miami Heat (presented by Crazy From the Heat) 54-28
Orlando Magic (presented by Believing in Magic) 45-37
Washington Wizards (presented by Some Wierdo) 50-32

Southwest Division

Dallas Mavericks (presented by Mavs Moneyball) 59-23
Houston Rockets (presented by Rockets Blast) 57-25
Memphis Grizzlies (presented by The Beale Street Beat) 45-37
New Orleans Hornets (presented by Hornets 24/7) 48-34
San Antonio Spurs (presented by Pounding the Rock) 58-24

Northwest Division

Denver Nuggets (presented by The Nugg Doctor) 51-31
Minnesota Timberwolves (presented by I Heart KG) 42-40
Portland Trailblazers (presented by True Hoop) 25-30 wins
Seattle Supersonics (presented by Sonics Central) 44-46 wins
Utah Jazz (presented by Lowpost.net) 43-39

Pacific Division

Golden State Warriors (presented by Lowpost.net and Golden State of Mind) 35-47, 41-41
Los Angeles Clippers (presented by Clips Nation) 52-30
Los Angeles Lakers (presented by Jones on the NBA, Forum Blue and Gold, and Showtime) 48-34, 49-33, and 49-33 respectively
Phoenix Suns (presented by Phoenix Suns Rising and Suns Gossip) 60-22, 82-0
Sacramento Kings (presented by Sactown Royalty) 50-32

All these previews were really great, but I can't help but hand out a few superlatives.

Most Valuable Preview: It's no secret that the NBA blogosphere looks up to Henry Abbott at True Hoop, and for anyone who read his Portland Trailblazers preview, it's easy to see why. Abbott's comprehensive and realistic preview shed new light into a team that many have misinterpreted over the years. Abbott's preview was among the longer ones, but it never felt like a bore. Blog A Bull's Chicago preview takes a distant second.

The Dick Vitale Award for Most Optimistic Preview: Wow, there are so many to choose from here. Passion and Pride confused many with his prediction of 47 wins for the Sixers, and Bobcat Bonfire's 42 win prediction prompted Detroit Bad Boys' Ian Cameron to say "If the Bobcats win 42 games next year, I'll buy Detroit Shock season tickets." In the end, Bench Renaldo takes the cake for predicting 41 wins for the New York Knicks. Somewhere, Larry Brown is poking his eyes out.

The Bill Walton Award for Most Pessimistic Preview: Honestly, no preview was overly pessimistic, hardly a suprise when you ask a bunch of team bloggers to preview their teams. If someone pointed a gun at my head, I'd probably say Crazy From the Heat's Miami preview takes this one. While Vivek predicts an improvement in wins, he goes into great length describing his worry that the Heat will become complacent after winnng a title.

The Charles Barkley Award for Most Entertaining Preview: So many to choose from again, but the clear answer has to be the joint Phoenix Suns preview by Phoenix Suns Rising and Suns Gossip. The two played off each other like Kornheiser and Wilbon, with Brian providing the hard analysis and Suns Gossip providing the commentary.

Most Creative Preview: Hands down, Jason Gurney at Lowpost.net takes this with his interactive Golden State Warriors preview. A distant second is the Utah Jazz preview.

Most Unique Preview: Tom over at SacTown Royalty takes this one for his 93 question preview of the Sacramento Kings to close things off. Talk about leaving nothing to be unanswered.

6th Man Award: This goes out to Skeets and Tas at The Basketball Jones and Howie at NBA Basketball and Other Unrelatedness for keeping up with the previews despite not writing one themselves. TBJ's podcasts were another great way to start the season, and Howie's doodles were an entertaining break from the hard coverage.

Rookie Previewer of the Month: I hope that I can say that I at least shared this award after only blogging for a month and a half. Also, big props to newcomers Donning Craig Sager's Suit, Clips Nation, The Beale Street Beat, and Bobcat Bonfire.

Coach Preview of the Month: Again, one last chance to give Jeff some mad props on this project. Like I said before, it makes me proud to run an NBA blog when I can work with other team bloggers to produce a collective project like this. This was all Jeff's creation, so he deserves a lot of credit for putting it all together.

With all the previews done, it's time to get the season started!

What was your favorite NBA Blog Preview?

My Wizards Preview is up!

Check out my Washington Wizards preview for NBA Blog Previews here.

Feel free to discuss it either here or there.

[edit]: It's been a really hectic week with two midterms and such, but now that it's over, I'm going to re-post the entire thing here. Enjoy!

The psyche of a Washington basketball supporter is one that is unlike any other in the NBA. Let’s consider the history. One playoff series win from the end of the Bullets Fever era of 78-79 to 2005. No seasons with more than 45 wins since 1979. 10 different head coaches in the last 10 years. One ridiculous name change. These are just a few of the things that drive a Washington fan crazy.

But it’s not just that the Washington franchise has been in a constant state of mediocrity for the better part of the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s. Unlike their mediocre brethren in the Clippers, the Wizards have always had some sort of a novelty among the league. Consider that former stars like Spencer Haywood, Gus Williams, Moses Malone, Bernard King, Rod Strickland, Mitch Richmond, Charles Oakley, and, of course, Michael Jordan all teased the Bullets/Wizards with their star power at the end of their careers. On top of that, whenever the Wizards got it right with a promising young player, they either got hurt (Chris Webber, Gheorghe Muresan), were traded too early (Manute Bol, Muggsy Bogues, Rasheed Wallace, Webber, Richard Hamilton), or underperformed (Juwan Howard, Calbert Cheaney, Kwame Brown). For years, Washington D.C. was essentially the league’s one-stop shop for aging veterans and underachieving youngsters.

If you ever wonder why the guys at Wizznutzz act like they do, try being a fan of Les Bullez for your entire life.

Why do I bring this all up? Because for the first time in ages, the Wizards actually have a real team that should be taken seriously. Sure, Gilbert Arenas is a strange dude, but the guy can play, and he has a ton of help on the court and in the front office. There’s reason for the hometown faithful to be excited about this team, so while I may not be as crazily optimistic as some of the previews so far, I’ll certainly struggle at times to contain my excitement.

Last Year/Offseason

When we last left the Wizards, they came out on the short end of a compelling six-game series against the Cleveland LeBrons…I mean Cavaliers. This loss followed a season where the Wizards were like the yo-yo in Gilbert Arenas’ head; up again, down again, up again, down again, and back up again. Early-season wins against San Antonio and Detroit were the bookends for a five-game losing streak. After falling to 12-18, the Wiz picked it up and put themselves in a prime position to match their 45 wins from the year before until a late 5 game losing streak pushed them down to 42 wins. You never knew which team was going to show up last year, but you knew they would be fun to watch

In the offseason, the Wizards said goodbye to Jared “The Enigma” Jeffries, letting him go to New York, where he will baffle Isaiah Thomas when healthy. In his place, the Wizards signed Darius Songalia from the Bulls and stole DeShawn Stevenson from the Magic for the league minimum. In the draft, the Wizards took two random guys from Europe who both won’t contribute this season.

The Strength of the Offense

It’s obvious that the Wizards’ strength is on the offensive end of the floor. When you have the highest scoring trio in the league for the second consecutive season, your offense is doing something right. What makes Washington particularly consistent offensively is their ability to get to the free throw line. Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antonio Daniels in particular do such a great job of getting to the charity stripe off the dribble without turning the ball over. This allowed the Wizards to finish sixth in the league in scoring ability despite finish 21st in true shooting percentage.

The great thing about this ability is that it doesn’t go away from night to night. Teams will have games where their jump shots aren’t falling. However, because the Wizards attack the basket so well off the dribble, they will rarely be subjected to off nights offensively.

Making this offense even scarier is the potential return of Jarvis Hayes from knee surgery. Without Hayes, the Wizards had trouble kicking the offense into full throttle unless each of the Big Three had monster games. Hayes adds a new dimension to the attack with his instant offense off the bench. He gives the Wizards a spot-up shooter on the wing that will benefit from Arenas’ penetration. Now, if only he could stay healthy…

The Weakness of the Defense

It’s no secret that the Wizards were poor defensively last year. They ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency last year, a ranking they need to raise about 8-10 spots in order to be a real contender.

It’s very easy to judge based on the Cleveland series that the Wizards need a physical, defensive big man to ever get to the next level. While that certainly was a problem in the playoffs, the reality is that there are bigger problems than that with this defense. Getting a big man like Joel Pryzbilla in free agency would not have been the best way to fix the problem.

The biggest problem was that the Wizards allowed far too many open looks at the basket in games. Had the Cavaliers’ shooters been playing at the top of their games, the result of the series could have been worse. For all of Arenas’ strengths offensively, he tends to drift off his man when he’s defending off the ball, allowing them open shot after open shot. Butler struggled with this problem as well, although he’s a much better on the ball defender than Agent Zero. While they both have been extremely dedicated to improving this in training camp, we have yet to see it translate to actual game play, although Arenas’ insistent to guard LeBron in the teams’ preseason game against Cleveland is certainly a good sign.

The other major weakness was on-the-ball defense. Jeffries was hyped as a great perimeter defender, but his sole value was his versatility rather than his man-to-man defense. Butler is a tough defender, but he lapses a lot of the time. DeShawn Stevenson should help, but on the ball defense remains a significant worry.

The Verdict

Many people have the Wizards pegged for a similar season, with a possible drop out of the playoffs. Naturally, I disagree with those predictions. There are those who wonder aloud whether the defense can ever be decent, and while those are legitimate claims, we need not look further than Dallas last season and Seattle the season before to illustrate that teams can improve their defense without making significant changes to the team’s core. In addition, the Wizards had the point differential of a 46-47 win team last year, and I don’t expect them to be as unlucky again. They’ll win more of those close games this season.

I don’t think the Wizards can contend for the title, but I think they will improve on last season. Stevenson gives the Wizards much-needed toughness on the wing, and Hayes’ return will make the offense even better. If Darius Songaila can come back healthy, the Wizards’ frontcourt will also be deeper than before. Throw in anything from Andray Blatche and a healthy return of Etan Thomas, and the frontcourt suddenly isn’t so shallow anymore.

Finally, I expect Caron Butler to have a monster year this season. It took the Wizards half a year to figure out how to use him effectively, and it was no accident that the Wizards’ 5 game losing streak at the end of the season occurred without Butler in the lineup. If he can stay healthy, he should approach 20 points a game and provide strong perimeter defense. It feels like we’ve been waiting on Butler for ages, but with a starting spot ensured and increased familiarity with Eddie Jordan’s offense, I see Butler finally showing his full potential.

There are certainly concerns, yes. The Wizards still aren’t particularly deep and I am concerned about the frontcourt depth, the defense, and the lack of a pure point guard. In addition, Orlando and their young players scare the crap out of me, and Miami is always the Wizards’ kryptonite. However, in the end I think this team will make the city go crazy with basketball fever for the first time in over a quarter of a century.

Predicted Record: 50-32, fourth seed in the East

[image via Yay! Sports]

Analyzing the Competition

It's safe to say that few championship teams had a stranger preceeding 12 months than the Miami Heat. After a heartbreaking 7 game loss in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Detroit Pistons in 2005, executive Pat Riley took the unprecedented step of overhauling the team. Gone were Damon Jones, Eddie Jones, Rasual Butler, and Stan Van Gundy (eventually). In their place came Jason Williams, James Posey, Antoine Walker, Gary Payton, and Riley. Experts acknowledged the increased talent level, but wondered aloud why the Heat would blow up a team that was a few points and (arguably) a Dwayne Wade injury away from the finals. After struggling at points through a 52 win season, these experts' opinions seem to be vindicated, especially after a difficult 6 game series against the clearly inferior Chicago Bulls. After getting blown out at home in Game 1 against New Jersey, the Heat suddenly flipped a long-lost switch. Wade showed his superstar quality, the role players finally filled their roles, and the Heat ran all the way to an NBA title, defeating playoff favorites Detroit and Dallas along the way. Now, with the same team back from last year, the Heat have to be considered a threat to repeat their title performance.

Additions: None
Subtractions: None

The Heat are the rare championship team that returns completely intact. Alonzo Mourning re-signed with the team after being wooed by San Antonio, Gary Payton decided to come back for one more year, and Riley, after a long period of deliberation, is back as well. It speaks to the cohesivness of the Heat that none of their players bolted when the money called over the offseason.

Of course, this also speaks to the veteran nature of the team, which is probably going to end up being Miami's Achilles Heel. Other than Wade, who should become an MVP favorite this season, and Udonis Haslem, the core of Miami's team is old. Shaq is going to be 35 this season, and all indications are that he was out of shape entering training camp. Antoine Walker, James Posey, Jason Williams, Mourning, and Payton are all 29 or older. We can't really expect those players to put up career seasons at this point considering their ages.

Ultimately, the regular season doesn't matter much for Miami. They could have sleepwalked to a top 3 finish last year, and considering that their toughest competition, Detroit, lost one of their top players in the offseason, the Heat should not worry about falling out of the top seeds in the East. This is a veteran club, so I'm not too concerned that they will suddenly lose the motivation to win.

But will they win the title? Let's consider their playoff run last year. They benefited from playing a Pistons team that was completely out of gas in order to even get to the NBA Finals. While Miami certainly played well to win that series, the Pistons certainly didn't offer much competition. Had Detroit not fallen into a sudden offensive funk in the playoffs, we may not even be talking about Miami. Then, in the finals, the Heat needed a superhuman effort from Wade, with a little help from the referees, to defeat Dallas. Again, while I'm not saying Miami didn't play well, the result could have been very different in that series.

In the end, I think Miami will have a similar season to last year. Any drop-offs from the veterans should be made up by the continued maturation of Wade. I expect Wade to carry the Heat like LeBron James carried Cleveland last year. The injury to Williams is troublesome, but it may end up giving the Heat more depth than they had come playoff time last year.

However, I don't expect them to win the title. Someone will run circles around them and knock them out in the Eastern Conference Finals or in the NBA Finals. I'd say look elsewhere to find your 2007 NBA Champion.

Projected Record: 53-29

Crazy From the Heat previewed Miami for the NBA Blog Previews and predicts a 54 win season, but he won't go out on a limb and predict a repeat.

Here goes that three letter word again…The one that’ll be synonymous with Miami all season long…A-G-E.

All of us can remember a situation in most any sport where one of the great ones fell victim to “father time”. Obviously it’s one thing to play injured, knowing in the back of your mind that soon enough you’ll be back to form…But it’s another story when you’re facing opposition every single night that’s bigger, quicker, stronger, and last longer.

He goes on to say that he hopes the Heat can use their experience to outsmart their faster opponents once again, but is unsure whether this will actually happen. I'm with him on this concern. I'm not sure Miami will be able to outsmart their opponents in a league that benefits the quicker players more and more each year.

Think I screwed this one up? Let me know. How many wins do you think Miami will have this year?

Back Wednesday with my season preview for the NBA Blog Previews.

5 Things To Watch in Training Camp

In honor of the beginning of Wizards training camp (kicking off with Gilbert Arenas' amusing comments), here are a few things that Bullets Fever thinks you should keep an eye on as a Wizards fan.

1. The shooting guard situation

The Wizards, barring injury, have 4/5 of their starting lineup set. Gilbert Arenas will start at point guard, Caron Butler will start at one wing spot, Antwan Jamison will start at the 4, and Brendan Haywood, for better or for worse, will start at center. The one spot that is unresolved right now is at shooting guard. Last season, Butler was the starting shooting guard and Jared Jeffries started as a glorified small forward. Now that Jeffries is with the Knicks, there is an opening next to Butler, who seems likely to slide from the 2 to the 3.

It appears at this point that the battle will be between holdover Jarvis Hayes and newcomer DeShaun Stevenson. Stevenson started all 82 games for Orlando last year and gives the Wizards a strong wing defender and a much more versatile shooting guard than they had last year. But don't count out Hayes, who was given the starting job over Butler last year before hurting his knee. All indications are that he's all the way back and is having no problems with his surgically repaired knee. This should be a battle throughout the end of camp.

My early prediction is that Stevenson will win the job. His perimeter defense will be essential in stopping guys like Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Vince Carter. While he is limited offensively, scoring should not be a problem with Arenas, Jamison, and Butler in tow. I see Stevenson being a Trenton Hassell or Quinton Ross-type player this season. Hayes will ultimately be an extremely important player off the bench, and in my opinion, it suits him well. The Wizards struggled with their depth last season, playing only 7 guys when the playoffs rolled around. In getting Hayes back, they are increasing their depth and scoring punch from their bench. When the Wizards need an offensive spark, they should turn to Hayes.

This situation should not be resolved for some time, but keep an eye on it. Fantasy owners should root for Hayes to get the job, but in my opinion, the Wizards will be better off with Stevenson in the starting lineup.

2. How will minutes be divided in the frontcourt?

It became evident in the playoff loss to the Cavaliers last season that the Wizards needed to increase their toughness up front. Over the offseason, the only thing the Wizards did in free agency to solve that problem was to sign Darius Songalia, who was recently profiled in the Post. Improvements, therefore, must come from within, and with Songalia, Jamison, Brendan Haywood, Michael Ruffin, Etan Thomas, and possibly Calvin Booth or non-roster invite Robert "Tractor" Traylor all in the mix, the division of minutes should be interesting.

It seems pretty obvious that Jamison and Haywood will start. From the looks of things, Songalia will be the first big man off the bench. He doesn't directly address the toughness issue, but is a very good fit in the Wizards' system and, at the very least, provides the Wizards with the frontcourt depth they really lacked last season. He should play a lot next to Jamison this season.

Beyond Songalia, it's anyone's guess what happens. The Wizards could really use a resurgence from Etan Thomas. Of all the players on the team, Thomas is the closest thing to the Wes Unseld/Ben Wallace-type junkyard dog. He has struggled to stay healthy and be productive since signing a big contract after the 2004 season, but he is completely healthy now and hopefully can become a key frontcourt reserve. In lieu of a Thomas resurgence, it appears the Wizards may once again have to rely on Michael Ruffin. Ruffin plays hard, but is undersized and is not much of a defensive presence. For the Wizards sake, they better hope that Thomas can come back and play meaningful minutes this season.

3. Is the defense really improved?

The players seem to be saying all the right things now, but will we see a better defensive team this season? Signing Stevenson will upgrade the perimeter defense significantly. Jeffries was valuable for his versatility, but he struggled guarding the top perimeter scorers in the game. With Stevenson and Caron Butler, the Wizards have two tough perimeter defenders that will make things difficult for the top guards in the East.

Most people are looking to the frontcourt for defensive improvements, but Michael Wilbon says that improvement needs to start with the team's star, Gilbert Arenas. If Arenas is committed to raising his defensive game, the Wizards will follow him and become tougher and meaner. I had never really thought of it that way, but it's probably true. Arenas does need to become a better defender at the point position.

However, the interior defense is not simply going to become a top unit overnight just because Gilbert Arenas says so. Songalia says that he is going to bang and do the dirty work, but he averaged only 4 rebounds per game last year. Getting more out of Etan Thomas would be nice, but it's probably a bonus at this point. In the end, it has to be a group effort. Songalia needs to become a slightly better rebounder, Brendan Haywood needs to be more consistent, and Thomas needs to get back to the level he was at two years ago. If all three of those players have good training camps, I will be confident. Otherwise, we may see the same problems we saw in the playoffs last season.

4. The mentality

This training camp has a different feel to it already. Players have come out and said that the Wizards are serious about being an Eastern Conference contender. Arenas and Butler both underwent grueling training over the offseason, and both should be better players this year. Will this positive energy continue? My guess is that it will. This team seems more highly motivated than any Wizards team in history. Hopefully it will translate on the court.

5. Gilbert Arenas

Certainly, we should keep track of Arenas' post-practice interview sessions to see what he'll say, as he's already provided a few gems. Other than that, however, Arenas will be a key player in training camp. He is the leader of this team and supposidely is going to play with a chip on his shoulder. What is that ultimately going to mean? Will he simply try to stick it to the Blazers and Suns and work simply on his scoring, or will we see him becoming a more complete player this season? Is he committed to his defense and spreading the ball around? We all know Arenas can score with the best players in the league, but is this the year he really becomes an all-around star like Kobe or Wade? So far, it seems like it will be, but you never know with Gilbert. This will certainly be something to keep an eye on all season.

Who wins the starting shooting guard spot? Who should see the majority of the minutes there?