Forget Offense and Defense: The Bench is the Problem!

It seems wierd to say this, but let me be the first to do it.

Darius Songaila's injury and the effect it has had on the Wizards bench is the primary reason why the Wizards are 4-9.

Okay, maybe Songaila himself isn't the only culprit. Gilbert Arenas has been hot and cold all year. Antawn Jamison's shot has deserted him. The two have been inconsistent all year, and the overall defensive effort still needs some work.

Still, the injury to Songaila, while not playing a major role on its own, has exposed the Wizards absolute lack of a bench. It is my firm belief that this problem has caused all the other problems and needs to be fixed.

Commenter Mel Turpin had this to say.

One of the biggest problems with this team is a total lack of any fire power off the bench. Good teams in the NBA get thirty or forty points per game from their bench. The Wizards are lucky to get ten points.

I'd agree with the sentiment of the statement, but I'd slightly amend the meat of it. A bench doesn't necessarily need to provide scoring, and between Antonio Daniels and Jarvis Hayes, they usually get 10 points most games. What is necessary from a bench is a spark; a player who can play 20-25 minutes and potentially provide the necessary offense, defense, rebounding, or playmaking necessary to win a game. In lieu of one player, many teams like Dallas and San Antonio rely on a lot of bench guys to be successful.

Either way, you have to have one or the other to be a successful team. San Antonio makes up for the lack of star power with a ton of options, including Brent Barry, Michael Finley, Fabricio Oberto, Francisco Elson, and Beno Udrih. Dallas is very much the same way, but they also have a potential impact player in Jerry Stackhouse. Phoenix relies on the offensive spark of Leandro Barbosa off the bench to win games for them. The Lakers are at least two deep at every position, and Orlando often gets more production out of bench players like Carlos Arroyo and Keyon Dooling than their starters. Even Utah gets a lot of intangible qualities out of guys like Matt Harpring, Ronnie Brewer, and Paul Millsap, and this change has arguably been one of the catalysts to their sudden improvement. Good teams therefore either need to have one of their best players come off the bench (like Barbosa, Harpring, and Mike Miller on Memphis last year ) or have a multitute of options so that someone invariably emerges every night (the Dallas-San Antonio-LA Lakers strategy).

This is ultimately where the Wizards have failed this year. The offense and defense have struggled, but I think it's all tied back to the bench. Only 7 players on the Wizards have a PER (player efficiency rating) over 10. The Hawks, Nets, Heat, Bobcats, and Sonics are the only teams that have a similar lack of efficiency from their bench.

The Wizards bench can basically be summed up as follows.

• Antonio Daniels: Nice player, a personal favorite, but best suited to being a 7th man. Probably isn't good enough to start on a playoff team. If there were 3 players as good as Daniels on this bench, it would be a solid unit, but there isn't.
• Brendan Haywood: Pretty solid backup center, but way too inconsistent to provide a spark every night.
• Jarvis Hayes: Has been really bad this year, with a PER under 9. He takes too many shots and doesn't make enough of them.
  
• Michael Ruffin: No offensive ability, pretty poor defensive ability, average rebounder, commits tons of fouls, and the team's +/- with him on the floor stinks.
• Calvin Booth: Michael Ruffin, but with slightly more defensive skills and worse rebounding skills.
• Roger Mason, Donnell Taylor, Andray Blatche: Unproven.

With this cast of characters, the Wizards' bench fulfills neither requirement presented above. There are no consistent impact players on the bench, and there isn't enough depth to ensure that the team will get something out of this unit no matter what. Daniels comes closest to being an impact player, but he doesn't really add a new dimension to the team game like Barbosa, Millsap, Ben Gordon, or Jerry Stackhouse do. Haywood is a decent backup center who would be a real asset if the bench was deeper. Hayes and Ruffin receive too many minutes, and nobody else really plays much.

Coming into the season, this wasn't expected to be a problem. At the end of last year, a lack of a bench really killed the Wizards, and Ernie Grunfeld went seeing a remedy to the problem. Songaila and Stevenson were brought in, and combined with the continued maturation of Blatche and the healthy return of Hayes and Etan Thomas, the Wizards were all set to be two-deep at every position. Songaila in particular was a particularly good pickup; he probably would have averaged a solid 10 points and 7 rebounds a game in this system. He would have been a versatile impact player off the bench for the Wizards all year and would have singlehandily significantly upgraded a sore weakness for the Wizards.

Then, Songaila got hurt and threw everything off. Injuries happen, and I'm not blaming the Wizards season on an unfortunate event. But the Wizards have dealt with this setback horribly thus far this season, as Eddie Jordan's shortening of the rotation have put too much strain on the starters all season, which has caused them to press and be prone to spells of inconsistency.

Entering the season, a great point of comparison for the Wizards in terms of their benches were the Sacramento Kings. The biggest knock on Sacramento entering the season was their lack of depth, made possible by a bench that seemed to only include Kenny Thomas and John Salmons. Any injury to their top seven would have potentially killed them. As John Hollinger said:

The Kings are so lacking off the bench, with their best reserve a year ago ([Kevin] Martin) now forced to start. The frontcourt has obvious weaknesses, but the backcourt is no picnic either -- just to have a decent seven-man rotation would require either [John] Salmons or [Francisco] Garcia to play much better than a year ago, or [Quincy] Douby to hit the ground running.

So far this season, the Kings have suffered a loss from one of their top 7 (Brad Miller) and survived okay. Instead of shortening his rotation, coach Eric Musselman lengthened it, giving extended looks to youngsters such as Salmons, Garcia, and Ronnie Price and old relics like Corloss Williamson. The end result is that Williamson has experienced a revival and Price has emerged as a solid backup guard, thereby giving Sacramento more sources for the spark they desperately need. What was once a putrid bench is now a solid one now that Miller has returned to the lineup.

For the Wizards to improve and snap out of their slump, they need to develop the same type of bench Sacramento did when they lost Miller. Eddie Jordan needs to play the young guys more so they can gain experience where they can be potential sparks off the bench for the rest of the season. Instead of playing Michael Ruffin 8 minutes, why not play Andray Blatche? The kid is still raw, but the only way he will significantly improve is if he gets more playing time. Instead of playing the Big 3 over 37 minutes a game each, why not cut their time down to the 35 minute range and give the remaining minutes to Roger Mason and Donnell Taylor? Mason impressed Jordan in camp, but he barely even gets a look now. If he's not going to play, I don't see any reason to have him on the team.

Here's the current average minutes breakdown of the team, rounding up the decimals.

Jamison: 39
Arenas: 38
Butler: 37
Stevenson: 27
Daniels: 27
Thomas: 22
Haywood: 18
Hayes: 16
Ruffin: 8
Blatche: 7
Booth: 6
Taylor: 5
Mason: 5

Here's what I would propose until Songaila comes back.

Arenas: 38
Butler: 36
Jamison: 33
Stevenson: 27
Daniels: 25
Thomas: 22
Haywood: 20
Hayes: 12
Blatche: 12
Mason: 10
Booth: 8
Taylor: 7
Ruffin: 5

In each situation, the total minutes are the same, but the three youngsters, along with Haywood and Booth, see a hike in their minutes. To compensate, Jamison sees his MPG drop by 6 and Ruffin and Hayes see much less of the court than before.

More minutes for the youngsters is the key to improving this team. The Big 3 are currently forced to do too much, and when they're having a bad game, the team suffers significantly. The Wizards need to develop a decent bench, or else their fortunes will continued to be tied to Gilbert Arenas' shooting. The only way to do this is to give Blatche, Mason, and Taylor more playing time in the hope that someone can emerge as a decent threat, a la Ronnie Price. Only then will the Wizards make that jump into the East's upper eschelon.

Why I Love Antonio Daniels

There's a great article in the Washington Post today about Antonio Daniels and his offer to pay for the funeral of former University of Miami star defensive lineman Bryan Pata, who was shot earlier this year. Upon learning that Pata's family was having trouble financially, Daniels, spurred on by the memory of his brother Chris' sudden death in 1996 while playing for the Dayton Flyers, offered to lend a helping hand to the family.

"I was sitting there and all I could think about was his mother," Daniels said. "They were talking about how Miami was going to go ahead and play that next week, and all I thought was, 'What about her?' I thought about my own mother and what my family went through when my brother died. What happens is, life goes on and people forget about the family and the fact that the family is still struggling and life just goes on.

"The next day I'm sitting there getting dressed to leave for a game and I told my wife: 'This is crazy. People are going on with their lives and imagine how his mother must feel.' "

Daniels, who honors his late brother with three tattoos, decided to do something. The next day, through Wizards public relations director Zack Bolno, Daniels reached out to the Pata family and asked what he could do. When Daniels learned that the family has struggled financially, he offered $10,000 to help cover funeral expenses.

If you go to Daniels' website, there is a special page dedicated to the memory of Chris Daniels. I'd recommend reading both pieces, as they shed an incredible light on the persona of Antonio Daniels.

I'm not going to really add much about Antonio Daniels as a person. The article does a great job of painting a picture of AD, and Hoops Addict has more to say about that as well. I will take this time, however, to say why I love Daniels as a basketball player.

In my opinion, Daniels is the third most important player on the Wizards, behind Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. In the last two months of last season and the first month of this season, Antonio Daniels has arguably been the best sixth man in basketball. His stats may not be as good as Mike Miller's last year, and he probably won't win it this year if either Ben Gordon or Leandro Barbosa don't start for over half the year. But to me, it's a crime that Daniels has never won the sixth man award.

When you think of the ideal sixth man, there are a lot of things that come to mind. The late Red Auerbach was the first person to place an importance on a sixth man. On his Boston Celtics teams, the sixth man came in to provide energy and quick scoring ability. Many times, sixth men like Frank Ramsey and John Havlichek led the team in scoring and changed the tide of games. It's hard to argue that Ramsey or Havlichek was the best player on the team, but they still played a huge role on the team.

Nowadays, a sixth man's role is not so easily defined. You have your pure scorers like Barbosa and Gordon, but there are other ways a sixth man can help the team. Detroit's Antonio McDyess is an ace sixth man because of his ability to help out on the glass as well as score inside. Donyell Marshall and Brent Barry come in and simply hit perimeter shots, while Jazz rookie Paul Millsap provides rebounding and toughness. However, one thing that does bind every sixth man together is that they come in to provide a spark of energy, whether it be through scoring, shooting, rebounding, or defense/hustle.

What makes Daniels unique, however, is that he is able to provide a spark in multiple departments. He's instant offense off the bench, but he doesn't need the ball as much as Gordon to be successful. His tough drives and three point plays also provide the type of hustle and grit that can get the Wizards going. When the Wizards are stuck in jump-shooting mode, it is usually Daniels that brings them back (reference the Cleveland and Houston games). He also provides underrated perimeter defense and the type of veteran leadership that a team with an alpha dog like Arenas so desperately needs.

So why doesn't AD get more love? He's simply not as flashy as Gordon or as dynamic as Barbosa or Paul Millsap. He comes in there and simply does his thing night in and night out. As such, you're rarely going to see him on Sportscenter doing anything crazy. At the same time, however, it is a breathtaking drive to the basket that often ignites the Wizards. I routinely wonder how Daniels is able to finish the way he does. He's not slamming anything down, but he has spectacular body control, which allows him to finish around the rim without being called for charging fouls.

It doesn't seem possible that someone can not be flashy while still being an ace sixth man, but Daniels proves that the task can be done. Combine that with his veteran leadership and his incredible generosity off the court, and I'm proud to say that Antonio Daniels plays for my team.

Wizards 87, Wizards 82: The Real Problem is Clear

With 4:45 left in the third quarter, Tracy McGrady's three pointer gave Houston a 15 point lead. The Wizards then went on a 26-12 run to pull to within one point at 72-71 with 5:43 left in the fourth quarter. This was probably the best offensive stretch the Wizards have had on this road trip. But a second glance at the play-by-play of the stretch reveals the very problem the Wizards' offense has had.

During the stretch, here are the facts.

Number of Gilbert Arenas shots during the stretch: 3
Number of Gilbert Arenas points during the stretch: 4
Number of Gilbert Arenas shots the rest of the game: 23

In those 11 minutes, Arenas shot only 3 of the Wizards 15 field goals and scored only 4 of the team's 26 points. Yet during this two game road trip, Arenas has jacked up 51 of the team's 159 shots. Nearly one third of the Wizards shots on this road trip so far have come from the hands of Gilbert Arenas. This all despite the fact that the Wizards best offensive stretch on this road trip came when Arenas was shooting the least.

The problem, therefore, is clear. If the Wizards do much better when everyone is involved in the offense, why is Arenas shooting the ball so damn much? Where is that Princeton-style rhythm offense that was so good last season? How the hell are the Wizards supposed to win games scoring only 87 and 82 points?

When most basketball pundits analyzed the Wizards' potential problems this year, chief among them was the defense. Well guess what. The defense is doing quite well. The Wizards held Dallas to 40 percent shooting last night, and they held Houston to 41 percent shooting and only 86 points tonight. DeShawn Stevenson has been really solid on the wing, and Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood have given the Wizards some semblance of an inside presence. All should be good. But instead, all is bad.

The Wizards can't win on the road right now because Arenas is taking matters completely into his own hands. The Wizards are never going to win by going down the court and adopting the Arenas attitude, jacking up the first decent look they get. There are certainly times when Arenas' quick-scoring ability will be instrumental. Hell, he almost brought the Wizards back with that bank three in the final seconds. There is a reason why you can rarely count the Wizards out of any game.

But you can't do this for 48 minutes. If all you're doing is jacking up shots with 18 seconds left on the shot clock, no matter how good the shot is, you're incredibly easy to defend. Opponents have to expend very little energy on defense and can therefore focus on attacking a suspect Wizards offense. It's no wonder the Wizards have had three games in the 80s on the road this season.

Here's what needs to happen on offense. Antwan Jamison has his faults, for sure, but he is an extremely difficult matchup off the dribble and off the ball for any power forwards. Jamison is at his best hitting open threes or driving to the lane. Instead, Jamison is simply jacking up mid-range jumpers and missing them at an alarming rate. It's as if Arenas' disease is rubbing off on Jamison, who had previously been one of the league's most efficient scorers.

More importantly, the Wizards must get Caron Butler going. Butler is such a tough matchup off the dribble. He's strong enough to post up most threes, but has too good of a mid-range jumper to lay off him. If you get too close to him, he can take it to the hole and is among one of the best finishers in the game. Butler is also a monster on the offensive glass, and his rebounding has been awesome so far this year. There is no reason why he should not be getting 18 shots every game.

Finally, Antonio Daniels, when he's in the game, needs to be utalized offensively. He's among the best slashers and finishers out there and has become adept at the mid-range jumper. It seems like every time the Wizards make a comeback, it is a Daniels drive and three-point play that catalyzes it.

When Arenas shoots the ball 26 times a game, that means fewer shots for those 4 players. The Wizards offense functions best when Arenas is Option 1, Butler option 1A, and Jamison option 1B. When Daniels is in the game, he is usually option 3. The four of them played off each other
so well last year, so I really don't understand why suddenly it's become this bad. Arenas doesn't strike me as the kind of player who will suddenly become big-headed, making this all the more worse. Quite simply, this has baffled everyone, including me.

Oh, and one more thing. I don't think this is Eddie Jordan's fault. Sure, he's made a couple questionable substitution patterns, but it's not his fault if these guys have concentration lapses. Ivan Carter, in his latest Washington Post chat, said it best.

Didn't this guy just take this franchise, which hadn't pissed a drop in decades, to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons? Am I missing something here? Who do you want to hire? Sam Mitchell? Flip Saunders after he's fired in Detroit? Isiah Thomas? Larry Brown? Bill Fitch? Leonard Hamilton? Gene Shue? Kevin Loughery?

I agree 100 percent. There's nobody out there better at this point.

Anyway, I've aired my grievances, and I'm sure you have some, so I'll step aside for now and let you guys have the floor. Consider this an open forum for complaints thus far. I realize it's the time of year to be thankful, but I'm sure people have a lot to say.

[editor's note]: The title is actually the number of points the Wizards scored in the last two games, not the actual game score tonight. I realize it's pretty misleading, but I was trying to illustrate how bad the Wizards offense has been. It is pretty confusing though]

Pistons 100, Wizards 91: Wizards D Cures Ailing Pistons O in Detroit Win

For nearly four full quarters, the Wizards outplayed Detroit last night, but one 13-0 stretch in the third quarter allowed Detroit to pull away for the 9 point victory last night.

I actually thought the Wizards did a lot of things right yesterday. They shot fairly well from two-point range, held Detroit to 43 percent shooting, and won the rebound battle. But two things really went wrong yesterday that cost the Wizards the game.

First, Detroit was an obscene 8 of 16 from three point range. Tayshaun Price and Rasheed Wallace on their own shot 6 of 9. Prince hit two of those threes during that decisive 13-0 third quarter run. I said the Wizards would struggle to defend Richard Hamilton on the perimeter (and they did), but I expected a better effort defending Tayshaun Prince.

The other thing was that the Wizards shot only 21 free throws. For a team that jacks up as many shots as Washington, they need to get to the line more. Arenas was a main culprit, as he only shot 6 free throws on the night. Without Ben Wallace in the middle, the Wizards have no real excuse to not attack the rim. This is not a characteristic problem, but when you combine it with the inability to defend the perimeter, it becomes a much greater problem.

One of these days, I'm going to devote a post to Antonio Daniels. He's arguably the teams most unsung hero, and it feels like he helps bring the Wizards back from a fourth-quarter deficit every night. He did it again tonight with some awesome drives to the basket, especially in the fourth. If only the Wizards had not created a deficit for themselves.

Overall, it's disappointing to lose, but the Wizards did play better. Detroit needed this one badly and it showed. With Cleveland playing really well right now, the Wizards need to match the desire Detroit had last night in tonight's home contest. Both teams are on a back-to-back, so that cannot be an excuse.

Postgame thoughts? What did you take away from yesterday's loss?

Wizards 124, Celtics 117: I liike wiin. It's niice.

As if it needed to be proved again, Gilbert Arenas showed why you can never count him out for too long. After going 2 for 12 and scoring only 7 points against Cleveland, he eruped for 44 points on only 14 made field goals to lead the Wizards to the win in their home opener.

This is your classic Washington Wizards high-scoring victory. They were nearly unstoppable in spurts, especially during the key third-quarter run to make it a double-digit game. However, they were also sloppy at times, allowing Boston way too many open looks. The Wizards needed practically every one of the 93 points the Big 3 put up to win this one.

I didn't watch the whole game, but from what I saw, here's what I liked and didn't like.

I liiiike


-The offense: Well, duh. When I talk about the Wizards' Big 3 clicking on all cylinders, this is what I'm talking about. How often will a team have a guy who scores 44 points, another who nearly gets 30, and a third who gets 20? It speaks to the efficiency of the Big 3 that they're able to all score so many points at the same time. I realize Boston is among the worst defensive teams in basketball, but if they score 73 points combined instead of 93, that will be enough to beat most teams.

-Forced turnovers: The Wizards, for the second game in a row, forced a ton of turnovers, stealing 11 balls and converting on 23 Celtic turnovers. That proved to be the difference in the game. Obviously, this has something to do with the Wizards' gambling style, but if you can force as many turnovers as you do, it can help to disguise a terrible defensive effort.

-Antonio Daniels: I can't stress enough how important a player Daniels is. He can play either the one or the two off the bench and provides solid veteran leadership and defense. Most importantly, Daniels is dynamite instant offense. Because of his slashing and driving nature, he can be counted on for production every game. He gets to the line, doesn't turn it over, and shoots really well from the free-throw line. When the Wizards start to fall into shooting too many jumpers, Daniels is always there to save them.

I nooo liiike

-The open looks: 52 percent from the field? 48 percent from three-point range? All this to the Celtics? This is a problem. Against Cleveland, I actually think the Wizards did a good job of preventing open looks, as I feel like Cleveland (especially Larry Hughes) just hit some tough shots. Tonight, though, it didn't seem like that. There's no way Wally Szczerbiak should have 33 points on 10 of 16 shooting. The Wizards don't really have the big defensive presence necessary to completely shut down the paint (although Brendan Haywood did have 3 blocks), but they can more easily control open shots. Too often, guys were trailing their defenders off the ball, allowing the guy coming off the screen an easy jump shot. This was something that was a point of emphasis all throughout training camp, so it's even more disconcerting to see.

-Rebounding: Understandibly, the Wizards don't have the horses to pound opponents on the glass. However, you have to be able to at least hold your own on the glass to be able to kick-start your high-octane attack. If you don't have the ball, you really can't score. The Celtics should not be outrebounding the Wizards by 15 without arguably their best rebounder in Theo Ratliff. Thomas, for all of the things he does well, does not rebound particularly well on the defensive glass. He should be grabbing way more than 6 rebounds.

-The minutes: Arenas, Jamison, and Butler all played more than 38 minutes last night. If they do that every game, they're going to tire easily. Eddie Jordan needs to show more confidence in guys like Roger Mason, Andray Blatche, and Donnell Taylor in future games. If they can each provide 10 solid minutes, that means more rest for the Big 3

Overall, a win's a win, but it could have been much better.

As for Borat, it's a must see. It's pretty tasteless, but who didn't expect it to be? If you know what to expect, you should love it.

Postgame thoughts? What are your impressions from yesterday's win?

Community Projection: Antonio Daniels

It's tough to know where I go with Daniels. On the one hand, the first four months of last year were basically a lost cause, so it's hard to base a projection on last year's stats. On the other hand, he's getting up there in age and may not need to play as many minutes with DeShawn Stevenson around. I feel like the two will end up cancelling each other out and his stats will look a lot like last year's.

Last year: 9.7 points/3.6 assists/28.9 minutes/84.5 free throw percentage

My projections: 9.1 points/3.4 assists/25 minutes played per game/86% free throw percent

A slight drop in points, but mostly because of a slight drop in minutes from nearly 29 a game down to 25. I think Stevenson will steal some of the crunch time minutes that Daniels dominated last year, depending on the Wizards' opponent. He'll be 31 this year, so as long as he stays healthy, I expect most of his other stats to remain constant. I've heard that AD is in great shape in camp, which could affect his numbers if he can get minutes. Overall, about the same as last year.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Daniels' numbers in each of those categories.

My Wizards Preview is up!

Check out my Washington Wizards preview for NBA Blog Previews here.

Feel free to discuss it either here or there.

[edit]: It's been a really hectic week with two midterms and such, but now that it's over, I'm going to re-post the entire thing here. Enjoy!

The psyche of a Washington basketball supporter is one that is unlike any other in the NBA. Let’s consider the history. One playoff series win from the end of the Bullets Fever era of 78-79 to 2005. No seasons with more than 45 wins since 1979. 10 different head coaches in the last 10 years. One ridiculous name change. These are just a few of the things that drive a Washington fan crazy.

But it’s not just that the Washington franchise has been in a constant state of mediocrity for the better part of the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s. Unlike their mediocre brethren in the Clippers, the Wizards have always had some sort of a novelty among the league. Consider that former stars like Spencer Haywood, Gus Williams, Moses Malone, Bernard King, Rod Strickland, Mitch Richmond, Charles Oakley, and, of course, Michael Jordan all teased the Bullets/Wizards with their star power at the end of their careers. On top of that, whenever the Wizards got it right with a promising young player, they either got hurt (Chris Webber, Gheorghe Muresan), were traded too early (Manute Bol, Muggsy Bogues, Rasheed Wallace, Webber, Richard Hamilton), or underperformed (Juwan Howard, Calbert Cheaney, Kwame Brown). For years, Washington D.C. was essentially the league’s one-stop shop for aging veterans and underachieving youngsters.

If you ever wonder why the guys at Wizznutzz act like they do, try being a fan of Les Bullez for your entire life.

Why do I bring this all up? Because for the first time in ages, the Wizards actually have a real team that should be taken seriously. Sure, Gilbert Arenas is a strange dude, but the guy can play, and he has a ton of help on the court and in the front office. There’s reason for the hometown faithful to be excited about this team, so while I may not be as crazily optimistic as some of the previews so far, I’ll certainly struggle at times to contain my excitement.

Last Year/Offseason

When we last left the Wizards, they came out on the short end of a compelling six-game series against the Cleveland LeBrons…I mean Cavaliers. This loss followed a season where the Wizards were like the yo-yo in Gilbert Arenas’ head; up again, down again, up again, down again, and back up again. Early-season wins against San Antonio and Detroit were the bookends for a five-game losing streak. After falling to 12-18, the Wiz picked it up and put themselves in a prime position to match their 45 wins from the year before until a late 5 game losing streak pushed them down to 42 wins. You never knew which team was going to show up last year, but you knew they would be fun to watch

In the offseason, the Wizards said goodbye to Jared “The Enigma” Jeffries, letting him go to New York, where he will baffle Isaiah Thomas when healthy. In his place, the Wizards signed Darius Songalia from the Bulls and stole DeShawn Stevenson from the Magic for the league minimum. In the draft, the Wizards took two random guys from Europe who both won’t contribute this season.

The Strength of the Offense

It’s obvious that the Wizards’ strength is on the offensive end of the floor. When you have the highest scoring trio in the league for the second consecutive season, your offense is doing something right. What makes Washington particularly consistent offensively is their ability to get to the free throw line. Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antonio Daniels in particular do such a great job of getting to the charity stripe off the dribble without turning the ball over. This allowed the Wizards to finish sixth in the league in scoring ability despite finish 21st in true shooting percentage.

The great thing about this ability is that it doesn’t go away from night to night. Teams will have games where their jump shots aren’t falling. However, because the Wizards attack the basket so well off the dribble, they will rarely be subjected to off nights offensively.

Making this offense even scarier is the potential return of Jarvis Hayes from knee surgery. Without Hayes, the Wizards had trouble kicking the offense into full throttle unless each of the Big Three had monster games. Hayes adds a new dimension to the attack with his instant offense off the bench. He gives the Wizards a spot-up shooter on the wing that will benefit from Arenas’ penetration. Now, if only he could stay healthy…

The Weakness of the Defense

It’s no secret that the Wizards were poor defensively last year. They ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency last year, a ranking they need to raise about 8-10 spots in order to be a real contender.

It’s very easy to judge based on the Cleveland series that the Wizards need a physical, defensive big man to ever get to the next level. While that certainly was a problem in the playoffs, the reality is that there are bigger problems than that with this defense. Getting a big man like Joel Pryzbilla in free agency would not have been the best way to fix the problem.

The biggest problem was that the Wizards allowed far too many open looks at the basket in games. Had the Cavaliers’ shooters been playing at the top of their games, the result of the series could have been worse. For all of Arenas’ strengths offensively, he tends to drift off his man when he’s defending off the ball, allowing them open shot after open shot. Butler struggled with this problem as well, although he’s a much better on the ball defender than Agent Zero. While they both have been extremely dedicated to improving this in training camp, we have yet to see it translate to actual game play, although Arenas’ insistent to guard LeBron in the teams’ preseason game against Cleveland is certainly a good sign.

The other major weakness was on-the-ball defense. Jeffries was hyped as a great perimeter defender, but his sole value was his versatility rather than his man-to-man defense. Butler is a tough defender, but he lapses a lot of the time. DeShawn Stevenson should help, but on the ball defense remains a significant worry.

The Verdict

Many people have the Wizards pegged for a similar season, with a possible drop out of the playoffs. Naturally, I disagree with those predictions. There are those who wonder aloud whether the defense can ever be decent, and while those are legitimate claims, we need not look further than Dallas last season and Seattle the season before to illustrate that teams can improve their defense without making significant changes to the team’s core. In addition, the Wizards had the point differential of a 46-47 win team last year, and I don’t expect them to be as unlucky again. They’ll win more of those close games this season.

I don’t think the Wizards can contend for the title, but I think they will improve on last season. Stevenson gives the Wizards much-needed toughness on the wing, and Hayes’ return will make the offense even better. If Darius Songaila can come back healthy, the Wizards’ frontcourt will also be deeper than before. Throw in anything from Andray Blatche and a healthy return of Etan Thomas, and the frontcourt suddenly isn’t so shallow anymore.

Finally, I expect Caron Butler to have a monster year this season. It took the Wizards half a year to figure out how to use him effectively, and it was no accident that the Wizards’ 5 game losing streak at the end of the season occurred without Butler in the lineup. If he can stay healthy, he should approach 20 points a game and provide strong perimeter defense. It feels like we’ve been waiting on Butler for ages, but with a starting spot ensured and increased familiarity with Eddie Jordan’s offense, I see Butler finally showing his full potential.

There are certainly concerns, yes. The Wizards still aren’t particularly deep and I am concerned about the frontcourt depth, the defense, and the lack of a pure point guard. In addition, Orlando and their young players scare the crap out of me, and Miami is always the Wizards’ kryptonite. However, in the end I think this team will make the city go crazy with basketball fever for the first time in over a quarter of a century.

Predicted Record: 50-32, fourth seed in the East

[image via Yay! Sports]

The preseason keeps on rolling along...

Another day, another meaningless preseason loss for the Wizards, as they fell to the Chicago Bulls 87-86 on Tuesday. The Wiz were leading 86-81 with a minute and a half left until the Bulls put the clamps down defensively and eventually took the lead on an Andre Barrett jumper with 17 seconds left. Roger Mason missed the chance to give the Wizards the win, and the team dropped to 0-2 on the season.

This game was much less interesting and important for the Wizards, as they rested Caron Butler and played Gilbert Arenas and Antwan Jamison 14 and 15 minutes respectively. The Wizards team that was on the floor for the late-game collapse was mostly composed of deep reserves and guys that may not even make the team.

So what can we learn from this game?

-Jarvis Hayes continued his strong preseason with a solid 11 points in only 18 mintes. Ivan Carter obviously believes this is a big story, as he devoted much of his beat article today to Hayes.

-The story essentially was the same for the Bulls game as it was for the Raptors. When the first unit was in the game, the Wizards were a much better team. Once it got down to the reserves, it was a bit of a different story.

Donnell Taylor played a lot of minutes and scored 12 points, but Eddie Jordan was not too happy with his decision-making. This may become a slight problem, because I think Jordan was expecting Taylor to step in and be able to log some minutes this year as Arenas' backup. The Wizards kind of lack that pure point guard, and while Arenas, Antonio Daniels, and Taylor all have point-guard ability, none of them really are distributors. This makes you wonder whether taking Marcus Williams over Oleksey Pecherov may have been the right decision.

Andray Blatche showed more flashes of ability, but still was extremely inconsistent. He grabbed 5 rebounds on the defensive end, but shot only 2 for 9 from the field and somehow found a way to foul out. This isn't summer league, Andray. You don't get unlimited fouls. Ultimately, Blatche probably will take a while to become a real contributor this season. The Wizards should continue to bring him along slowly and hope he can make some noise late in the season.

The reserves as a whole shot 34 percent from the field against Chicago, which is not such a great sign. Mike Hall and Roger Mason struggled all game, shooting a combined 3 for 14. This is not a major concern, but one of the two will likely make the team, making their performances slightly troubling.

Enough preseason, though! I remind everyone of the 10 commandments of the preseason, decreed by Blazers Edge.

Some more Wiz news...

-Antonio Daniels hurt his ankle in practice and is listed as day-to-day. This doesn't sound too serious, but then again, Darius Songalia was also day-to-day early in camp and he's still out with the back injury. Daniels seemed to be playing really well in training camp this year, so let's hope this doesn't set him back anymore.

-The Washington Times is reporting that Peter John Ramos is "not in our plans," according to Ernie Grunfeld. This is pretty sad, actually, because PJM was the brunt of a lot of blogosphere jokes. As far as his playing ability, I trust Ernie Grunfeld, but how in the world can a 7 foot 3 guy on a team starving for physical play not make it? I guess Ramos has absolutely no basketball ability. The article also reports that James Lang is getting a real look for the third center's job, and judging from his playing time yesterday, that makes plenty of sense. Lang is smaller than Ramos, standing only 6'10,'' but he fits in better with the Wizards' scheme.

-Dan Steinberg has even more Gilbert Arenas stuff up today, with a post featuring 10 of the funniest Gilbert Arenas moments of all time. More stuff can be found at this article he linked in the entry. While I think we may be hyping up Arenas' quirkiness a little too early in the season, I loved hearing most of these stories. However, this is by far the best line.

I'm now willing to argue that our humble little market has either the best, most famous or weirdest young star in virtually every pro team sport: from Ovie (best) to Adu (most famous) to Gil and Portis (weirdest). Bloggers go to sleep happy at night with a foursome like that. Thanks, Stealth. Seriously, thanks. And thanks, Esquire.

Truer words have never been spoken. Thank you Dan for putting all our thoughts into words.

-In case you haven't noticed already, Dan and I were both linked on Deadspin today in this post.

-YaySports' Cleveland Cavaliers NBA Blog Preview is up now. Go over to see the Cavaliers fan drink the Queen James coolaid. I like Cleveland this year, but 58 wins? That's pretty bold, if you ask me. Still, I agree that Cleveland could easily be the best team in the league...until they get the Wiz in Round 2 and fall for real this time.

-While the Wizards-Bulls tilt last night may have been a close game, it was not nearly as competitive and nasty as this old clip from a couple years ago. Enjoy this brawl from the 2005 preseason.



What are your thoughts on the Bulls preseason result?

By the way, in case you were wondering, the guy in the picture up at the top is not me.

Training Camp Thus Far

5 days of Bullets training camp is in the books, so let's take a look at how the things I posted to look out for have played out so far.

1. The shooting guard situation

As mentioned yesterday, the job belongs to DeShawn Stevenson. He has been playing the entire time with the first unit in practice, while Jarvis Hayes has been playing with the second unit. Essentially, this was never an issue.

More interesting, however, is who is going to finish games at the shooting guard spot. In the second half of last season, it was Antonio Daniels who played most of the crunch time minutes alongside Gilbert Arenas. Once the Wizards figured out how to use Daniels, he took off, attacking the basket with vigor while rarely turning the ball over.

Ivan Carter reports today that Daniels looks even better so far at camp.

Antonio Daniels looks lighter, stronger and a whole lot quicker than he did at this time last year. He's also far more comfortable with his role on this team. Remember that at this time last year, Jordan was trying to figure out where to play Daniels and Chucky Atkins. It basically took until January to figure it all out. Antonio also got off to a horrible shooting start and, in my opinion, he began to question himself instead of just playing. Now, he's just playing. He's mainly running the second team at the point guard spot. He attacks the basket like always, makes great decisions in the open court and is a leader. I also like what he's done with his jump shot. Remember how the ball tended to come out flat last year? His shot gave him little margin for error. He's getting more evelation and the ball has better arc on it now. I guess he spent the summer working on rebuilding his J and it shows. I'll talk to him about it for an upcoming story.

At the same time, aren't the Wizards going to desperately need Stevenson's perimeter defense in the fourth quarter this season? One of the reasons Daniels played so much at the end of last year was that Jared Jeffries wasn't able to guard the top 2 guards in the league when it mattered. Now that the Wizards have Stevenson, they are better equipped to play against those top wing players. Seeing as how top scoring guards are relied upon more in the fourth quarter in a close game, wouldn't it make more sense to have a defender in than a scorer like Daniels? It's definetly something to keep an eye on.

Most likely, it will depend on the game. If the Wizards have a lead, look for Stevenson to get more fourth quarter minutes. If the Wizards are behind, Daniels may play more. Either way, the Wizards better hope they can find a consistent solution, because they struggled dividing minutes in the backcourt last year.

2. How will minutes be divided in the frontcourt?

This is probably an incomplete right now. Not only is it too early to tell what the frontcourt rotation will be, but the injury to Darius Songalia complicates things. So far, Andray Blatche has been playing with the second unit in Songalia's spot, but as mentioned the other day, Eddie Jordan is tempering his optimism with the youngster.

The other intersting development is that the center spot is still unresolved. I don't know whether the fact that Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood are still fighting for the job is a testament to Haywood's inefficiency or Thomas' strong play. Was Thomas more dedicated to his fitness and therefore now injury free and effective, or was Haywood particularly lazy this offseason and therefore ineffective? As a fan, I'd hope the answer is closer to the former, but considering the way Haywood has teased everyone for 4 years without improving, it could easily be the latter. Either way, the situation is not resolved, and Carter has been surprisingly silent on the play of Thomas and Haywood thus far.

3. Is the defense really improved?

So far, it appears the Wizards are emphasizing the defense more than they ever had. Surprisingly, though, it has been the perimeter defense rather than the interior defense. Assistant coach Kevin O'Neill has been working very closely with Gilbert, Butler, Jamison, and Daniels on their off the ball defense. Carter has mentioned that the biggest problem Arenas in particular had was that he tended to watch the ball and lose his man through screens and double-teams easily. Carter specifically mentioned the Bulls game where Ben Gordon went off in the fourth quarter from the perimeter.

Essentially, the Wizards are a very similar team to the Dallas Mavericks. They are hoping to improve defense from within. O'Neill is no Avery Johnson, but his presence should mean a better overall defense this season. Hopefully, that also will translate to the interior defense, but it still seems that the Wizards are placing a premium on defense in training camp.

4. The mentality

It's early, but so far, so good. From the very beginning, the Wizards have looked focused and seem to be thinking big. Jordan predicted an Eastern Conference Finals berth before training camp and owner Abe Pollin was impressed with the dedication of the team. Today, Carter mentioned how Arenas in particular was playing with a lot of intensity, even during the scrimmages.

Also, even though it was just a training camp practice, Gilbert wanted to win. Badly. Dude was competing hard every time on both ends of the floor. The same can be said of Butler and Jamison. Coaches have to love that out of their stars.

This is the type of thing that could change with an injury or a bad preseason record, but for now, it appears the Wizards are serious about fulfilling Jordan's expectations. Carter also had this to say.

There is a quiet, unspoken air of confidence about this group that I can't quite put a finger on. It just seems that they know they are going to be good. I didn't have that same feeling last year at this time.

5. Gilbert Arenas

Arenas was his old goofy self on the first day, but since then, he's seemed very focused on improving his game. I'm sure we're going to hear more goofy quotes from Arenas during training camp, but he seems to be serious about improving his deficiencies. That's definetly a good sign.

Overall, the Wizards are having a very good training camp, but it's still early. Let's see how they deal with adversity.

In other news, I recorded an interview about the Wizards with Ryan over at Hoops Addict on his Hoops Addict podcast. Give it a listen and tell me what you think.

What are your impressions of training camp so far?

The 2 for 1 swap

For the second time in as many years, the Wizards lost a key member of their starting lineup from the previous season in the off-season. In 2005, it was unrestricted free agent Larry Hughes signing a 5 year, 70 million dollar contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers. This season, it was restricted free agent Jared Jeffries signing a 5 year, 30 million dollar contract with the New York Knicks.

There are a variety of ways a team can deal with the loss of a key starter. Most of the time, the team will try to replace the player with a cheaper alternative. One recent example is Detroit signing Nazr Mohammad after losing Ben Wallace to the Bulls. For 30 million dollars less, the Pistons got a center who isn't quite as good as Wallace, but at least will be serviceable. The Phoenix Suns also did this last offseason. They traded starting shooting guard Joe Johnson to the Atlanta Hawks and replaced him with Raja Bell. Bell ultimately proved to be nearly as good a fit as Johnson, but came with a significantly lower price tag.

Teams also sometimes try to replace the talent lost with similar talent. An example of this is the Pacers signing Al Harrington after losing Peja Stojakovic to the Hornets. Harrington may have slightly different skills than Stojakovic, but the Pacers would most likely content that both players' overall talent is very similar. Another example with the 2006 offseason is the Los Angeles Clippers replacing Vladimir Radmanovic with Tim Thomas. While neither player is a starter, they both have very similar talent levels, as indicated by their nearly identical mid-level contracts.

Sometimes, the team will promote a rookie or a non-starter to the spot. The Sacramento Kings went this route in the offseason. They made little effort to re-sign starting shooting guard Bonzi Wells, electing instead to promote second-string shooting guard Kevin Martin to the starting job. Milwaukee also exercised this option, electing to promote Maurice Williams to the starting point guard job after trading T.J. Ford.

But the Wizards didn't go down any of those routes when replacing their key starters. Instead, realizing that no one player would be a good enough replacement, they engaged in a "two for one trade." Instead of signing only one player, the Wizards decided to acquire two cheaper players to collectively fill the void of the lost starter.

In 2005, signing Larry Hughes would have killed the Wizards payroll flexibility, so Ernie Grunfeld made the wise decision to let Hughes walk to the Cavaliers. However, losing Hughes was a significant blow to the Wizards. Hughes' mid-range and slashing scoring ability would be missed, and so would his defense and his ball-handling. No one player on the free agent market could have possibly replaced all that Hughes offered to the 2005 Wizards. Knowing this, Ernie Grunfeld decided to fill Hughes role with 2 players. He traded for Caron Butler, someone who could help replace Hughes slashing and scoring ability, and then signed Antonio Daniels, a player who could help replace Hughes' playmaking ability.

This offseason, the Wizards explored the same route. The Knicks swooped in quickly on restricted free agent Jared Jeffries, offering him their full mid-level exception. Instead of matching the offer, Grunfeld again went out to search for alternatives. The Wizards would miss Jeffries post defense and wing defense next season, but 30 million dollars was too much to pay for a poor offensive player. Instead, the Wizards signed Darius Songalia to replace Jeffries' post defense, and later signed DeShaun Stevenson to replace Jeffries perimeter defense.

The most logical question is, does this method work? Economically speaking, Grunfeld's bargain-basement scouring has ultimately proved to be very successful so far. Butler has emerged as a better scorer and defender than Hughes, and Daniels has found his stride as a key reserve. On the court, however, it took a while for the new pieces to gell. The Wizards started out very slowly last year. Butler's talents were being wasted on the bench, and Daniels was struggling to find his role. It was only in the second half of the season that Butler starting tearing it up and Daniels found his role. The end result was a team that, while at times better than in 2005, ultimately won 3 fewer games and failed to return to the second round of the playoffs.

What can we expect, then, from this offseason's two-for-one during the season? Like last year, it wouldn't shock me for the Wizards to struggle to find roles for all their players, in addition to just Songalia and Stevenson. Jarvis Hayes, hurt for much of last year, is back, and the Wizards also expect to move Andray Blache into the rotation. With all that uncertainty, it may take a while for Eddie Jordan to settle on a rotation.

That being said, the Wizards should not struggle nearly as much as they did last season. Last year, the Wizards spend half the year trying to replace Hughes' scoring. Butler didn't emerge as a key offensive option until late in the year. This season, the Wizards will have no trouble scoring, with Butler having emerged alongside Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. Defense may be an issue, but Butler is already as good a perimeter defender as Jeffries, and Songalia is a perfect fit for the Wizards scheme. In the end, the two-for-one shouldn't hurt the Wizards too much. They should make the playoffs (not finish with 36 wins, End of the Bench!), and win around 50 games.

Do you think the 2 for 1 swap this offseason will work? Will the Wizards have trouble replacing Jeffries?