Wizards 106, Mavericks 97: HIBACHI!

For three quarters, the Wizards played possibly the best game they played in the last two years. A subpar fourth quarter made the Wizards’ performance look a lot worse than it really was.

The Wizards did two things very well. First, they really moved the ball well offensively. When the Wizards struggle offensively, it’s because there is too much one-on-one play. With Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, the Wizards have two fantastic one-on-one guys they can depend on when the shot clock goes down, but it’s dangerous to think they can just go one-on-one every single possession. It really wasn’t surprising to see than Antawn Jamison, a guy whose production rises when he’s in the flow of the offense, had his best game of the season last night. Dallas is a tough defensive team, especially inside, so to get all those open looks was really encouraging.

The other thing the Wizards did unbelievably well was they pounded Dallas on the glass. That really shocked me when I looked at the numbers. The Wizards outrebounded a very good Dallas rebounding team 53-39! That’s really solid, especially considering Dallas’ incredible offensive rebounding ability. Etan Thomas was an absolute monster last night with 10 points, 11 boards, and that one block on Devin Harris. That block was a play that really set the tone for the entire game. The Wizards showed tons of energy on defense and locked down on a really explosive Dallas team. Jason Terry, Josh Howard, and Devin Harris shot a combined 5 for 23. If you do that, you’ll beat Dallas.

While Arenas was huge with 38 points and 8 assists, (you listening, Michael Redd! You can score a shitload of points and be a good playmaker. It’s possible) the key to this game was Jamison. Unsilent pointed out a couple days ago that the Wizards are a completely different team when Jamison is playing well, and tonight showed it. Jamison’s the one guy that really needs to get his points in the flow of the offense. If the offense becomes too much based on one-on-one play, Jamison ends up trying to overcompensate and jacks up bad 19 foot jumpers. This also prevents him from getting inside for rebounds. When the offense is moving the ball well, Jamison is much more successful, and when Jamison is successful offensively, he’ll get in there and grab key rebounds. The play he made to seal the game at the end was a prime example of this.

However, I hate to say it again, but this game didn’t really prove all that much. The Wizards are 7-2 at home and could very easily be 9-0. We know they can play up to their potential against anyone in the Verizon Center. Now, they have to prove it and play well on the road. The offense needs to keep moving the ball well instead of stagnating and watching Arenas or Butler go 1 on 5. With road games against the Knicks and the Sixers on the docket this week, the Wizards have a great chance to finally get a road win.

In other news, Gilbert Arenas is going to be signing autographs/discussing his new shoe over at the NBA store in New York City. This wouldn’t ordinarily be newsworthy, but, apparently, Dan Steinberg, Unsilent Majority, Will Leitch, SLAM, and With Leather are all going to be there. Steinberg is calling this event a “Blogocalypse.” If anyone else is planning on being there, I’d really like to hear about it.

Also, Steinberg pops the “what if you could pretend you guys are at home when you’re on the road” question, and gets a ton of player responses. In an earlier Bog entry, Post Wizards beat writer Ivan Carter wondered aloud, "Is there a Shakespeare tragedy about an army that was great on its own soil but couldn't win on the road?" Clearly, this road thing is getting old and the players really have to find a way to break through. It better come this week with the Knicks and Sixers on the docket.

Finally, if you were at the game yesterday, let me know and send me your postgame thoughts. I’ll put them up here on the blog when I get them. E-mail me at pradam@brandeis.edu.

Postgame thoughts? Please someone be positive for now!

Quick Hits

SLAM is giving Wizards center Etan Thomas an opportunity to write a regular column for the online section of their website. In his first article, Thomas discusses an interaction he had with a referee and his reactions to the referee's surprise that Thomas writes poetry.

We were playing a home game against Cleveland, and after a timeout a referee with dark, slicked-back hair (who shall remain nameless) approached me. He said that he had heard that I write poetry, have a book, speak at universities, am into politics, etcetera, and he asked me if this was true.

I replied, Yes.

To my surprise, he responded: “You’re not as dumb as you look.”

I turned toward my teammate Antawn Jamison, who also heard the exchange, and we both looked back at this ref with eyes of bewilderment, as if to say that we couldn’t have possibly heard him right.

He saw that I was in no way amused, without even the slightest hint of a smile, and attempted to clean up his statement, saying, “Well I think it’s great, I could never do anything like that…” I simply nodded my head and returned to the game.

Sometimes someone can make a statement that is so unbelievably blatant that it renders you speechless, left without a response or reaction, until you think about it at a later date. This was one of those times for me.

The rest of the article is very interesting and it ends with one of Thomas' trademark poems. Thomas is incredibly articulate and I recommend this column to any NBA fan.

Also, on the latest "Daily Fix" podcast from The Basketball Jones, they address the Wizards' disappointing 4-9 start. Skeets and Tas mostly attribute the struggles of the team to defense. Tas brings up the loss of Jared Jeffries, while Skeets discussed the overall team mindset and the lack of rebounding. They also touch on the loss of Darius Songaila and wonder whether Gilbert Arenas and his antics are a distraction.

Speaking of TBJ, Lowpost's Jason Gurney interviewed Skeets in the latest of his "Meet the Blogger" series.

Personally, I don't think a lack of defense can explain why the Wizards seem worse than last year. It can explain why they aren't any better, but defense was a problem last year and the Wizards still were a 42 win team with a point differential of a 47 win one. The problem to me really seems to be the complete inability to put together a complete game. The defense has played well in some games, the offense has played well in some games, but neither have come at the same time much this year. This is a team that could really use a shot in the arm off the bench to put the pressure off their starters.

Also, let's wait to see how the Wizards perform with this easier stretch coming up. If they can't get back close to .500 by the turn of the calendar year, then we can honestly say that the problems are substantial. Right now, it's much more difficult to tell.

Why Rebounding Matters and Why Small-Ball Needs It

2007 was supposed to be the year where small-ball revolutionized the game of basketball, but so far, there is a stigma that it's failing. Already, we're seeing analysts like Scoop Jackson and Charles Barkely calling out the Phoenix Suns for their failure to make small-ball work.

So far, we've mostly seen speculation about Phoenix's lack of chemistry and inability to defend. The Amare situation is screwing with their heads, Boris Diaw is out of shape, they don't like playing together anymore, Jalen Rose does nothing, etc. It's this humble bloggers' opinion that all this gibberish is worthless, and the real problem lies is something much more simple.

Rebounding.

6 games does not signify a trend, but this was staggering to me.

Top 5 Rebounding Margins:

1. Cleveland: +10.5 (5-2)
2. Utah: +10.1 (6-1)
3. Houston: +6.1 (5-2)
4. NOOCH: +5.9 (4-3)
5. Orlando: +5.7 (5-3)

Bottom 5 Rebounding Margins:
1. Golden State: -8.0 (4-3)
2. Phoenix: -7.4 (2-5)
3. Milwaukee: -6.6 (2-5)
4. Minnesota: -6.5 (2-4)
5. Toronto: -6.0 (2-4)

What can we learn from this? Good teams need good rebounders. Even the good top scoring teams, excluding Golden State, rebound the ball decently. Atlanta is -0.3, Seattle is only -1.9, the Clippers are +2.6, and the Lakers are +2.1. The three teams doing poorly in the top 10 in scoring (Phoenix, Denver, and Milwaukee) all have negative rebound margins. Phoenix doesn't rebound well and it's killing them, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

Then, there are the Wizards, who are 3-3 with the sixth worst rebounding margin (-5.5) and the league's highest scoring offense (107.8 points per game). Washington has been a painfully average team all year, save for their blowout against Indiana. Take away that game, and the point differential has been -6.
As mentioned above, other up-tempo teams that succeed are ones that have rebounders. Atlanta has Zaza Pachulia and Josh Smith, two athletic, strong rebounders. Seattle has Nick Collison, a consumate tough guy and rebounder. The Clippers have two great big guys, and the Lakers are getting a ton of rebounds from Andrew Bynum.

The Wizards? Well, Etan Thomas is a good shot blocker and a tough guy, but he's not a great rebounder. Brendan Haywood is a taller version of Thomas, and Michael Ruffin plain sucks at everything. The end result has been that the Wizards go as Gilbert Arenas goes this season. When he's feeling it, the Wizards win; when he's off, they lose. If this happens all year, Washington will go 41-41 and miss the playoffs.

The team needs to find a consistent rebounding presence. If no trades are made, I'd advocate more playing time for Calvin Booth, as he at least will rebound better than Michael Ruffin. However, there's a trade that can happen, in my opinion.

Commenter Josh mentioned this briefly, and I'll add to it. Wait a month, and then trade Haywood to Denver for Reggie Evans and DerMarr Johnson. Haywood gives Denver insurance when Marcus Camby inevitably goes down, and Evans and Johnson are simply bit parts for them that they can afford to give up.

Would this work now? Hell no. Denver has no reason to do this, and they actually can't until December 15 anyway. But what happens when Camby goes down? Francisco Elson is in San Antonio, and Nene is still rehabbing his knee. They should be desperate for size, and Washington has it. So while this trade is not going to happen now, and may not happen in the end, I'm a fan of it.

For his efforts, Josh will be posting on here later this week. This doesn't mean other offers weren't good by any means (Haywood for Steven Hunter and parts intrigued me, as did Haywood for Dan Gadzuric). Still, rumors and speculation make this stuff fun, even if it's probably not plausible. So please, if you have a trade idea, shout it out, and I'll put up a post about it if I feel so inclined.

Do you think this trade work? Do you think the Wizards even need rebounding as bad as I think they do? Is a trade the answer to solve the problems, in your opinion?

Community Projection: Etan Thomas

It's safe to say that last year was a lost year for Etan Thomas. After an injury-filled 2004/05, he never got back on track, falling completely out of the rotation by the end of the year. The Wizards could have really used him in the Cleveland series, but he was so bad by the end of the year that Michael Ruffin was higher in the rotation. In the offseason, however, Thomas shocked everyone by winning the center job from Brendan Haywood and proved it with a strong performance against the Cavaliers.

Last year: 71 games, 15.7 minutes, 4.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.0 blocks

My projection: 70 games, 24.7 minutes, 7.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.7 blocks

Thomas' projected numbers are fairly similar to his 2004 numbers, with only a dip in scoring. I figure that since the team has so many more scorers than they did in 2004, Thomas shouldn't get nearly as many opportunities to score. With that being said, 7 boards in 24 minutes is pretty solid, as is 1.7 blocks. I expect him to be a key part of the squad as long as he's healthy.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Thomas' numbers in each of these categories.

It's Official: Thomas to Start Opening Night

Raise your hand if you saw this one coming.

After ending the season out of the Wizards' rotation for their playoff series with Cleveland, Etan Thomas has officially been named the starting center over incumbent Brendan Haywood for the season's opener.

To say this was a shock is definetly an understatement.

This presents an interesting situation for Haywood. Les Bullez says that it's about time to get Haywood out of there.

Maybe Haywood just isn’t that good and with 4 scorers on the floor, they need defense and rebounding and not a 7 footer who loves to take fadeaway jumpers.

Haywood has struggled because he doesn't really fit the Wizards' new up-tempo style. When he played alongside Michael Jordan, Haywood was perfect because all he had to do was focus on rebounding and defense in the half-court. As long as he took up space, it made Jordan's job easier. Now, however, he tends to bog down the Wizards' high-octane attack, especially offensively. He hasn't really developed a good post game and doesn't run the floor as well as he should.

At the same time, Haywood's defensive ability is significantly underrated. His length frustrates many centers, particularly Zydrunas Ilgauskas, he of the Wizards' Game 1 opponent. As a defensive rebounder, Haywood is pretty decent as long as he maintains concentration. The problem, once again, is that he just doesn't fit into the Wizards' style.

In Haywood's defense (I guess), reader and brother Josh offers this comment.

did you hear etan has been named starting center? I don't like it, he's better suited coming off the bench a junkyard

I'm guessing that if Josh were to elaborate, he'd point to Etan's durability issues since he signed the big contract in 2004. More specifically, I think he'd also say that Thomas is best suited as a change-of-pace guy— a junkyard dog type who comes in during spurts and gives the Wizards energy and tenacity up front. The argument is that if you start Thomas, you lose some of the spark and raise the issue of durability. I feel like this is true, but I also think Thomas is more durable than it seems. He missed half of 2005, but has played in at least 67 games in every other year. Last season, he just simply wasn't good enough to get a regular rotation spot. From what I've been reading, it appears like he actually earned the job, showing that he's probably playing at his highest level in years. Essentially, Thomas' size is a much bigger issue than his lack of durability.

Ultimately, Eddie Jordan's decision culminates two years of washing away the Michael Jordan era and ushering in a whole new type of team. Haywood was the last relic of that team, and now that Thomas is starting, his role will be reduced. I still think the Wizards should hold onto Haywood for his size, but I'd give most of the minutes to Thomas. I'm a little worried about how Haywood will respond to being a reserve, but considering both guys should see the court plenty, I would be disappointed if he continues to hold a grudge. There's really no reason to trade him, as he's a 7 footer that has an affordable salary. I just hope his attitude will be better than in the past.

What's your take on the announcement? Is Thomas really a better option than Haywood?

So Eddie, What's the Rotation?

[As a sidenote, be sure to check out the must-see Bullets Fever team preview here and here.]

The Wizards closed the preseason with a 110-105 win over the Hawks and a 101-94 loss to the Pistons, meaning that they ended with a 4-4 record.

Interestingly enough, when you look back at the 5 things I said to watch out for, they were either answered very quickly or not answered at all. Stevenson took the shooting guard spot right away. Songaila's injury raises questions about the division of minutes in the frontcourt, we still don't know about defense or Gilbert Arenas, and the mentality really was only a factor early on.

The two biggest stories were ones I didn't anticipate.

First, it sounds like Etan Thomas is going to start over Brendan Haywood at center. At the very least, Thomas appears to have the upper hand after a really strong performance against Detroit. 3 blocked shots in 12 minutes speaks loudly, even if it was the preseason. From what I've observed, it doesn't appear like this is just a message to Haywood anymore. Both players have had pretty good preseasons, so for Thomas to wrestle the job from Haywood, he had to really impress Jordan. From the sound of it, he has done just that.

When I went on the Hoops Addict podcast, I talked about how Thomas may be the key to the season for the Wizards. Of all the guys on the roster, Thomas is the closest thing to the 4/5 athletic center that an up-tempo team really needs. When Haywood is in the game, he slows down the Wizards' offensive sets and isn't all that great in transitioning from defense to the fast break. If Thomas is all the way back to his pre-contract level of 2004, the Wizards will be a significantly better team. He's faster than Haywood, a better rebounder than Haywood, and, from the looks of it, a better defensive center than Haywood. If you ask me, the news that Thomas has earned the starting job is fantastic for Wizards fans.

If Haywood does indeed start on the bench, I wonder whether the Wizards are admitting to themselves that he has wasted their time. Haywood doesn't strike me as the type of player who would want to come off the bench. He doesn't provide the same type of quick spark that Thomas could provide, instead relying on defensive consistency and a stabilizing presence in the middle. Thomas and James Lang's preseasons may indicate that the team is heading in another direction inside. I severely doubt Haywood will be traded--after all, he's the only 7 footer on the team--but he may have reduced minutes.

The one trade I'd like to see happen would be with Memphis. The Grizzlies have long been searching for a traditional big guy in the middle, and they have classic tweenter Stromile Swift stuck behind Gasol (when healthy) and the rest of the frontcourt. Swift is a miscast in Memphis, but his style is perfectly suited for the Wizards up-tempo game. Wouldn't a Haywood for Swift swap make some sense? The problem is salary, but the Wiz could throw in a guy like Calvin Booth or Donnell Taylor to even things up.

Second, and more significantly, the Wizards have had significantly more success with the starters in the game than with the reserves. Preseason games have followed the same type of script. Starters give Wizards the lead, reserves cough up the lead, rinse and repeat. There are two ways of looking at this. One way is to say that it doesn't matter much, because the players on the floor were guys like Donnell Taylor and Andray Blatche, players who aren't a part of the regular rotation anyeay. The other way is to say that it does matter, because injuries and the long season are both going to force these guys into action. I tend to lean closer to the second view.

I'm particularly concerned about Andray Blatche. After a great summer league, he looked lost this preseason. The Wizards let go of Jared Jeffries partly because they believed Blatche could at least help to fill the void. After this preseason, I'm not so sure he's ready to play much at all. Making matters worse is the Songaila injury, which sounds like it could bother him all year. With Songaila out, the Wizards need Blatche even more than before. Up front, the rotation now is Haywood, Thomas, and Michael Ruffin. That's not going to get it done. Blatche was supposed to fill the void, but it appears he's not ready yet.

The lone pleasant surprise deep off the bench has been Roger Mason, a personal favorite of mine back when he played for Montrose Christian and Virginia. Mason's a local boy if you've ever seen one, and it looks like he's making Donnell Taylor expendable. If he can carry over his strong preseason to the regular season, he could even make Jarvis Hayes expendable. He's a strong shooter in rhythm, has international playing experience, and has worked hard to become a better ball-handler. If he can keep this up, it stings the blow of passing on Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo in the draft.

Here's my projected rotation. I'm assuming Mike Hall is the final cut, as he's injured and Mason pretty much makes him redundant. I don't imagine they'll cut James Lang considering the lack of frontcourt depth, so Hall is a pretty logical cut.

PG: Arenas/Daniels/Taylor
SG: Stevenson/Mason
SF: Butler/Hayes/Blatche
PF: Jamison/Songaila/Ruffin
C: Thomas/Haywood/Lang/Booth

Ideally, they'd cut Calvin Booth, but he is under contract. If Songaila wasn't hurt, I'd cut Lang, but with the injury, Hall makes perfect sense. Lang's been good this preseason and if the Wizards decide to trade Haywood, he may end up playing a role.

What's been the biggest story of the Wizards' preseason in your mind? Do you think the Wizards have shown progress in solving their most important questions?

My Wizards Preview is up!

Check out my Washington Wizards preview for NBA Blog Previews here.

Feel free to discuss it either here or there.

[edit]: It's been a really hectic week with two midterms and such, but now that it's over, I'm going to re-post the entire thing here. Enjoy!

The psyche of a Washington basketball supporter is one that is unlike any other in the NBA. Let’s consider the history. One playoff series win from the end of the Bullets Fever era of 78-79 to 2005. No seasons with more than 45 wins since 1979. 10 different head coaches in the last 10 years. One ridiculous name change. These are just a few of the things that drive a Washington fan crazy.

But it’s not just that the Washington franchise has been in a constant state of mediocrity for the better part of the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s. Unlike their mediocre brethren in the Clippers, the Wizards have always had some sort of a novelty among the league. Consider that former stars like Spencer Haywood, Gus Williams, Moses Malone, Bernard King, Rod Strickland, Mitch Richmond, Charles Oakley, and, of course, Michael Jordan all teased the Bullets/Wizards with their star power at the end of their careers. On top of that, whenever the Wizards got it right with a promising young player, they either got hurt (Chris Webber, Gheorghe Muresan), were traded too early (Manute Bol, Muggsy Bogues, Rasheed Wallace, Webber, Richard Hamilton), or underperformed (Juwan Howard, Calbert Cheaney, Kwame Brown). For years, Washington D.C. was essentially the league’s one-stop shop for aging veterans and underachieving youngsters.

If you ever wonder why the guys at Wizznutzz act like they do, try being a fan of Les Bullez for your entire life.

Why do I bring this all up? Because for the first time in ages, the Wizards actually have a real team that should be taken seriously. Sure, Gilbert Arenas is a strange dude, but the guy can play, and he has a ton of help on the court and in the front office. There’s reason for the hometown faithful to be excited about this team, so while I may not be as crazily optimistic as some of the previews so far, I’ll certainly struggle at times to contain my excitement.

Last Year/Offseason

When we last left the Wizards, they came out on the short end of a compelling six-game series against the Cleveland LeBrons…I mean Cavaliers. This loss followed a season where the Wizards were like the yo-yo in Gilbert Arenas’ head; up again, down again, up again, down again, and back up again. Early-season wins against San Antonio and Detroit were the bookends for a five-game losing streak. After falling to 12-18, the Wiz picked it up and put themselves in a prime position to match their 45 wins from the year before until a late 5 game losing streak pushed them down to 42 wins. You never knew which team was going to show up last year, but you knew they would be fun to watch

In the offseason, the Wizards said goodbye to Jared “The Enigma” Jeffries, letting him go to New York, where he will baffle Isaiah Thomas when healthy. In his place, the Wizards signed Darius Songalia from the Bulls and stole DeShawn Stevenson from the Magic for the league minimum. In the draft, the Wizards took two random guys from Europe who both won’t contribute this season.

The Strength of the Offense

It’s obvious that the Wizards’ strength is on the offensive end of the floor. When you have the highest scoring trio in the league for the second consecutive season, your offense is doing something right. What makes Washington particularly consistent offensively is their ability to get to the free throw line. Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antonio Daniels in particular do such a great job of getting to the charity stripe off the dribble without turning the ball over. This allowed the Wizards to finish sixth in the league in scoring ability despite finish 21st in true shooting percentage.

The great thing about this ability is that it doesn’t go away from night to night. Teams will have games where their jump shots aren’t falling. However, because the Wizards attack the basket so well off the dribble, they will rarely be subjected to off nights offensively.

Making this offense even scarier is the potential return of Jarvis Hayes from knee surgery. Without Hayes, the Wizards had trouble kicking the offense into full throttle unless each of the Big Three had monster games. Hayes adds a new dimension to the attack with his instant offense off the bench. He gives the Wizards a spot-up shooter on the wing that will benefit from Arenas’ penetration. Now, if only he could stay healthy…

The Weakness of the Defense

It’s no secret that the Wizards were poor defensively last year. They ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency last year, a ranking they need to raise about 8-10 spots in order to be a real contender.

It’s very easy to judge based on the Cleveland series that the Wizards need a physical, defensive big man to ever get to the next level. While that certainly was a problem in the playoffs, the reality is that there are bigger problems than that with this defense. Getting a big man like Joel Pryzbilla in free agency would not have been the best way to fix the problem.

The biggest problem was that the Wizards allowed far too many open looks at the basket in games. Had the Cavaliers’ shooters been playing at the top of their games, the result of the series could have been worse. For all of Arenas’ strengths offensively, he tends to drift off his man when he’s defending off the ball, allowing them open shot after open shot. Butler struggled with this problem as well, although he’s a much better on the ball defender than Agent Zero. While they both have been extremely dedicated to improving this in training camp, we have yet to see it translate to actual game play, although Arenas’ insistent to guard LeBron in the teams’ preseason game against Cleveland is certainly a good sign.

The other major weakness was on-the-ball defense. Jeffries was hyped as a great perimeter defender, but his sole value was his versatility rather than his man-to-man defense. Butler is a tough defender, but he lapses a lot of the time. DeShawn Stevenson should help, but on the ball defense remains a significant worry.

The Verdict

Many people have the Wizards pegged for a similar season, with a possible drop out of the playoffs. Naturally, I disagree with those predictions. There are those who wonder aloud whether the defense can ever be decent, and while those are legitimate claims, we need not look further than Dallas last season and Seattle the season before to illustrate that teams can improve their defense without making significant changes to the team’s core. In addition, the Wizards had the point differential of a 46-47 win team last year, and I don’t expect them to be as unlucky again. They’ll win more of those close games this season.

I don’t think the Wizards can contend for the title, but I think they will improve on last season. Stevenson gives the Wizards much-needed toughness on the wing, and Hayes’ return will make the offense even better. If Darius Songaila can come back healthy, the Wizards’ frontcourt will also be deeper than before. Throw in anything from Andray Blatche and a healthy return of Etan Thomas, and the frontcourt suddenly isn’t so shallow anymore.

Finally, I expect Caron Butler to have a monster year this season. It took the Wizards half a year to figure out how to use him effectively, and it was no accident that the Wizards’ 5 game losing streak at the end of the season occurred without Butler in the lineup. If he can stay healthy, he should approach 20 points a game and provide strong perimeter defense. It feels like we’ve been waiting on Butler for ages, but with a starting spot ensured and increased familiarity with Eddie Jordan’s offense, I see Butler finally showing his full potential.

There are certainly concerns, yes. The Wizards still aren’t particularly deep and I am concerned about the frontcourt depth, the defense, and the lack of a pure point guard. In addition, Orlando and their young players scare the crap out of me, and Miami is always the Wizards’ kryptonite. However, in the end I think this team will make the city go crazy with basketball fever for the first time in over a quarter of a century.

Predicted Record: 50-32, fourth seed in the East

[image via Yay! Sports]

Point-Counterpoint: The Starting Center

I'm going to start a feature here called "Point-Counterpoint." I'm going to take a look at a controversial issue regarding the Wizards, present both point of views, and ultimately make a final decision. The cool thing about this, however, is that I’ll have the two sides arguing against each other directly, meaning that we’re really just going inside someone’s head, and since it’s always fun to simulate fake conversations, we’re going to do that in this feature.

The first topic: Who starts at center for the Wizards? Brendan Haywood, or Etan Thomas? Let’s go inside Eddie Jordan’s head. Try to imagine two little fairies of Haywood and Thomas popping up on Jordan’s shoulders if you can.

Eddie Jordan: Who should I start at center this season? Arenas, Butler, Jamison, Stevenson, and who else?

Brendan Haywood fairy: Geez Eddie, the decision’s easy. I’ve started for this team since 2003. I even started for Michael Freaking Jordan! Why is this even a competition?

Etan Thomas fairy:
Wrong you are, Mr. Haywood
Steal your spot on the floor, I could
All your skills are still the same
While I’ve been focusing on my game

BH: Come on Etan, let’s get real here. Since you signed that huge contract, what exactly have you done? You put up 9 and 7 in a contract year, and since then, you’ve been crap.

ET:
Crap, my friend, is the operative word.
Because if you don’t think that’s you, you’re absurd
What have you done in your career?
7 and 6? That’s no reason to cheer

BH: Etan, this team needs a dependable big guy in the middle. I’ve averaged over 70 games a season in my career. You, my friend, have averaged 56 in that same time. In that same period, I’ve had better numbers across the board. I’ve averaged more points, rebounds, and blocks than you have. Need any more advice as to the better player, Eddie?

ET:
The times are changing, my Carolina pal
LeBron’s path to the hoop was as wide as a canal
The days of the 7 foot plodder are all but done
The ones of the athlete have just begun

BH: Look, Eddie, the choice is clear. If we’re going to keep with our prevailing theme of continuity, look no further than our Mr. Stability. That may have been a dumb rhyme, but it’s a statement of truth. I get a bad rep as an overrated crappy center, but how many teams can say they’ve had a consistent 7 footer in the middle? I’m a better defender than you think and I can score much better than Robert Frost over there.

ET:
Don’t make the mistake of listening to him
If he’s in there, our chances are grim
This isn’t your fathers’ plodding team
My style fits in better with our running scheme

Brendan wants to score like David Robinson
But that’ll get us nowhere in the postseason
We have plenty of guys to who can score the rock
So pick me, the athlete, who can actually shotblock

EJ: Could you guys be more annoying? Where’s Peter John Ramos when you need him?

Bullets Fever’s take

After reading Michael Lee's article on Haywood and Jordan's relationship, I can’t help but wonder whether this competition is real or not. Is Jordan keeping this close only to try to light a fire under Haywood? If that’s the case, I’d be really disappointed, because it would mean that Etan Thomas isn’t really all the way back to his 2004 form. Ultimately, Haywood should start, but I want to see Thomas finish more games. Haywood’s not as bad as he’s made out to be, but he’s a halfcourt center that doesn’t fit all that well to the Wizards’ running style. Thomas, while injury prone and inconsistent, is more of the type of player the Wizards should be looking for. He’s undersized, but he’s a great athlete and, most importantly, can be a real enforcer down low. If he can get back to his 2004 form, he, and not Haywood, should get the majority of the minutes at the center spot. Granted, that’s a huge if, but despite the stability of Haywood, Eddie Jordan should try to give Thomas as many chances as possible to gain the starting job.

Who do you think should win the starting center’s job? Can you really trust Etan Thomas to play to his potential?

Training Camp Thus Far

5 days of Bullets training camp is in the books, so let's take a look at how the things I posted to look out for have played out so far.

1. The shooting guard situation

As mentioned yesterday, the job belongs to DeShawn Stevenson. He has been playing the entire time with the first unit in practice, while Jarvis Hayes has been playing with the second unit. Essentially, this was never an issue.

More interesting, however, is who is going to finish games at the shooting guard spot. In the second half of last season, it was Antonio Daniels who played most of the crunch time minutes alongside Gilbert Arenas. Once the Wizards figured out how to use Daniels, he took off, attacking the basket with vigor while rarely turning the ball over.

Ivan Carter reports today that Daniels looks even better so far at camp.

Antonio Daniels looks lighter, stronger and a whole lot quicker than he did at this time last year. He's also far more comfortable with his role on this team. Remember that at this time last year, Jordan was trying to figure out where to play Daniels and Chucky Atkins. It basically took until January to figure it all out. Antonio also got off to a horrible shooting start and, in my opinion, he began to question himself instead of just playing. Now, he's just playing. He's mainly running the second team at the point guard spot. He attacks the basket like always, makes great decisions in the open court and is a leader. I also like what he's done with his jump shot. Remember how the ball tended to come out flat last year? His shot gave him little margin for error. He's getting more evelation and the ball has better arc on it now. I guess he spent the summer working on rebuilding his J and it shows. I'll talk to him about it for an upcoming story.

At the same time, aren't the Wizards going to desperately need Stevenson's perimeter defense in the fourth quarter this season? One of the reasons Daniels played so much at the end of last year was that Jared Jeffries wasn't able to guard the top 2 guards in the league when it mattered. Now that the Wizards have Stevenson, they are better equipped to play against those top wing players. Seeing as how top scoring guards are relied upon more in the fourth quarter in a close game, wouldn't it make more sense to have a defender in than a scorer like Daniels? It's definetly something to keep an eye on.

Most likely, it will depend on the game. If the Wizards have a lead, look for Stevenson to get more fourth quarter minutes. If the Wizards are behind, Daniels may play more. Either way, the Wizards better hope they can find a consistent solution, because they struggled dividing minutes in the backcourt last year.

2. How will minutes be divided in the frontcourt?

This is probably an incomplete right now. Not only is it too early to tell what the frontcourt rotation will be, but the injury to Darius Songalia complicates things. So far, Andray Blatche has been playing with the second unit in Songalia's spot, but as mentioned the other day, Eddie Jordan is tempering his optimism with the youngster.

The other intersting development is that the center spot is still unresolved. I don't know whether the fact that Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood are still fighting for the job is a testament to Haywood's inefficiency or Thomas' strong play. Was Thomas more dedicated to his fitness and therefore now injury free and effective, or was Haywood particularly lazy this offseason and therefore ineffective? As a fan, I'd hope the answer is closer to the former, but considering the way Haywood has teased everyone for 4 years without improving, it could easily be the latter. Either way, the situation is not resolved, and Carter has been surprisingly silent on the play of Thomas and Haywood thus far.

3. Is the defense really improved?

So far, it appears the Wizards are emphasizing the defense more than they ever had. Surprisingly, though, it has been the perimeter defense rather than the interior defense. Assistant coach Kevin O'Neill has been working very closely with Gilbert, Butler, Jamison, and Daniels on their off the ball defense. Carter has mentioned that the biggest problem Arenas in particular had was that he tended to watch the ball and lose his man through screens and double-teams easily. Carter specifically mentioned the Bulls game where Ben Gordon went off in the fourth quarter from the perimeter.

Essentially, the Wizards are a very similar team to the Dallas Mavericks. They are hoping to improve defense from within. O'Neill is no Avery Johnson, but his presence should mean a better overall defense this season. Hopefully, that also will translate to the interior defense, but it still seems that the Wizards are placing a premium on defense in training camp.

4. The mentality

It's early, but so far, so good. From the very beginning, the Wizards have looked focused and seem to be thinking big. Jordan predicted an Eastern Conference Finals berth before training camp and owner Abe Pollin was impressed with the dedication of the team. Today, Carter mentioned how Arenas in particular was playing with a lot of intensity, even during the scrimmages.

Also, even though it was just a training camp practice, Gilbert wanted to win. Badly. Dude was competing hard every time on both ends of the floor. The same can be said of Butler and Jamison. Coaches have to love that out of their stars.

This is the type of thing that could change with an injury or a bad preseason record, but for now, it appears the Wizards are serious about fulfilling Jordan's expectations. Carter also had this to say.

There is a quiet, unspoken air of confidence about this group that I can't quite put a finger on. It just seems that they know they are going to be good. I didn't have that same feeling last year at this time.

5. Gilbert Arenas

Arenas was his old goofy self on the first day, but since then, he's seemed very focused on improving his game. I'm sure we're going to hear more goofy quotes from Arenas during training camp, but he seems to be serious about improving his deficiencies. That's definetly a good sign.

Overall, the Wizards are having a very good training camp, but it's still early. Let's see how they deal with adversity.

In other news, I recorded an interview about the Wizards with Ryan over at Hoops Addict on his Hoops Addict podcast. Give it a listen and tell me what you think.

What are your impressions of training camp so far?

5 Things To Watch in Training Camp

In honor of the beginning of Wizards training camp (kicking off with Gilbert Arenas' amusing comments), here are a few things that Bullets Fever thinks you should keep an eye on as a Wizards fan.

1. The shooting guard situation

The Wizards, barring injury, have 4/5 of their starting lineup set. Gilbert Arenas will start at point guard, Caron Butler will start at one wing spot, Antwan Jamison will start at the 4, and Brendan Haywood, for better or for worse, will start at center. The one spot that is unresolved right now is at shooting guard. Last season, Butler was the starting shooting guard and Jared Jeffries started as a glorified small forward. Now that Jeffries is with the Knicks, there is an opening next to Butler, who seems likely to slide from the 2 to the 3.

It appears at this point that the battle will be between holdover Jarvis Hayes and newcomer DeShaun Stevenson. Stevenson started all 82 games for Orlando last year and gives the Wizards a strong wing defender and a much more versatile shooting guard than they had last year. But don't count out Hayes, who was given the starting job over Butler last year before hurting his knee. All indications are that he's all the way back and is having no problems with his surgically repaired knee. This should be a battle throughout the end of camp.

My early prediction is that Stevenson will win the job. His perimeter defense will be essential in stopping guys like Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Vince Carter. While he is limited offensively, scoring should not be a problem with Arenas, Jamison, and Butler in tow. I see Stevenson being a Trenton Hassell or Quinton Ross-type player this season. Hayes will ultimately be an extremely important player off the bench, and in my opinion, it suits him well. The Wizards struggled with their depth last season, playing only 7 guys when the playoffs rolled around. In getting Hayes back, they are increasing their depth and scoring punch from their bench. When the Wizards need an offensive spark, they should turn to Hayes.

This situation should not be resolved for some time, but keep an eye on it. Fantasy owners should root for Hayes to get the job, but in my opinion, the Wizards will be better off with Stevenson in the starting lineup.

2. How will minutes be divided in the frontcourt?

It became evident in the playoff loss to the Cavaliers last season that the Wizards needed to increase their toughness up front. Over the offseason, the only thing the Wizards did in free agency to solve that problem was to sign Darius Songalia, who was recently profiled in the Post. Improvements, therefore, must come from within, and with Songalia, Jamison, Brendan Haywood, Michael Ruffin, Etan Thomas, and possibly Calvin Booth or non-roster invite Robert "Tractor" Traylor all in the mix, the division of minutes should be interesting.

It seems pretty obvious that Jamison and Haywood will start. From the looks of things, Songalia will be the first big man off the bench. He doesn't directly address the toughness issue, but is a very good fit in the Wizards' system and, at the very least, provides the Wizards with the frontcourt depth they really lacked last season. He should play a lot next to Jamison this season.

Beyond Songalia, it's anyone's guess what happens. The Wizards could really use a resurgence from Etan Thomas. Of all the players on the team, Thomas is the closest thing to the Wes Unseld/Ben Wallace-type junkyard dog. He has struggled to stay healthy and be productive since signing a big contract after the 2004 season, but he is completely healthy now and hopefully can become a key frontcourt reserve. In lieu of a Thomas resurgence, it appears the Wizards may once again have to rely on Michael Ruffin. Ruffin plays hard, but is undersized and is not much of a defensive presence. For the Wizards sake, they better hope that Thomas can come back and play meaningful minutes this season.

3. Is the defense really improved?

The players seem to be saying all the right things now, but will we see a better defensive team this season? Signing Stevenson will upgrade the perimeter defense significantly. Jeffries was valuable for his versatility, but he struggled guarding the top perimeter scorers in the game. With Stevenson and Caron Butler, the Wizards have two tough perimeter defenders that will make things difficult for the top guards in the East.

Most people are looking to the frontcourt for defensive improvements, but Michael Wilbon says that improvement needs to start with the team's star, Gilbert Arenas. If Arenas is committed to raising his defensive game, the Wizards will follow him and become tougher and meaner. I had never really thought of it that way, but it's probably true. Arenas does need to become a better defender at the point position.

However, the interior defense is not simply going to become a top unit overnight just because Gilbert Arenas says so. Songalia says that he is going to bang and do the dirty work, but he averaged only 4 rebounds per game last year. Getting more out of Etan Thomas would be nice, but it's probably a bonus at this point. In the end, it has to be a group effort. Songalia needs to become a slightly better rebounder, Brendan Haywood needs to be more consistent, and Thomas needs to get back to the level he was at two years ago. If all three of those players have good training camps, I will be confident. Otherwise, we may see the same problems we saw in the playoffs last season.

4. The mentality

This training camp has a different feel to it already. Players have come out and said that the Wizards are serious about being an Eastern Conference contender. Arenas and Butler both underwent grueling training over the offseason, and both should be better players this year. Will this positive energy continue? My guess is that it will. This team seems more highly motivated than any Wizards team in history. Hopefully it will translate on the court.

5. Gilbert Arenas

Certainly, we should keep track of Arenas' post-practice interview sessions to see what he'll say, as he's already provided a few gems. Other than that, however, Arenas will be a key player in training camp. He is the leader of this team and supposidely is going to play with a chip on his shoulder. What is that ultimately going to mean? Will he simply try to stick it to the Blazers and Suns and work simply on his scoring, or will we see him becoming a more complete player this season? Is he committed to his defense and spreading the ball around? We all know Arenas can score with the best players in the league, but is this the year he really becomes an all-around star like Kobe or Wade? So far, it seems like it will be, but you never know with Gilbert. This will certainly be something to keep an eye on all season.

Who wins the starting shooting guard spot? Who should see the majority of the minutes there?