Wizards 97, Hawks 96: Offensive aggression allows Wizards to win an ugly one

It's one of the strangest lines you'll ever see, but in a game where both teams struggled to hold onto the basketball, Caron Butler's 21 point, 15 free throw performance in the win tonight is something that needs to be explored more extensively.

In their last two losses, the Wizards have suffered from a lack of aggressivness in taking the ball to the basket. The Wizards shot significantly more free throws than their opponents last season, but in losses to Memphis and Detroit, the Wizards did very little to debunk the popular idea that they are a soft jump-shooting team. As soon as shots stopped going in, the Wizards offense stopped working. Even the best teams can't win too many games scoring 80 points every game.

This backdrop is why Butler's performance tonight is particularly important to understand. He made more free throws tonight (15) than field goals (10). Instead of hoisting jumper after jumper in hopes of heating up, Butler made sure to attack the rim and get easy points at the free throw line. This in turn allowed the Wizards to win the game despite turning the ball over 21 times (this will be a subject of a future post) and getting outrebounded 44-38.

In terms of quantitative analysis, the Wizards +11 in points at the free throw line won them this game. The Hawks shot only 42 percent, but they still were +10 in points on field goals because they attempted 20 more shots. Combine that with a 15-6 advantage on the offensive glass, and it's safe to say that Atlanta's offense was working better than Washington's. Still, the Wizards were able to win this game because of their renewed offensive aggression. The Wizards' offense struggled with turnovers and a lack of flow, but because they attacked the basket with a renewed vigor, they were able to get enough to win.

Also, I can't recap this game without giving props to Jarvis Hayes. I've been hard on the guy, but he had a superb game tonight, pnroviding 9 points on 3-3 from three point range as well as superb defense on Joe Johnson when it mattered most. If Hayes could simply focus on playing his role and improving his shot selection, he could provide the type of bench spark this team desperately needs. When he's shooting 10 times in only 18-2o minutes, it's a problem. Tonight, he picked his spots well and made three huge treys.

Overall, there were lots of encouraging signs. The turnovers are a huge problem--one big enough to tackle in a future post--and the inability to score in the halfcourt at the end of the game is troubling, but the Hawks are a tricky team to play because they have a real star and a number of athletic surrounding pieces. The Wizards did not play their best game at all tonight, but because of a renewed focus on aggression (led by Butler), the Wizards found a way to win an ugly one.

Postgame thoughts? What do you guys think went well and what do you think still needs work?

Forget Offense and Defense: The Bench is the Problem!

It seems wierd to say this, but let me be the first to do it.

Darius Songaila's injury and the effect it has had on the Wizards bench is the primary reason why the Wizards are 4-9.

Okay, maybe Songaila himself isn't the only culprit. Gilbert Arenas has been hot and cold all year. Antawn Jamison's shot has deserted him. The two have been inconsistent all year, and the overall defensive effort still needs some work.

Still, the injury to Songaila, while not playing a major role on its own, has exposed the Wizards absolute lack of a bench. It is my firm belief that this problem has caused all the other problems and needs to be fixed.

Commenter Mel Turpin had this to say.

One of the biggest problems with this team is a total lack of any fire power off the bench. Good teams in the NBA get thirty or forty points per game from their bench. The Wizards are lucky to get ten points.

I'd agree with the sentiment of the statement, but I'd slightly amend the meat of it. A bench doesn't necessarily need to provide scoring, and between Antonio Daniels and Jarvis Hayes, they usually get 10 points most games. What is necessary from a bench is a spark; a player who can play 20-25 minutes and potentially provide the necessary offense, defense, rebounding, or playmaking necessary to win a game. In lieu of one player, many teams like Dallas and San Antonio rely on a lot of bench guys to be successful.

Either way, you have to have one or the other to be a successful team. San Antonio makes up for the lack of star power with a ton of options, including Brent Barry, Michael Finley, Fabricio Oberto, Francisco Elson, and Beno Udrih. Dallas is very much the same way, but they also have a potential impact player in Jerry Stackhouse. Phoenix relies on the offensive spark of Leandro Barbosa off the bench to win games for them. The Lakers are at least two deep at every position, and Orlando often gets more production out of bench players like Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling than their starters. Even Utah gets a lot of intangible qualities out of guys like Matt Harpring, Ronnie Brewer, and Paul Millsap, and this change has arguably been one of the catalysts to their sudden improvement. Good teams therefore either need to have one of their best players come off the bench (like Barbosa, Harpring, and Mike Miller on Memphis last year ) or have a multitute of options so that someone invariably emerges every night (the Dallas-San Antonio-LA Lakers strategy).

This is ultimately where the Wizards have failed this year. The offense and defense have struggled, but I think it's all tied back to the bench. Only 7 players on the Wizards have a PER (player efficiency rating) over 10. The Hawks, Nets, Heat, Bobcats, and Sonics are the only teams that have a similar lack of efficiency from their bench.

The Wizards bench can basically be summed up as follows.

• Antonio Daniels: Nice player, a personal favorite, but best suited to being a 7th man. Probably isn't good enough to start on a playoff team. If there were 3 players as good as Daniels on this bench, it would be a solid unit, but there isn't.
• Brendan Haywood: Pretty solid backup center, but way too inconsistent to provide a spark every night.
• Jarvis Hayes: Has been really bad this year, with a PER under 9. He takes too many shots and doesn't make enough of them.
  
• Michael Ruffin: No offensive ability, pretty poor defensive ability, average rebounder, commits tons of fouls, and the team's +/- with him on the floor stinks.
• Calvin Booth: Michael Ruffin, but with slightly more defensive skills and worse rebounding skills.
• Roger Mason, Donnell Taylor, Andray Blatche: Unproven.

With this cast of characters, the Wizards' bench fulfills neither requirement presented above. There are no consistent impact players on the bench, and there isn't enough depth to ensure that the team will get something out of this unit no matter what. Daniels comes closest to being an impact player, but he doesn't really add a new dimension to the team game like Barbosa, Millsap, Ben Gordon, or Jerry Stackhouse do. Haywood is a decent backup center who would be a real asset if the bench was deeper. Hayes and Ruffin receive too many minutes, and nobody else really plays much.

Coming into the season, this wasn't expected to be a problem. At the end of last year, a lack of a bench really killed the Wizards, and Ernie Grunfeld went seeing a remedy to the problem. Songaila and Stevenson were brought in, and combined with the continued maturation of Blatche and the healthy return of Hayes and Etan Thomas, the Wizards were all set to be two-deep at every position. Songaila in particular was a particularly good pickup; he probably would have averaged a solid 10 points and 7 rebounds a game in this system. He would have been a versatile impact player off the bench for the Wizards all year and would have singlehandily significantly upgraded a sore weakness for the Wizards.

Then, Songaila got hurt and threw everything off. Injuries happen, and I'm not blaming the Wizards season on an unfortunate event. But the Wizards have dealt with this setback horribly thus far this season, as Eddie Jordan's shortening of the rotation have put too much strain on the starters all season, which has caused them to press and be prone to spells of inconsistency.

Entering the season, a great point of comparison for the Wizards in terms of their benches were the Sacramento Kings. The biggest knock on Sacramento entering the season was their lack of depth, made possible by a bench that seemed to only include Kenny Thomas and John Salmons. Any injury to their top seven would have potentially killed them. As John Hollinger said:

The Kings are so lacking off the bench, with their best reserve a year ago ([Kevin] Martin) now forced to start. The frontcourt has obvious weaknesses, but the backcourt is no picnic either -- just to have a decent seven-man rotation would require either [John] Salmons or [Francisco] Garcia to play much better than a year ago, or [Quincy] Douby to hit the ground running.

So far this season, the Kings have suffered a loss from one of their top 7 (Brad Miller) and survived okay. Instead of shortening his rotation, coach Eric Musselman lengthened it, giving extended looks to youngsters such as Salmons, Garcia, and Ronnie Price and old relics like Corloss Williamson. The end result is that Williamson has experienced a revival and Price has emerged as a solid backup guard, thereby giving Sacramento more sources for the spark they desperately need. What was once a putrid bench is now a solid one now that Miller has returned to the lineup.

For the Wizards to improve and snap out of their slump, they need to develop the same type of bench Sacramento did when they lost Miller. Eddie Jordan needs to play the young guys more so they can gain experience where they can be potential sparks off the bench for the rest of the season. Instead of playing Michael Ruffin 8 minutes, why not play Andray Blatche? The kid is still raw, but the only way he will significantly improve is if he gets more playing time. Instead of playing the Big 3 over 37 minutes a game each, why not cut their time down to the 35 minute range and give the remaining minutes to Roger Mason and Donnell Taylor? Mason impressed Jordan in camp, but he barely even gets a look now. If he's not going to play, I don't see any reason to have him on the team.

Here's the current average minutes breakdown of the team, rounding up the decimals.

Jamison: 39
Arenas: 38
Butler: 37
Stevenson: 27
Daniels: 27
Thomas: 22
Haywood: 18
Hayes: 16
Ruffin: 8
Blatche: 7
Booth: 6
Taylor: 5
Mason: 5

Here's what I would propose until Songaila comes back.

Arenas: 38
Butler: 36
Jamison: 33
Stevenson: 27
Daniels: 25
Thomas: 22
Haywood: 20
Hayes: 12
Blatche: 12
Mason: 10
Booth: 8
Taylor: 7
Ruffin: 5

In each situation, the total minutes are the same, but the three youngsters, along with Haywood and Booth, see a hike in their minutes. To compensate, Jamison sees his MPG drop by 6 and Ruffin and Hayes see much less of the court than before.

More minutes for the youngsters is the key to improving this team. The Big 3 are currently forced to do too much, and when they're having a bad game, the team suffers significantly. The Wizards need to develop a decent bench, or else their fortunes will continued to be tied to Gilbert Arenas' shooting. The only way to do this is to give Blatche, Mason, and Taylor more playing time in the hope that someone can emerge as a decent threat, a la Ronnie Price. Only then will the Wizards make that jump into the East's upper eschelon.

Wizards 111, Cavaliers 99: Agent Zero Loves Goooold

I guess forgetting to post an open thread is lucky.

Either that, or gold jerseys do something to Gilbert Arenas and the rest of the Wizards, because that was about as satisfying a win as this team has had in a while. The score may be 111-99, but that looks a lot closer than it really was, because Cleveland went on a pointless 14-0 nothing run to close the game.

I said yesterday that despite the loss to Detroit, there were some positive signs. The Wizards shot poorly even by their standards for two straight games, and you had to expect that to turn around simply by the law of averages. The perimeter defense was better Friday, and the Wizards were able to win the rebounding battle. The only thing stopping the Wizards was their own shooting, which was bound to improve after three off nights in a row.

One need not look further than at Arenas to see the difference in shooting yesterday. Arenas was on fire, scoring 45 points and draining 7 of 11 threes. With Larry Hughes injured, there was nobody that could guard Arenas yesterday. Cleveland put LeBron James on Arenas for a stretch, and we all know that the King leaves a little to be desired on the defensive end. Combine all that with the home-court advantage, and it's no surprise that Arenas went off last night.

DeShawn Stevenson was also solid yesterday, with 15 points and really solid perimeter defense. The Wizards did allow Cleveland to shoot 47 percent from the floor, but for the most part, it was guys like Damon Jones and Sasha Pavlovic that had success. Drew Gooden, who gave the Wizards so much trouble in the first matchup, was nowhere to be found. Cleveland also really missed Larry Hughes, who was the real star of the opening day win. The Wizards defended the three well (31 percent) and forced guys like Jones and Pavlovic to beat them. It was a strong defensive scheme and it worked extremely well, especially in the third quarter, where the Wizards made their big run.

I hate to be the guy shooting down all the optimists, but despite blowing out a really good Cavaliers team, the Wizards didn't answer two of the biggest questions surrounding this team.

First, can this team win if Arenas is not shooting the ball well. In the Wizards' four wins this year, Arenas has scored 45, 43, 40, and 29 points. The best teams find ways to win even if their star is having an off night, and I still haven't seen any sign that the Wizards can win if Arenas is struggling. I don't expect Arenas' Jekyll and Hyde routine to continue, but there are going to be plenty of games where he doesn't produce. When that happens, the Wizards need to buckle down and figure out how to grind their way to wins. Caron Butler and Stevenson need to be consistent defensively and still be able to find ways to produce enough offensive scoring.

Secondly, and most importantly, this wasn't a road win. We know the Wizards can destroy even the best teams at home. We know the Wizards shoot better and somehow play much more aggressively in the Verizon Center than they do on the road. Obviously, the Wizards couldn't answer this question tonight, but when you watch this team play at home, it's easy to wonder where this type of effort and scrappiness is when they hit the road. If the Wizards are serious about competing, they need to start winning key road games. This next stretch of games is going to be huge for the Wizards. They desperately need a big win, especially against either Dallas or Houston.

A couple more thoughts:

• I wasn't sure what I thought about the gold jerseys when I first heard about them, but I know now. They're horrendous. Get them out of there. I'm sure UniWatch will be all over these jerseys soon, but I can't understand how gold and black actually makes sense. The colors clash incredibly. A gold jersey like that is blinding on its own, but when you combine it with black, it makes it so much worse. However, if the Wizards contiue to play this well in gold, then I'm all for the unis.
• I'm glad to hear Jarvis Hayes is okay. That spill looked pretty bad, and it was scary to watch him be carted off. Les Bullez is all over Hayes, saying he should have known better than to put himself in that situation. I have to respectfully disagree. There's no way you can expect a competitor like Hayes who is there to bring energy off the bench to suddenly let a guy go right by him. If this was a situation where Cleveland was down 7 with 45 seconds left, where an And 1 would have really hurt, I can understand, but when it's that much of a blowout, the score doesn't even matter anyway. It's unfortunate that Hayes got hurt, but you can't just let someone drive by you without even trying to stop him. I'm happy Jarvis is okay. Now just stop shooting bad jumpers! [edit] Hayes is day-to-day, which probably means he'll miss two months.
  

Postgame thoughts? What did you think of the win?

Community Projection: Jarvis Hayes

It seems like it happens every year. Jarvis Hayes starts the year showing lots of promise, displaying strong shooting and instant offense. Then, invariably, Hayes breaks his kneecap and is gone for the rest of the year. His games played has gone down from 70 to 54 to 21 in his three NBA seasons. Hayes actually started many games over Caron Butler last season and played well, but he was lost for the season very early in the year again. This year, the Wizards could really use him back healthy.

Last Season: 21 games, 24.6 minutes, 9.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 36.1 % three-point percentage

My Projection: 62 games, 21.3 minutes, 8.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 39 % three-point percentage

With Stevenson and Antonio Daniels taking up most of the crunch-time minutes on the wing, I expect Hayes to see a slight drop in minutes, thereby leading to less point production. However, this drop in minutes will allow Hayes to play in more games this season. I think it's a little presumptuous to expect Hayes to play a full 82 games, but 62 games seems pretty reasonable to me.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Hayes' numbers in each of those categories.

My Wizards Preview is up!

Check out my Washington Wizards preview for NBA Blog Previews here.

Feel free to discuss it either here or there.

[edit]: It's been a really hectic week with two midterms and such, but now that it's over, I'm going to re-post the entire thing here. Enjoy!

The psyche of a Washington basketball supporter is one that is unlike any other in the NBA. Let’s consider the history. One playoff series win from the end of the Bullets Fever era of 78-79 to 2005. No seasons with more than 45 wins since 1979. 10 different head coaches in the last 10 years. One ridiculous name change. These are just a few of the things that drive a Washington fan crazy.

But it’s not just that the Washington franchise has been in a constant state of mediocrity for the better part of the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s. Unlike their mediocre brethren in the Clippers, the Wizards have always had some sort of a novelty among the league. Consider that former stars like Spencer Haywood, Gus Williams, Moses Malone, Bernard King, Rod Strickland, Mitch Richmond, Charles Oakley, and, of course, Michael Jordan all teased the Bullets/Wizards with their star power at the end of their careers. On top of that, whenever the Wizards got it right with a promising young player, they either got hurt (Chris Webber, Gheorghe Muresan), were traded too early (Manute Bol, Muggsy Bogues, Rasheed Wallace, Webber, Richard Hamilton), or underperformed (Juwan Howard, Calbert Cheaney, Kwame Brown). For years, Washington D.C. was essentially the league’s one-stop shop for aging veterans and underachieving youngsters.

If you ever wonder why the guys at Wizznutzz act like they do, try being a fan of Les Bullez for your entire life.

Why do I bring this all up? Because for the first time in ages, the Wizards actually have a real team that should be taken seriously. Sure, Gilbert Arenas is a strange dude, but the guy can play, and he has a ton of help on the court and in the front office. There’s reason for the hometown faithful to be excited about this team, so while I may not be as crazily optimistic as some of the previews so far, I’ll certainly struggle at times to contain my excitement.

Last Year/Offseason

When we last left the Wizards, they came out on the short end of a compelling six-game series against the Cleveland LeBrons…I mean Cavaliers. This loss followed a season where the Wizards were like the yo-yo in Gilbert Arenas’ head; up again, down again, up again, down again, and back up again. Early-season wins against San Antonio and Detroit were the bookends for a five-game losing streak. After falling to 12-18, the Wiz picked it up and put themselves in a prime position to match their 45 wins from the year before until a late 5 game losing streak pushed them down to 42 wins. You never knew which team was going to show up last year, but you knew they would be fun to watch

In the offseason, the Wizards said goodbye to Jared “The Enigma” Jeffries, letting him go to New York, where he will baffle Isaiah Thomas when healthy. In his place, the Wizards signed Darius Songalia from the Bulls and stole DeShawn Stevenson from the Magic for the league minimum. In the draft, the Wizards took two random guys from Europe who both won’t contribute this season.

The Strength of the Offense

It’s obvious that the Wizards’ strength is on the offensive end of the floor. When you have the highest scoring trio in the league for the second consecutive season, your offense is doing something right. What makes Washington particularly consistent offensively is their ability to get to the free throw line. Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antonio Daniels in particular do such a great job of getting to the charity stripe off the dribble without turning the ball over. This allowed the Wizards to finish sixth in the league in scoring ability despite finish 21st in true shooting percentage.

The great thing about this ability is that it doesn’t go away from night to night. Teams will have games where their jump shots aren’t falling. However, because the Wizards attack the basket so well off the dribble, they will rarely be subjected to off nights offensively.

Making this offense even scarier is the potential return of Jarvis Hayes from knee surgery. Without Hayes, the Wizards had trouble kicking the offense into full throttle unless each of the Big Three had monster games. Hayes adds a new dimension to the attack with his instant offense off the bench. He gives the Wizards a spot-up shooter on the wing that will benefit from Arenas’ penetration. Now, if only he could stay healthy…

The Weakness of the Defense

It’s no secret that the Wizards were poor defensively last year. They ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency last year, a ranking they need to raise about 8-10 spots in order to be a real contender.

It’s very easy to judge based on the Cleveland series that the Wizards need a physical, defensive big man to ever get to the next level. While that certainly was a problem in the playoffs, the reality is that there are bigger problems than that with this defense. Getting a big man like Joel Pryzbilla in free agency would not have been the best way to fix the problem.

The biggest problem was that the Wizards allowed far too many open looks at the basket in games. Had the Cavaliers’ shooters been playing at the top of their games, the result of the series could have been worse. For all of Arenas’ strengths offensively, he tends to drift off his man when he’s defending off the ball, allowing them open shot after open shot. Butler struggled with this problem as well, although he’s a much better on the ball defender than Agent Zero. While they both have been extremely dedicated to improving this in training camp, we have yet to see it translate to actual game play, although Arenas’ insistent to guard LeBron in the teams’ preseason game against Cleveland is certainly a good sign.

The other major weakness was on-the-ball defense. Jeffries was hyped as a great perimeter defender, but his sole value was his versatility rather than his man-to-man defense. Butler is a tough defender, but he lapses a lot of the time. DeShawn Stevenson should help, but on the ball defense remains a significant worry.

The Verdict

Many people have the Wizards pegged for a similar season, with a possible drop out of the playoffs. Naturally, I disagree with those predictions. There are those who wonder aloud whether the defense can ever be decent, and while those are legitimate claims, we need not look further than Dallas last season and Seattle the season before to illustrate that teams can improve their defense without making significant changes to the team’s core. In addition, the Wizards had the point differential of a 46-47 win team last year, and I don’t expect them to be as unlucky again. They’ll win more of those close games this season.

I don’t think the Wizards can contend for the title, but I think they will improve on last season. Stevenson gives the Wizards much-needed toughness on the wing, and Hayes’ return will make the offense even better. If Darius Songaila can come back healthy, the Wizards’ frontcourt will also be deeper than before. Throw in anything from Andray Blatche and a healthy return of Etan Thomas, and the frontcourt suddenly isn’t so shallow anymore.

Finally, I expect Caron Butler to have a monster year this season. It took the Wizards half a year to figure out how to use him effectively, and it was no accident that the Wizards’ 5 game losing streak at the end of the season occurred without Butler in the lineup. If he can stay healthy, he should approach 20 points a game and provide strong perimeter defense. It feels like we’ve been waiting on Butler for ages, but with a starting spot ensured and increased familiarity with Eddie Jordan’s offense, I see Butler finally showing his full potential.

There are certainly concerns, yes. The Wizards still aren’t particularly deep and I am concerned about the frontcourt depth, the defense, and the lack of a pure point guard. In addition, Orlando and their young players scare the crap out of me, and Miami is always the Wizards’ kryptonite. However, in the end I think this team will make the city go crazy with basketball fever for the first time in over a quarter of a century.

Predicted Record: 50-32, fourth seed in the East

[image via Yay! Sports]

5 Things To Watch in Training Camp

In honor of the beginning of Wizards training camp (kicking off with Gilbert Arenas' amusing comments), here are a few things that Bullets Fever thinks you should keep an eye on as a Wizards fan.

1. The shooting guard situation

The Wizards, barring injury, have 4/5 of their starting lineup set. Gilbert Arenas will start at point guard, Caron Butler will start at one wing spot, Antwan Jamison will start at the 4, and Brendan Haywood, for better or for worse, will start at center. The one spot that is unresolved right now is at shooting guard. Last season, Butler was the starting shooting guard and Jared Jeffries started as a glorified small forward. Now that Jeffries is with the Knicks, there is an opening next to Butler, who seems likely to slide from the 2 to the 3.

It appears at this point that the battle will be between holdover Jarvis Hayes and newcomer DeShaun Stevenson. Stevenson started all 82 games for Orlando last year and gives the Wizards a strong wing defender and a much more versatile shooting guard than they had last year. But don't count out Hayes, who was given the starting job over Butler last year before hurting his knee. All indications are that he's all the way back and is having no problems with his surgically repaired knee. This should be a battle throughout the end of camp.

My early prediction is that Stevenson will win the job. His perimeter defense will be essential in stopping guys like Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Vince Carter. While he is limited offensively, scoring should not be a problem with Arenas, Jamison, and Butler in tow. I see Stevenson being a Trenton Hassell or Quinton Ross-type player this season. Hayes will ultimately be an extremely important player off the bench, and in my opinion, it suits him well. The Wizards struggled with their depth last season, playing only 7 guys when the playoffs rolled around. In getting Hayes back, they are increasing their depth and scoring punch from their bench. When the Wizards need an offensive spark, they should turn to Hayes.

This situation should not be resolved for some time, but keep an eye on it. Fantasy owners should root for Hayes to get the job, but in my opinion, the Wizards will be better off with Stevenson in the starting lineup.

2. How will minutes be divided in the frontcourt?

It became evident in the playoff loss to the Cavaliers last season that the Wizards needed to increase their toughness up front. Over the offseason, the only thing the Wizards did in free agency to solve that problem was to sign Darius Songalia, who was recently profiled in the Post. Improvements, therefore, must come from within, and with Songalia, Jamison, Brendan Haywood, Michael Ruffin, Etan Thomas, and possibly Calvin Booth or non-roster invite Robert "Tractor" Traylor all in the mix, the division of minutes should be interesting.

It seems pretty obvious that Jamison and Haywood will start. From the looks of things, Songalia will be the first big man off the bench. He doesn't directly address the toughness issue, but is a very good fit in the Wizards' system and, at the very least, provides the Wizards with the frontcourt depth they really lacked last season. He should play a lot next to Jamison this season.

Beyond Songalia, it's anyone's guess what happens. The Wizards could really use a resurgence from Etan Thomas. Of all the players on the team, Thomas is the closest thing to the Wes Unseld/Ben Wallace-type junkyard dog. He has struggled to stay healthy and be productive since signing a big contract after the 2004 season, but he is completely healthy now and hopefully can become a key frontcourt reserve. In lieu of a Thomas resurgence, it appears the Wizards may once again have to rely on Michael Ruffin. Ruffin plays hard, but is undersized and is not much of a defensive presence. For the Wizards sake, they better hope that Thomas can come back and play meaningful minutes this season.

3. Is the defense really improved?

The players seem to be saying all the right things now, but will we see a better defensive team this season? Signing Stevenson will upgrade the perimeter defense significantly. Jeffries was valuable for his versatility, but he struggled guarding the top perimeter scorers in the game. With Stevenson and Caron Butler, the Wizards have two tough perimeter defenders that will make things difficult for the top guards in the East.

Most people are looking to the frontcourt for defensive improvements, but Michael Wilbon says that improvement needs to start with the team's star, Gilbert Arenas. If Arenas is committed to raising his defensive game, the Wizards will follow him and become tougher and meaner. I had never really thought of it that way, but it's probably true. Arenas does need to become a better defender at the point position.

However, the interior defense is not simply going to become a top unit overnight just because Gilbert Arenas says so. Songalia says that he is going to bang and do the dirty work, but he averaged only 4 rebounds per game last year. Getting more out of Etan Thomas would be nice, but it's probably a bonus at this point. In the end, it has to be a group effort. Songalia needs to become a slightly better rebounder, Brendan Haywood needs to be more consistent, and Thomas needs to get back to the level he was at two years ago. If all three of those players have good training camps, I will be confident. Otherwise, we may see the same problems we saw in the playoffs last season.

4. The mentality

This training camp has a different feel to it already. Players have come out and said that the Wizards are serious about being an Eastern Conference contender. Arenas and Butler both underwent grueling training over the offseason, and both should be better players this year. Will this positive energy continue? My guess is that it will. This team seems more highly motivated than any Wizards team in history. Hopefully it will translate on the court.

5. Gilbert Arenas

Certainly, we should keep track of Arenas' post-practice interview sessions to see what he'll say, as he's already provided a few gems. Other than that, however, Arenas will be a key player in training camp. He is the leader of this team and supposidely is going to play with a chip on his shoulder. What is that ultimately going to mean? Will he simply try to stick it to the Blazers and Suns and work simply on his scoring, or will we see him becoming a more complete player this season? Is he committed to his defense and spreading the ball around? We all know Arenas can score with the best players in the league, but is this the year he really becomes an all-around star like Kobe or Wade? So far, it seems like it will be, but you never know with Gilbert. This will certainly be something to keep an eye on all season.

Who wins the starting shooting guard spot? Who should see the majority of the minutes there?

Sunday Links

Some quick Sunday links for your reading pleasure.

-Gilbert Arenas has apparently left his agent, according to this Washington Post article.

Washington Wizards guard Gilbert Arenas plans to part ways with longtime agent Dan Fegan , an NBA source confirmed yesterday. A story saying Arenas had left Fegan was first reported on http://www.realgm.com . Fegan negotiated the six-year, $65 million contract that Arenas signed with the Wizards in August 2003.

Arenas declined to comment when reached by phone yesterday. However, a league source close to Arenas said the two-time all-star is in the process of filing paperwork to sever ties with Fegan and planned to wait "at least a year" before selecting new representation.

It's certainly interesting that Gilbert is going to play out the year without an agent. I honestly think this is another reason to expect a fully focused Gilbert Arenas all season. Since his bad experience with the US National Team, he has seemed fully focused on having the very best season of his career. I'll take the over on 30 points per game, please.

More intriguing was this part of the article.

"Also yesterday, the Wizards announced that a 60-by-20 billboard featuring Arenas's likeness will be unveiled this morning on New York Avenue in Northwest Washington."

Suh-weet! I can't wait to see what that looks like. We are all witnesses to Agent Zero.

-Michael Lee of the Post also has an interesting article on Jarvis Hayes and his struggle coming back from injury. The Wizards missed Hayes' instant offense at the end of last year and could really use a full recovery from him. I personally wouldn't give him the starting shooting guard spot, however. Start Stevenson and his defense and use Hayes for his instant offense off the bench. The Wizards wasted so much time starting Hayes and bringing Caron Butler off the bench last year. Hayes is good for that spark, but I think he's not really suited for starting.

-Glad to see that Wizznutzz is back with regular posting. We've all missed their humor and hillareous writing over the offseason. Also, notice how they linked to the very same video that is this blog's namesake. Interesting, don't you think?

-Jeff over at CelticsBlog.com is running a great series of NBA previews featuring team blogs and general NBA blogs from all over the internet. It is still up in the air as to whether you will see a Bullets Fever Wizards preview on the site ([edit] see the end of this entry), but you will definetly see a Wiz preview from Gilbert's Arena and a series of fantastic NBA previews from the people that know their teams the best. The previews started today with a look at the Boston Celtics. Check out previews there from CelticsBlog.com, Celtics 17, and LOY's Palace.

-Hoops Addict takes a look at current Wizard Juan Carlos Navarro. Honestly, the Wizards have to decide soon whether they want to bring Navarro onto the team. After his performance in the FIBA World Championships, now would be a good time, even with the Wizards' depth on the wing.

-Basketbawful discusses Phil Jackson "sticking by" former Wizards #1 draft pick Kwame Brown. Whatever. He's their problem now.

-Happy one year anniversary to Chris Clarke at End of the Bench. He also has a funny post on Dwight Howard's ridiculous claim that the Magic will win the NBA Title.

That's all. Have an easy fast if you're observing Yom Kippur, the Jewish day of atonement.

What do you think is the effect of Gilbert Arenas leaving his agent? Does it mean anything in the grand scheme of things?

[EDIT] I'll be posting the official Washington Wizards 2006/07 preview here on October 24, and you should also see it on the NBA Blog Previews site that day with Gilbert's Arena's preview.