Forget Offense and Defense: The Bench is the Problem!

It seems wierd to say this, but let me be the first to do it.

Darius Songaila's injury and the effect it has had on the Wizards bench is the primary reason why the Wizards are 4-9.

Okay, maybe Songaila himself isn't the only culprit. Gilbert Arenas has been hot and cold all year. Antawn Jamison's shot has deserted him. The two have been inconsistent all year, and the overall defensive effort still needs some work.

Still, the injury to Songaila, while not playing a major role on its own, has exposed the Wizards absolute lack of a bench. It is my firm belief that this problem has caused all the other problems and needs to be fixed.

Commenter Mel Turpin had this to say.

One of the biggest problems with this team is a total lack of any fire power off the bench. Good teams in the NBA get thirty or forty points per game from their bench. The Wizards are lucky to get ten points.

I'd agree with the sentiment of the statement, but I'd slightly amend the meat of it. A bench doesn't necessarily need to provide scoring, and between Antonio Daniels and Jarvis Hayes, they usually get 10 points most games. What is necessary from a bench is a spark; a player who can play 20-25 minutes and potentially provide the necessary offense, defense, rebounding, or playmaking necessary to win a game. In lieu of one player, many teams like Dallas and San Antonio rely on a lot of bench guys to be successful.

Either way, you have to have one or the other to be a successful team. San Antonio makes up for the lack of star power with a ton of options, including Brent Barry, Michael Finley, Fabricio Oberto, Francisco Elson, and Beno Udrih. Dallas is very much the same way, but they also have a potential impact player in Jerry Stackhouse. Phoenix relies on the offensive spark of Leandro Barbosa off the bench to win games for them. The Lakers are at least two deep at every position, and Orlando often gets more production out of bench players like Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling than their starters. Even Utah gets a lot of intangible qualities out of guys like Matt Harpring, Ronnie Brewer, and Paul Millsap, and this change has arguably been one of the catalysts to their sudden improvement. Good teams therefore either need to have one of their best players come off the bench (like Barbosa, Harpring, and Mike Miller on Memphis last year ) or have a multitute of options so that someone invariably emerges every night (the Dallas-San Antonio-LA Lakers strategy).

This is ultimately where the Wizards have failed this year. The offense and defense have struggled, but I think it's all tied back to the bench. Only 7 players on the Wizards have a PER (player efficiency rating) over 10. The Hawks, Nets, Heat, Bobcats, and Sonics are the only teams that have a similar lack of efficiency from their bench.

The Wizards bench can basically be summed up as follows.

• Antonio Daniels: Nice player, a personal favorite, but best suited to being a 7th man. Probably isn't good enough to start on a playoff team. If there were 3 players as good as Daniels on this bench, it would be a solid unit, but there isn't.
• Brendan Haywood: Pretty solid backup center, but way too inconsistent to provide a spark every night.
• Jarvis Hayes: Has been really bad this year, with a PER under 9. He takes too many shots and doesn't make enough of them.
  
• Michael Ruffin: No offensive ability, pretty poor defensive ability, average rebounder, commits tons of fouls, and the team's +/- with him on the floor stinks.
• Calvin Booth: Michael Ruffin, but with slightly more defensive skills and worse rebounding skills.
• Roger Mason, Donnell Taylor, Andray Blatche: Unproven.

With this cast of characters, the Wizards' bench fulfills neither requirement presented above. There are no consistent impact players on the bench, and there isn't enough depth to ensure that the team will get something out of this unit no matter what. Daniels comes closest to being an impact player, but he doesn't really add a new dimension to the team game like Barbosa, Millsap, Ben Gordon, or Jerry Stackhouse do. Haywood is a decent backup center who would be a real asset if the bench was deeper. Hayes and Ruffin receive too many minutes, and nobody else really plays much.

Coming into the season, this wasn't expected to be a problem. At the end of last year, a lack of a bench really killed the Wizards, and Ernie Grunfeld went seeing a remedy to the problem. Songaila and Stevenson were brought in, and combined with the continued maturation of Blatche and the healthy return of Hayes and Etan Thomas, the Wizards were all set to be two-deep at every position. Songaila in particular was a particularly good pickup; he probably would have averaged a solid 10 points and 7 rebounds a game in this system. He would have been a versatile impact player off the bench for the Wizards all year and would have singlehandily significantly upgraded a sore weakness for the Wizards.

Then, Songaila got hurt and threw everything off. Injuries happen, and I'm not blaming the Wizards season on an unfortunate event. But the Wizards have dealt with this setback horribly thus far this season, as Eddie Jordan's shortening of the rotation have put too much strain on the starters all season, which has caused them to press and be prone to spells of inconsistency.

Entering the season, a great point of comparison for the Wizards in terms of their benches were the Sacramento Kings. The biggest knock on Sacramento entering the season was their lack of depth, made possible by a bench that seemed to only include Kenny Thomas and John Salmons. Any injury to their top seven would have potentially killed them. As John Hollinger said:

The Kings are so lacking off the bench, with their best reserve a year ago ([Kevin] Martin) now forced to start. The frontcourt has obvious weaknesses, but the backcourt is no picnic either -- just to have a decent seven-man rotation would require either [John] Salmons or [Francisco] Garcia to play much better than a year ago, or [Quincy] Douby to hit the ground running.

So far this season, the Kings have suffered a loss from one of their top 7 (Brad Miller) and survived okay. Instead of shortening his rotation, coach Eric Musselman lengthened it, giving extended looks to youngsters such as Salmons, Garcia, and Ronnie Price and old relics like Corloss Williamson. The end result is that Williamson has experienced a revival and Price has emerged as a solid backup guard, thereby giving Sacramento more sources for the spark they desperately need. What was once a putrid bench is now a solid one now that Miller has returned to the lineup.

For the Wizards to improve and snap out of their slump, they need to develop the same type of bench Sacramento did when they lost Miller. Eddie Jordan needs to play the young guys more so they can gain experience where they can be potential sparks off the bench for the rest of the season. Instead of playing Michael Ruffin 8 minutes, why not play Andray Blatche? The kid is still raw, but the only way he will significantly improve is if he gets more playing time. Instead of playing the Big 3 over 37 minutes a game each, why not cut their time down to the 35 minute range and give the remaining minutes to Roger Mason and Donnell Taylor? Mason impressed Jordan in camp, but he barely even gets a look now. If he's not going to play, I don't see any reason to have him on the team.

Here's the current average minutes breakdown of the team, rounding up the decimals.

Jamison: 39
Arenas: 38
Butler: 37
Stevenson: 27
Daniels: 27
Thomas: 22
Haywood: 18
Hayes: 16
Ruffin: 8
Blatche: 7
Booth: 6
Taylor: 5
Mason: 5

Here's what I would propose until Songaila comes back.

Arenas: 38
Butler: 36
Jamison: 33
Stevenson: 27
Daniels: 25
Thomas: 22
Haywood: 20
Hayes: 12
Blatche: 12
Mason: 10
Booth: 8
Taylor: 7
Ruffin: 5

In each situation, the total minutes are the same, but the three youngsters, along with Haywood and Booth, see a hike in their minutes. To compensate, Jamison sees his MPG drop by 6 and Ruffin and Hayes see much less of the court than before.

More minutes for the youngsters is the key to improving this team. The Big 3 are currently forced to do too much, and when they're having a bad game, the team suffers significantly. The Wizards need to develop a decent bench, or else their fortunes will continued to be tied to Gilbert Arenas' shooting. The only way to do this is to give Blatche, Mason, and Taylor more playing time in the hope that someone can emerge as a decent threat, a la Ronnie Price. Only then will the Wizards make that jump into the East's upper eschelon.

Songaila Out Three Months

This is very bad news for the Wizards. Darius Songaila's back troubles are ultimately going to lead to surgery to repair the herniated disc and will miss at least half the year. Andray Blatche better grow up in a hurry, because otherwise the Wizards are going to struggle again with their frontcourt depth.

Who knew that when Songaila missed the first practice in training camp that it would ever become so serious?

How big a deal is this news? What do the Wizards need to do to compensate?

Training Camp Roundup

Lots and lots is happening in Richmond at Wizards (Bullets) training camp. Here is some of the latest.

-According to multiple news sources, the Wizards have extended the contract of general manager Ernie Grunfeld. Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but it is a multi-year extension. While the Wizards probably didn't have to worry about Grunfeld going anywhere, signing him to an extension was a must. Grunfeld is completely responsible for the Wizards turnaround, having orchestrated the signing of Gilbert Arenas and the trades for Antwan Jamison and Caron Butler. For an organization who has been through many failed regimes (*cough Wes Unseld, Michael Jordan*cough), Grunfeld has been a breath of fresh air. It's about time the Wizards rewarded his success with an extension. Great, great news for Wizards fans.

-In lighter news, Dan Steinberg of the DC Sports Blog has been all over Gilbert Arenas these last couple days, providing updates on his new tattoos, his nickname (Agent Zero or The Stealth...I personally like Agent Zero), and his views on the new ball. It's really cool that Steinberg is giving us a look at the other side of the Wizards training camp, especially because Arenas is such a character. While it's much easier to be entertaining when we're talking about a personality like Arenas, it's still really impressive for a newspaper reporter to have a type of relationship with the players where they'll tell him anything. That type of trust is hard to build, and I commend Steinberg and the DC Sports Blog for building it.

-Not to be outdone, Ivan Carter has been hard at work as the Wizards beat writer for the Post. He has a great article on Andray Blatche, a player he and I both see as an X-Factor this season. If Blatche can give the Wizards 10-20 solid minutes off the bench this season, the Wizards frontcourt issues will be much less glaring. Blatche's versatility was one of the main factors in letting Jared Jeffries go, and if he can have a good training camp, it will springboard him into the rotation, where he can finally show off that versatility.

Eddie Jordan has this to say about Blatche so far (via the Post's Wizards Insider).

"Right now, I'd give him an incomplete. Everyone is jacked up at the start of training camp. Let's see how he is when he's a little soar, a little beat up, a little bruised...when he gets tired. Let's see if he stays in it."

Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but it's probably accurate. Let's wait and see on Blatche throughout training camp.

-In more concerning news regarding the frontcourt depth, new free-agent acquisition Darius Songalia missed his second straight practice with a sore back. While the injury does not appear to be too serious, back issues are never something to be treated lightly (just ask Tracy McGrady). Add that to the fact that Songalia hasn't exactly been mister durability in his NBA career, and there is some concern. Hopefully, we will see a healthy Songalia before the Wizards preseason opener against the Raptors on Monday.

-This Ivan Carter post on the Wizards Insider is a must-read. I haven't really seen much commentary from Carter in most beat articles, but through the medium of a blog, we see some real constructive commentary.

A portion of last night's practice gave me an idea of what to look for. The Wizards were working in a half-court set walking through a few basic defensive rotations. A visiting coach -- Kevin O'Neill, who is known for his defensive philosophies -- walked the fellas through a series of situations they will see in just about any game. A player drives from the wing to the baseline and is cut off by a rotating big man. Now what? O'Neill concentrated on the back side guys, in this case instructing Gilbert Arenas and DeShawn Stevenson on how the coaches want them to react to a play that is going away from them.

To me, this is key because it is precisely how the Wizards were often hurt last season. Gilbert, Caron Butler, Jamison and other wing players would sometimes get caught shooting for a steal or sagging into the paint off of a weak-side shooter and that player would break the defense down either with an open shot with dribble penetration. Remember that late season night in Chicago when Ben Gordon made all of those threes off of skip passes or dribble penetration and kick-outs?

The area where Gilbert has struggled is not necessarily with on-the-ball defense though he hasn't exactly been Joe Dumars. The bigger issues have been when he's off the ball or has to get through screens while chasing his man (remember Jose Calderon running him off screen after screen in Toronto last season and gettting whatever he wanted?). Gil tends to turn his head, stop his feet and follow the ball with his eyes when it goes away from him and he tends to drop his hands and runs shoulder smack into a screener instead of using his upper body to slide around the screen. Caron got better at getting over and through screens as the season went on but also gets caught either che hiating to get into passing lanes or sagging off when the ball went away from him.

-Former George Washington star Mike Hall has impressed so far with his defense and may have a chance to stick with the team as a backup small forward.

In other NBA stuff...

-The Atlantic Division previews are officially done, as Jon from Passion and Pride posted his 76ers preview and Ryan from Hoops Addict posted his Raptors preview. Both guys are very optimistic about their team's chances. Jon predicts 47 wins from Phily this season, while Ryan predicts 42 for the Raptors. This means that every single Atlantic Division blogger has predicted their team to win at least 40 games. Either the Atlantic Divison is even more wide open than we thought, or there's a slight overdose of preseason optimism on the part of Atlantic Division bloggers. Personally, I'm leaning towards the latter, with a side dish of the former.

-The interview I had with Ryan at Hoops Addict for his Training Camp Rundown should be up soon. In the meantime, check out Ryan's interviews with ClipperBlog, Bobcats Bonfire, and The Nugg Doctor.

-With nothing more to say, I leave you with this old classic Sports Center commercial.

5 Things To Watch in Training Camp

In honor of the beginning of Wizards training camp (kicking off with Gilbert Arenas' amusing comments), here are a few things that Bullets Fever thinks you should keep an eye on as a Wizards fan.

1. The shooting guard situation

The Wizards, barring injury, have 4/5 of their starting lineup set. Gilbert Arenas will start at point guard, Caron Butler will start at one wing spot, Antwan Jamison will start at the 4, and Brendan Haywood, for better or for worse, will start at center. The one spot that is unresolved right now is at shooting guard. Last season, Butler was the starting shooting guard and Jared Jeffries started as a glorified small forward. Now that Jeffries is with the Knicks, there is an opening next to Butler, who seems likely to slide from the 2 to the 3.

It appears at this point that the battle will be between holdover Jarvis Hayes and newcomer DeShaun Stevenson. Stevenson started all 82 games for Orlando last year and gives the Wizards a strong wing defender and a much more versatile shooting guard than they had last year. But don't count out Hayes, who was given the starting job over Butler last year before hurting his knee. All indications are that he's all the way back and is having no problems with his surgically repaired knee. This should be a battle throughout the end of camp.

My early prediction is that Stevenson will win the job. His perimeter defense will be essential in stopping guys like Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Vince Carter. While he is limited offensively, scoring should not be a problem with Arenas, Jamison, and Butler in tow. I see Stevenson being a Trenton Hassell or Quinton Ross-type player this season. Hayes will ultimately be an extremely important player off the bench, and in my opinion, it suits him well. The Wizards struggled with their depth last season, playing only 7 guys when the playoffs rolled around. In getting Hayes back, they are increasing their depth and scoring punch from their bench. When the Wizards need an offensive spark, they should turn to Hayes.

This situation should not be resolved for some time, but keep an eye on it. Fantasy owners should root for Hayes to get the job, but in my opinion, the Wizards will be better off with Stevenson in the starting lineup.

2. How will minutes be divided in the frontcourt?

It became evident in the playoff loss to the Cavaliers last season that the Wizards needed to increase their toughness up front. Over the offseason, the only thing the Wizards did in free agency to solve that problem was to sign Darius Songalia, who was recently profiled in the Post. Improvements, therefore, must come from within, and with Songalia, Jamison, Brendan Haywood, Michael Ruffin, Etan Thomas, and possibly Calvin Booth or non-roster invite Robert "Tractor" Traylor all in the mix, the division of minutes should be interesting.

It seems pretty obvious that Jamison and Haywood will start. From the looks of things, Songalia will be the first big man off the bench. He doesn't directly address the toughness issue, but is a very good fit in the Wizards' system and, at the very least, provides the Wizards with the frontcourt depth they really lacked last season. He should play a lot next to Jamison this season.

Beyond Songalia, it's anyone's guess what happens. The Wizards could really use a resurgence from Etan Thomas. Of all the players on the team, Thomas is the closest thing to the Wes Unseld/Ben Wallace-type junkyard dog. He has struggled to stay healthy and be productive since signing a big contract after the 2004 season, but he is completely healthy now and hopefully can become a key frontcourt reserve. In lieu of a Thomas resurgence, it appears the Wizards may once again have to rely on Michael Ruffin. Ruffin plays hard, but is undersized and is not much of a defensive presence. For the Wizards sake, they better hope that Thomas can come back and play meaningful minutes this season.

3. Is the defense really improved?

The players seem to be saying all the right things now, but will we see a better defensive team this season? Signing Stevenson will upgrade the perimeter defense significantly. Jeffries was valuable for his versatility, but he struggled guarding the top perimeter scorers in the game. With Stevenson and Caron Butler, the Wizards have two tough perimeter defenders that will make things difficult for the top guards in the East.

Most people are looking to the frontcourt for defensive improvements, but Michael Wilbon says that improvement needs to start with the team's star, Gilbert Arenas. If Arenas is committed to raising his defensive game, the Wizards will follow him and become tougher and meaner. I had never really thought of it that way, but it's probably true. Arenas does need to become a better defender at the point position.

However, the interior defense is not simply going to become a top unit overnight just because Gilbert Arenas says so. Songalia says that he is going to bang and do the dirty work, but he averaged only 4 rebounds per game last year. Getting more out of Etan Thomas would be nice, but it's probably a bonus at this point. In the end, it has to be a group effort. Songalia needs to become a slightly better rebounder, Brendan Haywood needs to be more consistent, and Thomas needs to get back to the level he was at two years ago. If all three of those players have good training camps, I will be confident. Otherwise, we may see the same problems we saw in the playoffs last season.

4. The mentality

This training camp has a different feel to it already. Players have come out and said that the Wizards are serious about being an Eastern Conference contender. Arenas and Butler both underwent grueling training over the offseason, and both should be better players this year. Will this positive energy continue? My guess is that it will. This team seems more highly motivated than any Wizards team in history. Hopefully it will translate on the court.

5. Gilbert Arenas

Certainly, we should keep track of Arenas' post-practice interview sessions to see what he'll say, as he's already provided a few gems. Other than that, however, Arenas will be a key player in training camp. He is the leader of this team and supposidely is going to play with a chip on his shoulder. What is that ultimately going to mean? Will he simply try to stick it to the Blazers and Suns and work simply on his scoring, or will we see him becoming a more complete player this season? Is he committed to his defense and spreading the ball around? We all know Arenas can score with the best players in the league, but is this the year he really becomes an all-around star like Kobe or Wade? So far, it seems like it will be, but you never know with Gilbert. This will certainly be something to keep an eye on all season.

Who wins the starting shooting guard spot? Who should see the majority of the minutes there?

The 2 for 1 swap

For the second time in as many years, the Wizards lost a key member of their starting lineup from the previous season in the off-season. In 2005, it was unrestricted free agent Larry Hughes signing a 5 year, 70 million dollar contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers. This season, it was restricted free agent Jared Jeffries signing a 5 year, 30 million dollar contract with the New York Knicks.

There are a variety of ways a team can deal with the loss of a key starter. Most of the time, the team will try to replace the player with a cheaper alternative. One recent example is Detroit signing Nazr Mohammad after losing Ben Wallace to the Bulls. For 30 million dollars less, the Pistons got a center who isn't quite as good as Wallace, but at least will be serviceable. The Phoenix Suns also did this last offseason. They traded starting shooting guard Joe Johnson to the Atlanta Hawks and replaced him with Raja Bell. Bell ultimately proved to be nearly as good a fit as Johnson, but came with a significantly lower price tag.

Teams also sometimes try to replace the talent lost with similar talent. An example of this is the Pacers signing Al Harrington after losing Peja Stojakovic to the Hornets. Harrington may have slightly different skills than Stojakovic, but the Pacers would most likely content that both players' overall talent is very similar. Another example with the 2006 offseason is the Los Angeles Clippers replacing Vladimir Radmanovic with Tim Thomas. While neither player is a starter, they both have very similar talent levels, as indicated by their nearly identical mid-level contracts.

Sometimes, the team will promote a rookie or a non-starter to the spot. The Sacramento Kings went this route in the offseason. They made little effort to re-sign starting shooting guard Bonzi Wells, electing instead to promote second-string shooting guard Kevin Martin to the starting job. Milwaukee also exercised this option, electing to promote Maurice Williams to the starting point guard job after trading T.J. Ford.

But the Wizards didn't go down any of those routes when replacing their key starters. Instead, realizing that no one player would be a good enough replacement, they engaged in a "two for one trade." Instead of signing only one player, the Wizards decided to acquire two cheaper players to collectively fill the void of the lost starter.

In 2005, signing Larry Hughes would have killed the Wizards payroll flexibility, so Ernie Grunfeld made the wise decision to let Hughes walk to the Cavaliers. However, losing Hughes was a significant blow to the Wizards. Hughes' mid-range and slashing scoring ability would be missed, and so would his defense and his ball-handling. No one player on the free agent market could have possibly replaced all that Hughes offered to the 2005 Wizards. Knowing this, Ernie Grunfeld decided to fill Hughes role with 2 players. He traded for Caron Butler, someone who could help replace Hughes slashing and scoring ability, and then signed Antonio Daniels, a player who could help replace Hughes' playmaking ability.

This offseason, the Wizards explored the same route. The Knicks swooped in quickly on restricted free agent Jared Jeffries, offering him their full mid-level exception. Instead of matching the offer, Grunfeld again went out to search for alternatives. The Wizards would miss Jeffries post defense and wing defense next season, but 30 million dollars was too much to pay for a poor offensive player. Instead, the Wizards signed Darius Songalia to replace Jeffries' post defense, and later signed DeShaun Stevenson to replace Jeffries perimeter defense.

The most logical question is, does this method work? Economically speaking, Grunfeld's bargain-basement scouring has ultimately proved to be very successful so far. Butler has emerged as a better scorer and defender than Hughes, and Daniels has found his stride as a key reserve. On the court, however, it took a while for the new pieces to gell. The Wizards started out very slowly last year. Butler's talents were being wasted on the bench, and Daniels was struggling to find his role. It was only in the second half of the season that Butler starting tearing it up and Daniels found his role. The end result was a team that, while at times better than in 2005, ultimately won 3 fewer games and failed to return to the second round of the playoffs.

What can we expect, then, from this offseason's two-for-one during the season? Like last year, it wouldn't shock me for the Wizards to struggle to find roles for all their players, in addition to just Songalia and Stevenson. Jarvis Hayes, hurt for much of last year, is back, and the Wizards also expect to move Andray Blache into the rotation. With all that uncertainty, it may take a while for Eddie Jordan to settle on a rotation.

That being said, the Wizards should not struggle nearly as much as they did last season. Last year, the Wizards spend half the year trying to replace Hughes' scoring. Butler didn't emerge as a key offensive option until late in the year. This season, the Wizards will have no trouble scoring, with Butler having emerged alongside Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. Defense may be an issue, but Butler is already as good a perimeter defender as Jeffries, and Songalia is a perfect fit for the Wizards scheme. In the end, the two-for-one shouldn't hurt the Wizards too much. They should make the playoffs (not finish with 36 wins, End of the Bench!), and win around 50 games.

Do you think the 2 for 1 swap this offseason will work? Will the Wizards have trouble replacing Jeffries?