Pistons 115, Wizards 111: I'm Getting Nightmares of 2000

No doubt about it, this was a game they needed to have.

The Big 3 all had big games at the same time. Scoring, as a whole, wasn't really a problem. Gilbert Arenas had arguably his most complete game with 28 and 10 assists. Antawn Jamison had 22 and Caron Butler had exactly the type of game I know he can have with 25 points on 12 of 16 shooting. DeShawn Stevenson even chipped in with 15. Offense is solved, right? How could the Wizards lose?

Two uncharacteristic things killed the Wizards. The first was the huge free throw difference. Detroit is really more of a jump shooting team, yet they were able to get to the line 40 times! On the road! They were +18 at the free throw line, which is an insane difference. At some point, the Wizards need to be able to defend without committing too many fouls. Offensively, the Wizards only got to the line 23 times, which is a lot less than usual. Considering this also happened against Memphis, it may be the beginning of the trend.

The second uncharacteristic thing that killed the Wizards were the turnovers. The Wizards forced only 9 turnovers and had 17 of their own. This probably was the main reason why the Pistons were able to score at will on Washington last night. The Wizards were not able to get easy buckets in transition, which is something that has become a trend recently. However, the Wizards still usually take decent care of the ball, which makes the 17 turnovers tonight troubling.

This team is starting to remind me of the 29-53 team of 2000. I went to many home games that year, and after a while, each one started to mold together. The Wizards would fall behind early, be down like 8-10 at the half, and would see the lead baloon to 15 or so in the third quarter. Then, by the end of the quarter, the Wizards reserves would make a run and it would carry over to the fourth quarter. By the middle of the fourth, the lead would be down to 6 or so, and we'd honestly believe the comeback would continue. After a timeout by the opposition (this always happened after a Tracy Murray three...this was simply uncanny), the Wizards would miss a shot to cut it down further and the opponent would close them out eventually. I can't tell you how many games have followed that same pattern this year. It's just unbelievable.

I still think this ship can be rightened. The Wizards played pretty well tonight, to be honest. Detroit is just a super team playing really well right now. They could have beaten nearly any team tonight. There still is more that needs to be done, but the schedule calms down and the Wizards have a lot of home games coming up. A nice run is going to come sooner or later, just like it did last year.

I'd have more to say, but I need to keep watching this Kansas-Florida game. If only the Wizards had an athlete like Julian Wright on their team...


Postgame thoughts? What's your take on tonight?

Wizards 111, Cavaliers 99: Agent Zero Loves Goooold

I guess forgetting to post an open thread is lucky.

Either that, or gold jerseys do something to Gilbert Arenas and the rest of the Wizards, because that was about as satisfying a win as this team has had in a while. The score may be 111-99, but that looks a lot closer than it really was, because Cleveland went on a pointless 14-0 nothing run to close the game.

I said yesterday that despite the loss to Detroit, there were some positive signs. The Wizards shot poorly even by their standards for two straight games, and you had to expect that to turn around simply by the law of averages. The perimeter defense was better Friday, and the Wizards were able to win the rebounding battle. The only thing stopping the Wizards was their own shooting, which was bound to improve after three off nights in a row.

One need not look further than at Arenas to see the difference in shooting yesterday. Arenas was on fire, scoring 45 points and draining 7 of 11 threes. With Larry Hughes injured, there was nobody that could guard Arenas yesterday. Cleveland put LeBron James on Arenas for a stretch, and we all know that the King leaves a little to be desired on the defensive end. Combine all that with the home-court advantage, and it's no surprise that Arenas went off last night.

DeShawn Stevenson was also solid yesterday, with 15 points and really solid perimeter defense. The Wizards did allow Cleveland to shoot 47 percent from the floor, but for the most part, it was guys like Damon Jones and Sasha Pavlovic that had success. Drew Gooden, who gave the Wizards so much trouble in the first matchup, was nowhere to be found. Cleveland also really missed Larry Hughes, who was the real star of the opening day win. The Wizards defended the three well (31 percent) and forced guys like Jones and Pavlovic to beat them. It was a strong defensive scheme and it worked extremely well, especially in the third quarter, where the Wizards made their big run.

I hate to be the guy shooting down all the optimists, but despite blowing out a really good Cavaliers team, the Wizards didn't answer two of the biggest questions surrounding this team.

First, can this team win if Arenas is not shooting the ball well. In the Wizards' four wins this year, Arenas has scored 45, 43, 40, and 29 points. The best teams find ways to win even if their star is having an off night, and I still haven't seen any sign that the Wizards can win if Arenas is struggling. I don't expect Arenas' Jekyll and Hyde routine to continue, but there are going to be plenty of games where he doesn't produce. When that happens, the Wizards need to buckle down and figure out how to grind their way to wins. Caron Butler and Stevenson need to be consistent defensively and still be able to find ways to produce enough offensive scoring.

Secondly, and most importantly, this wasn't a road win. We know the Wizards can destroy even the best teams at home. We know the Wizards shoot better and somehow play much more aggressively in the Verizon Center than they do on the road. Obviously, the Wizards couldn't answer this question tonight, but when you watch this team play at home, it's easy to wonder where this type of effort and scrappiness is when they hit the road. If the Wizards are serious about competing, they need to start winning key road games. This next stretch of games is going to be huge for the Wizards. They desperately need a big win, especially against either Dallas or Houston.

A couple more thoughts:

• I wasn't sure what I thought about the gold jerseys when I first heard about them, but I know now. They're horrendous. Get them out of there. I'm sure UniWatch will be all over these jerseys soon, but I can't understand how gold and black actually makes sense. The colors clash incredibly. A gold jersey like that is blinding on its own, but when you combine it with black, it makes it so much worse. However, if the Wizards contiue to play this well in gold, then I'm all for the unis.
• I'm glad to hear Jarvis Hayes is okay. That spill looked pretty bad, and it was scary to watch him be carted off. Les Bullez is all over Hayes, saying he should have known better than to put himself in that situation. I have to respectfully disagree. There's no way you can expect a competitor like Hayes who is there to bring energy off the bench to suddenly let a guy go right by him. If this was a situation where Cleveland was down 7 with 45 seconds left, where an And 1 would have really hurt, I can understand, but when it's that much of a blowout, the score doesn't even matter anyway. It's unfortunate that Hayes got hurt, but you can't just let someone drive by you without even trying to stop him. I'm happy Jarvis is okay. Now just stop shooting bad jumpers! [edit] Hayes is day-to-day, which probably means he'll miss two months.
  

Postgame thoughts? What did you think of the win?

Community Projection: DeShawn Stevenson

In Orlando last season, Stevenson was a model of consistency, playing in all 82 games, and averaging 11 points a game. It's probable that the relatively high point total is a factor of playing in 32 minutes per game, a number even I doubt Stevenson will achieve this season. However, with Steveson's defense, he should stay on the floor for quite a while and even play key crunch time minutes.

Last Season: 32.3 minutes, 11.0 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 46% field goal percentage

My Projection: 26.7 minutes, 7.2 points, 2.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 48% field goal percentage

I don't expect Stevenson to do much scoring on this team. Orlando didn't have too many other options, so Stevenson averaged a solid amount of points in his time there. I don't really expect that to continue, but I think Stevenson will get a ton of open jumpers, which explain my projected jump in field goal percentage. No matter how many points he scores, Stevenson will see plenty of time because of his defense and toughness on the wing.

Now, it's your turn. Predict Stevenson's numbers in each of those categories.

My Wizards Preview is up!

Check out my Washington Wizards preview for NBA Blog Previews here.

Feel free to discuss it either here or there.

[edit]: It's been a really hectic week with two midterms and such, but now that it's over, I'm going to re-post the entire thing here. Enjoy!

The psyche of a Washington basketball supporter is one that is unlike any other in the NBA. Let’s consider the history. One playoff series win from the end of the Bullets Fever era of 78-79 to 2005. No seasons with more than 45 wins since 1979. 10 different head coaches in the last 10 years. One ridiculous name change. These are just a few of the things that drive a Washington fan crazy.

But it’s not just that the Washington franchise has been in a constant state of mediocrity for the better part of the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s. Unlike their mediocre brethren in the Clippers, the Wizards have always had some sort of a novelty among the league. Consider that former stars like Spencer Haywood, Gus Williams, Moses Malone, Bernard King, Rod Strickland, Mitch Richmond, Charles Oakley, and, of course, Michael Jordan all teased the Bullets/Wizards with their star power at the end of their careers. On top of that, whenever the Wizards got it right with a promising young player, they either got hurt (Chris Webber, Gheorghe Muresan), were traded too early (Manute Bol, Muggsy Bogues, Rasheed Wallace, Webber, Richard Hamilton), or underperformed (Juwan Howard, Calbert Cheaney, Kwame Brown). For years, Washington D.C. was essentially the league’s one-stop shop for aging veterans and underachieving youngsters.

If you ever wonder why the guys at Wizznutzz act like they do, try being a fan of Les Bullez for your entire life.

Why do I bring this all up? Because for the first time in ages, the Wizards actually have a real team that should be taken seriously. Sure, Gilbert Arenas is a strange dude, but the guy can play, and he has a ton of help on the court and in the front office. There’s reason for the hometown faithful to be excited about this team, so while I may not be as crazily optimistic as some of the previews so far, I’ll certainly struggle at times to contain my excitement.

Last Year/Offseason

When we last left the Wizards, they came out on the short end of a compelling six-game series against the Cleveland LeBrons…I mean Cavaliers. This loss followed a season where the Wizards were like the yo-yo in Gilbert Arenas’ head; up again, down again, up again, down again, and back up again. Early-season wins against San Antonio and Detroit were the bookends for a five-game losing streak. After falling to 12-18, the Wiz picked it up and put themselves in a prime position to match their 45 wins from the year before until a late 5 game losing streak pushed them down to 42 wins. You never knew which team was going to show up last year, but you knew they would be fun to watch

In the offseason, the Wizards said goodbye to Jared “The Enigma” Jeffries, letting him go to New York, where he will baffle Isaiah Thomas when healthy. In his place, the Wizards signed Darius Songalia from the Bulls and stole DeShawn Stevenson from the Magic for the league minimum. In the draft, the Wizards took two random guys from Europe who both won’t contribute this season.

The Strength of the Offense

It’s obvious that the Wizards’ strength is on the offensive end of the floor. When you have the highest scoring trio in the league for the second consecutive season, your offense is doing something right. What makes Washington particularly consistent offensively is their ability to get to the free throw line. Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antonio Daniels in particular do such a great job of getting to the charity stripe off the dribble without turning the ball over. This allowed the Wizards to finish sixth in the league in scoring ability despite finish 21st in true shooting percentage.

The great thing about this ability is that it doesn’t go away from night to night. Teams will have games where their jump shots aren’t falling. However, because the Wizards attack the basket so well off the dribble, they will rarely be subjected to off nights offensively.

Making this offense even scarier is the potential return of Jarvis Hayes from knee surgery. Without Hayes, the Wizards had trouble kicking the offense into full throttle unless each of the Big Three had monster games. Hayes adds a new dimension to the attack with his instant offense off the bench. He gives the Wizards a spot-up shooter on the wing that will benefit from Arenas’ penetration. Now, if only he could stay healthy…

The Weakness of the Defense

It’s no secret that the Wizards were poor defensively last year. They ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency last year, a ranking they need to raise about 8-10 spots in order to be a real contender.

It’s very easy to judge based on the Cleveland series that the Wizards need a physical, defensive big man to ever get to the next level. While that certainly was a problem in the playoffs, the reality is that there are bigger problems than that with this defense. Getting a big man like Joel Pryzbilla in free agency would not have been the best way to fix the problem.

The biggest problem was that the Wizards allowed far too many open looks at the basket in games. Had the Cavaliers’ shooters been playing at the top of their games, the result of the series could have been worse. For all of Arenas’ strengths offensively, he tends to drift off his man when he’s defending off the ball, allowing them open shot after open shot. Butler struggled with this problem as well, although he’s a much better on the ball defender than Agent Zero. While they both have been extremely dedicated to improving this in training camp, we have yet to see it translate to actual game play, although Arenas’ insistent to guard LeBron in the teams’ preseason game against Cleveland is certainly a good sign.

The other major weakness was on-the-ball defense. Jeffries was hyped as a great perimeter defender, but his sole value was his versatility rather than his man-to-man defense. Butler is a tough defender, but he lapses a lot of the time. DeShawn Stevenson should help, but on the ball defense remains a significant worry.

The Verdict

Many people have the Wizards pegged for a similar season, with a possible drop out of the playoffs. Naturally, I disagree with those predictions. There are those who wonder aloud whether the defense can ever be decent, and while those are legitimate claims, we need not look further than Dallas last season and Seattle the season before to illustrate that teams can improve their defense without making significant changes to the team’s core. In addition, the Wizards had the point differential of a 46-47 win team last year, and I don’t expect them to be as unlucky again. They’ll win more of those close games this season.

I don’t think the Wizards can contend for the title, but I think they will improve on last season. Stevenson gives the Wizards much-needed toughness on the wing, and Hayes’ return will make the offense even better. If Darius Songaila can come back healthy, the Wizards’ frontcourt will also be deeper than before. Throw in anything from Andray Blatche and a healthy return of Etan Thomas, and the frontcourt suddenly isn’t so shallow anymore.

Finally, I expect Caron Butler to have a monster year this season. It took the Wizards half a year to figure out how to use him effectively, and it was no accident that the Wizards’ 5 game losing streak at the end of the season occurred without Butler in the lineup. If he can stay healthy, he should approach 20 points a game and provide strong perimeter defense. It feels like we’ve been waiting on Butler for ages, but with a starting spot ensured and increased familiarity with Eddie Jordan’s offense, I see Butler finally showing his full potential.

There are certainly concerns, yes. The Wizards still aren’t particularly deep and I am concerned about the frontcourt depth, the defense, and the lack of a pure point guard. In addition, Orlando and their young players scare the crap out of me, and Miami is always the Wizards’ kryptonite. However, in the end I think this team will make the city go crazy with basketball fever for the first time in over a quarter of a century.

Predicted Record: 50-32, fourth seed in the East

[image via Yay! Sports]

Training Camp Thus Far

5 days of Bullets training camp is in the books, so let's take a look at how the things I posted to look out for have played out so far.

1. The shooting guard situation

As mentioned yesterday, the job belongs to DeShawn Stevenson. He has been playing the entire time with the first unit in practice, while Jarvis Hayes has been playing with the second unit. Essentially, this was never an issue.

More interesting, however, is who is going to finish games at the shooting guard spot. In the second half of last season, it was Antonio Daniels who played most of the crunch time minutes alongside Gilbert Arenas. Once the Wizards figured out how to use Daniels, he took off, attacking the basket with vigor while rarely turning the ball over.

Ivan Carter reports today that Daniels looks even better so far at camp.

Antonio Daniels looks lighter, stronger and a whole lot quicker than he did at this time last year. He's also far more comfortable with his role on this team. Remember that at this time last year, Jordan was trying to figure out where to play Daniels and Chucky Atkins. It basically took until January to figure it all out. Antonio also got off to a horrible shooting start and, in my opinion, he began to question himself instead of just playing. Now, he's just playing. He's mainly running the second team at the point guard spot. He attacks the basket like always, makes great decisions in the open court and is a leader. I also like what he's done with his jump shot. Remember how the ball tended to come out flat last year? His shot gave him little margin for error. He's getting more evelation and the ball has better arc on it now. I guess he spent the summer working on rebuilding his J and it shows. I'll talk to him about it for an upcoming story.

At the same time, aren't the Wizards going to desperately need Stevenson's perimeter defense in the fourth quarter this season? One of the reasons Daniels played so much at the end of last year was that Jared Jeffries wasn't able to guard the top 2 guards in the league when it mattered. Now that the Wizards have Stevenson, they are better equipped to play against those top wing players. Seeing as how top scoring guards are relied upon more in the fourth quarter in a close game, wouldn't it make more sense to have a defender in than a scorer like Daniels? It's definetly something to keep an eye on.

Most likely, it will depend on the game. If the Wizards have a lead, look for Stevenson to get more fourth quarter minutes. If the Wizards are behind, Daniels may play more. Either way, the Wizards better hope they can find a consistent solution, because they struggled dividing minutes in the backcourt last year.

2. How will minutes be divided in the frontcourt?

This is probably an incomplete right now. Not only is it too early to tell what the frontcourt rotation will be, but the injury to Darius Songalia complicates things. So far, Andray Blatche has been playing with the second unit in Songalia's spot, but as mentioned the other day, Eddie Jordan is tempering his optimism with the youngster.

The other intersting development is that the center spot is still unresolved. I don't know whether the fact that Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood are still fighting for the job is a testament to Haywood's inefficiency or Thomas' strong play. Was Thomas more dedicated to his fitness and therefore now injury free and effective, or was Haywood particularly lazy this offseason and therefore ineffective? As a fan, I'd hope the answer is closer to the former, but considering the way Haywood has teased everyone for 4 years without improving, it could easily be the latter. Either way, the situation is not resolved, and Carter has been surprisingly silent on the play of Thomas and Haywood thus far.

3. Is the defense really improved?

So far, it appears the Wizards are emphasizing the defense more than they ever had. Surprisingly, though, it has been the perimeter defense rather than the interior defense. Assistant coach Kevin O'Neill has been working very closely with Gilbert, Butler, Jamison, and Daniels on their off the ball defense. Carter has mentioned that the biggest problem Arenas in particular had was that he tended to watch the ball and lose his man through screens and double-teams easily. Carter specifically mentioned the Bulls game where Ben Gordon went off in the fourth quarter from the perimeter.

Essentially, the Wizards are a very similar team to the Dallas Mavericks. They are hoping to improve defense from within. O'Neill is no Avery Johnson, but his presence should mean a better overall defense this season. Hopefully, that also will translate to the interior defense, but it still seems that the Wizards are placing a premium on defense in training camp.

4. The mentality

It's early, but so far, so good. From the very beginning, the Wizards have looked focused and seem to be thinking big. Jordan predicted an Eastern Conference Finals berth before training camp and owner Abe Pollin was impressed with the dedication of the team. Today, Carter mentioned how Arenas in particular was playing with a lot of intensity, even during the scrimmages.

Also, even though it was just a training camp practice, Gilbert wanted to win. Badly. Dude was competing hard every time on both ends of the floor. The same can be said of Butler and Jamison. Coaches have to love that out of their stars.

This is the type of thing that could change with an injury or a bad preseason record, but for now, it appears the Wizards are serious about fulfilling Jordan's expectations. Carter also had this to say.

There is a quiet, unspoken air of confidence about this group that I can't quite put a finger on. It just seems that they know they are going to be good. I didn't have that same feeling last year at this time.

5. Gilbert Arenas

Arenas was his old goofy self on the first day, but since then, he's seemed very focused on improving his game. I'm sure we're going to hear more goofy quotes from Arenas during training camp, but he seems to be serious about improving his deficiencies. That's definetly a good sign.

Overall, the Wizards are having a very good training camp, but it's still early. Let's see how they deal with adversity.

In other news, I recorded an interview about the Wizards with Ryan over at Hoops Addict on his Hoops Addict podcast. Give it a listen and tell me what you think.

What are your impressions of training camp so far?

5 Things To Watch in Training Camp

In honor of the beginning of Wizards training camp (kicking off with Gilbert Arenas' amusing comments), here are a few things that Bullets Fever thinks you should keep an eye on as a Wizards fan.

1. The shooting guard situation

The Wizards, barring injury, have 4/5 of their starting lineup set. Gilbert Arenas will start at point guard, Caron Butler will start at one wing spot, Antwan Jamison will start at the 4, and Brendan Haywood, for better or for worse, will start at center. The one spot that is unresolved right now is at shooting guard. Last season, Butler was the starting shooting guard and Jared Jeffries started as a glorified small forward. Now that Jeffries is with the Knicks, there is an opening next to Butler, who seems likely to slide from the 2 to the 3.

It appears at this point that the battle will be between holdover Jarvis Hayes and newcomer DeShaun Stevenson. Stevenson started all 82 games for Orlando last year and gives the Wizards a strong wing defender and a much more versatile shooting guard than they had last year. But don't count out Hayes, who was given the starting job over Butler last year before hurting his knee. All indications are that he's all the way back and is having no problems with his surgically repaired knee. This should be a battle throughout the end of camp.

My early prediction is that Stevenson will win the job. His perimeter defense will be essential in stopping guys like Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, and Vince Carter. While he is limited offensively, scoring should not be a problem with Arenas, Jamison, and Butler in tow. I see Stevenson being a Trenton Hassell or Quinton Ross-type player this season. Hayes will ultimately be an extremely important player off the bench, and in my opinion, it suits him well. The Wizards struggled with their depth last season, playing only 7 guys when the playoffs rolled around. In getting Hayes back, they are increasing their depth and scoring punch from their bench. When the Wizards need an offensive spark, they should turn to Hayes.

This situation should not be resolved for some time, but keep an eye on it. Fantasy owners should root for Hayes to get the job, but in my opinion, the Wizards will be better off with Stevenson in the starting lineup.

2. How will minutes be divided in the frontcourt?

It became evident in the playoff loss to the Cavaliers last season that the Wizards needed to increase their toughness up front. Over the offseason, the only thing the Wizards did in free agency to solve that problem was to sign Darius Songalia, who was recently profiled in the Post. Improvements, therefore, must come from within, and with Songalia, Jamison, Brendan Haywood, Michael Ruffin, Etan Thomas, and possibly Calvin Booth or non-roster invite Robert "Tractor" Traylor all in the mix, the division of minutes should be interesting.

It seems pretty obvious that Jamison and Haywood will start. From the looks of things, Songalia will be the first big man off the bench. He doesn't directly address the toughness issue, but is a very good fit in the Wizards' system and, at the very least, provides the Wizards with the frontcourt depth they really lacked last season. He should play a lot next to Jamison this season.

Beyond Songalia, it's anyone's guess what happens. The Wizards could really use a resurgence from Etan Thomas. Of all the players on the team, Thomas is the closest thing to the Wes Unseld/Ben Wallace-type junkyard dog. He has struggled to stay healthy and be productive since signing a big contract after the 2004 season, but he is completely healthy now and hopefully can become a key frontcourt reserve. In lieu of a Thomas resurgence, it appears the Wizards may once again have to rely on Michael Ruffin. Ruffin plays hard, but is undersized and is not much of a defensive presence. For the Wizards sake, they better hope that Thomas can come back and play meaningful minutes this season.

3. Is the defense really improved?

The players seem to be saying all the right things now, but will we see a better defensive team this season? Signing Stevenson will upgrade the perimeter defense significantly. Jeffries was valuable for his versatility, but he struggled guarding the top perimeter scorers in the game. With Stevenson and Caron Butler, the Wizards have two tough perimeter defenders that will make things difficult for the top guards in the East.

Most people are looking to the frontcourt for defensive improvements, but Michael Wilbon says that improvement needs to start with the team's star, Gilbert Arenas. If Arenas is committed to raising his defensive game, the Wizards will follow him and become tougher and meaner. I had never really thought of it that way, but it's probably true. Arenas does need to become a better defender at the point position.

However, the interior defense is not simply going to become a top unit overnight just because Gilbert Arenas says so. Songalia says that he is going to bang and do the dirty work, but he averaged only 4 rebounds per game last year. Getting more out of Etan Thomas would be nice, but it's probably a bonus at this point. In the end, it has to be a group effort. Songalia needs to become a slightly better rebounder, Brendan Haywood needs to be more consistent, and Thomas needs to get back to the level he was at two years ago. If all three of those players have good training camps, I will be confident. Otherwise, we may see the same problems we saw in the playoffs last season.

4. The mentality

This training camp has a different feel to it already. Players have come out and said that the Wizards are serious about being an Eastern Conference contender. Arenas and Butler both underwent grueling training over the offseason, and both should be better players this year. Will this positive energy continue? My guess is that it will. This team seems more highly motivated than any Wizards team in history. Hopefully it will translate on the court.

5. Gilbert Arenas

Certainly, we should keep track of Arenas' post-practice interview sessions to see what he'll say, as he's already provided a few gems. Other than that, however, Arenas will be a key player in training camp. He is the leader of this team and supposidely is going to play with a chip on his shoulder. What is that ultimately going to mean? Will he simply try to stick it to the Blazers and Suns and work simply on his scoring, or will we see him becoming a more complete player this season? Is he committed to his defense and spreading the ball around? We all know Arenas can score with the best players in the league, but is this the year he really becomes an all-around star like Kobe or Wade? So far, it seems like it will be, but you never know with Gilbert. This will certainly be something to keep an eye on all season.

Who wins the starting shooting guard spot? Who should see the majority of the minutes there?

The 2 for 1 swap

For the second time in as many years, the Wizards lost a key member of their starting lineup from the previous season in the off-season. In 2005, it was unrestricted free agent Larry Hughes signing a 5 year, 70 million dollar contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers. This season, it was restricted free agent Jared Jeffries signing a 5 year, 30 million dollar contract with the New York Knicks.

There are a variety of ways a team can deal with the loss of a key starter. Most of the time, the team will try to replace the player with a cheaper alternative. One recent example is Detroit signing Nazr Mohammad after losing Ben Wallace to the Bulls. For 30 million dollars less, the Pistons got a center who isn't quite as good as Wallace, but at least will be serviceable. The Phoenix Suns also did this last offseason. They traded starting shooting guard Joe Johnson to the Atlanta Hawks and replaced him with Raja Bell. Bell ultimately proved to be nearly as good a fit as Johnson, but came with a significantly lower price tag.

Teams also sometimes try to replace the talent lost with similar talent. An example of this is the Pacers signing Al Harrington after losing Peja Stojakovic to the Hornets. Harrington may have slightly different skills than Stojakovic, but the Pacers would most likely content that both players' overall talent is very similar. Another example with the 2006 offseason is the Los Angeles Clippers replacing Vladimir Radmanovic with Tim Thomas. While neither player is a starter, they both have very similar talent levels, as indicated by their nearly identical mid-level contracts.

Sometimes, the team will promote a rookie or a non-starter to the spot. The Sacramento Kings went this route in the offseason. They made little effort to re-sign starting shooting guard Bonzi Wells, electing instead to promote second-string shooting guard Kevin Martin to the starting job. Milwaukee also exercised this option, electing to promote Maurice Williams to the starting point guard job after trading T.J. Ford.

But the Wizards didn't go down any of those routes when replacing their key starters. Instead, realizing that no one player would be a good enough replacement, they engaged in a "two for one trade." Instead of signing only one player, the Wizards decided to acquire two cheaper players to collectively fill the void of the lost starter.

In 2005, signing Larry Hughes would have killed the Wizards payroll flexibility, so Ernie Grunfeld made the wise decision to let Hughes walk to the Cavaliers. However, losing Hughes was a significant blow to the Wizards. Hughes' mid-range and slashing scoring ability would be missed, and so would his defense and his ball-handling. No one player on the free agent market could have possibly replaced all that Hughes offered to the 2005 Wizards. Knowing this, Ernie Grunfeld decided to fill Hughes role with 2 players. He traded for Caron Butler, someone who could help replace Hughes slashing and scoring ability, and then signed Antonio Daniels, a player who could help replace Hughes' playmaking ability.

This offseason, the Wizards explored the same route. The Knicks swooped in quickly on restricted free agent Jared Jeffries, offering him their full mid-level exception. Instead of matching the offer, Grunfeld again went out to search for alternatives. The Wizards would miss Jeffries post defense and wing defense next season, but 30 million dollars was too much to pay for a poor offensive player. Instead, the Wizards signed Darius Songalia to replace Jeffries' post defense, and later signed DeShaun Stevenson to replace Jeffries perimeter defense.

The most logical question is, does this method work? Economically speaking, Grunfeld's bargain-basement scouring has ultimately proved to be very successful so far. Butler has emerged as a better scorer and defender than Hughes, and Daniels has found his stride as a key reserve. On the court, however, it took a while for the new pieces to gell. The Wizards started out very slowly last year. Butler's talents were being wasted on the bench, and Daniels was struggling to find his role. It was only in the second half of the season that Butler starting tearing it up and Daniels found his role. The end result was a team that, while at times better than in 2005, ultimately won 3 fewer games and failed to return to the second round of the playoffs.

What can we expect, then, from this offseason's two-for-one during the season? Like last year, it wouldn't shock me for the Wizards to struggle to find roles for all their players, in addition to just Songalia and Stevenson. Jarvis Hayes, hurt for much of last year, is back, and the Wizards also expect to move Andray Blache into the rotation. With all that uncertainty, it may take a while for Eddie Jordan to settle on a rotation.

That being said, the Wizards should not struggle nearly as much as they did last season. Last year, the Wizards spend half the year trying to replace Hughes' scoring. Butler didn't emerge as a key offensive option until late in the year. This season, the Wizards will have no trouble scoring, with Butler having emerged alongside Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler. Defense may be an issue, but Butler is already as good a perimeter defender as Jeffries, and Songalia is a perfect fit for the Wizards scheme. In the end, the two-for-one shouldn't hurt the Wizards too much. They should make the playoffs (not finish with 36 wins, End of the Bench!), and win around 50 games.

Do you think the 2 for 1 swap this offseason will work? Will the Wizards have trouble replacing Jeffries?